Member Info for NicetoMichu

Two months after dumping my remaining small holding I'm today back again.. fool that I may be ( but I've been lucky through the carnage here in being around about b/e - incluidng much short term range trading to save my neck granted - in my involvement here altougether so far and so try my luck one more time.. fool that I could easily be.)

Just looked thru history and don't see Brasso posting here since mid March, which is a pity - as he was best poster by miles imho, living in the real world mostly which was refreshing on this BB - but understandable I guess given the latest - of endless - capitalisation(s) here. I hope you're ok if you're still checking in here Brasso. (Stockable posted occassionally here too, and he was always excellently insightful too, in fairness )

Small first bet only placed and will look to top up bit by bit over time.. would add more on weakness than strength in truth.. and would like to have an average of under 1.5p.

I know I've said this before a lot and been wrong again and again but this s/p seems awfully low at anything under 2p... that said, this is a brutal share in a brutal game.. sadly.

Good spot God Willing and thanks for posting..

I was expecting an awful RNS yesterday afternoon or this morning, in truth.. but none has come ..
So some small hope still I'd offer.. and its never over until it's officially over.

So hard to say what this does or doesn't mean ... or should I say might or might'nt mean...

I think it considerably rules out what Viveka would refer to as a 'chancers low ball offer' by CMS for MTPH, as in one that the majority of shareholders might easily vote down.. as CMS would match whatever vote now and in that eg would therefore vote their own offer down.

For arguments sake, I'm going to jump one step further and offer that this makes CMS less likely than more to offer to buy out MTPH entirely....

that doesn't have to be the case of course as a good outright offer would be voted through by the rest of shareholders anyway...

but if it is the case, then I'd be disappointed as I saw them as a potentially somewhat obvious outright buyer for Mtph

Altogether, my GUESS might be they're leaving the road free for other bidder(s) for the company entirely or one/ some of its assets, if there are to be others..

...but there are so many ways this can play out from here anyway .. including of course just an asset or two etc sale buy the co. to strengthen their cash position and then carry on independently as they see fit.. of another JV/licencing arrangement that gives them up front cash etc.. ….again, there are a plethora of things that can happen from here..

(If delisting etc..)
shafted by Co-Vid 19 more than anything?

many, many other businesses in many industries the same I'd guess.. very sadly

Who'd have predicted this co-vid 19 situation in advance ..

The main regret I'd have is not selling out a week or three ahead of the AIM suspension... because the mess to come was at least somewhat foreseeable then..

and not doing that is my own bad... so I suffer the consequences.. and hopefully get some wins elsewhere to make good on this, likely - but not yet certain ? - punchy hit

On reflection, total Debt of $5m doesn't strike me as redicuolous from my hazy memory of last accounts.

Altogether, I'm guessing that means they'll delist the company from AIM because of an 'administration process' asset sell off up to / including outright sale of Bagir production business including Brands, Production IP etc

Bagir still maintaining a small online sales operation is unlikely to be basis for maintaining the listing on AIM, I guess ...and may indeed be that private business angle of Israel based directors and key staff maintaining some sort of employment for themselves. (Put existing stock into that entity and keep away from asset sale process as a starter position maybe :-) )

And, if delisting, only if more cash realised from that sale(s) of plant / machinery / raw material stock / design IP etc in those bagir clothes producing countries than that $5m outstanding debts would shareholders get anything back whenever well further down the line... I guess

I have no idea how much the plant / machinery/ IP / brands value - peckham rye is a catchy name for eg ? - etc will sell for in total but guess it's less than $5m, especially in this environment?

So a total write off of my full bet here extremely likely.. but maybe some small chance of some small pence in pound back some ways down the line.

Or great if by some miracle they maintain the AIM listing and the asset sales come in at over $5m and the online business that now becomes the basis of the AIM listing business does very well in the future ?

luck counts would throw all his in the pot for any buyback scheme I expect.. no more ranting here by him might swing AK to go for it even :-)

Meaningful buying pressure from a buyback would in itself push the share price up quickly/punchily imho... so for eg they would be buying back few at 7p and maybe even some as high as 15+p .. I see merit in this idea .. but ONLY if the free cash flow is ACTUALLY at or close to where they are forecasting.. roll on those audited accounts !

CE even as in Caveat Emptor

fine post imho CB ….and much appreciated

Short-term bet money exiting stage left for pastures new perhaps?

How low this might go is the key question for me... in terms of adding back some of what I sold?

(News can of course come at any time but my reading of the RNS is after results would be more likely than before)

(I've answered that question here somewhat recently.. and viveka too .. so you can see in history.. and that traipse back thru also a good opportunity for you to get more colour generally here perhaps )

If it's over £5 what happens is we all go up the George Inn and laugh our way back through the journey here over plenty of pints.. with the great man himself as chairman

( and yes I do believe pubs will be open again if/when a £5 plus total sell up deal here completes)

Or if Emergex make an offer of £5 they disregard their warrants and just make a counter offer at £5.50 ..etc ??

I'm still locked and loaded here and very - very - patiently waiting .

The first thing that always comes to mind here is 'Something bottom line meaningful has to happen soon'. (Indeed, if I had a pound for every time that was said/thought here I'd wouldn't be bothering with betting on AIM any more :-))

Well history teaches us: it doesn't actually; and altogether progress here is pathetically slow generally.

But CB might still be 'a wily olde coyote' (and yes I am very aware in the cartoon that Wily E Coyote great plans to capture the road runner unravel again and again and again...)

Towards finishing on a positive :

My GUESS remains that CB is in ongoing negotiations to sell Manica and indeed switch the focus to cooper. ( and those negotiations are going averagely and will only get over the line if he compromises on his valuations.. which he will somewhat do in the end.. but still get a decent deal done)

''Silverknight is right to suggest that there is a realistic chance that a chancer will make a low-ball offer and justify it on this unrealistically low share price. ''

The world is, alas, full of chancers Viveka

eg most of the people playing AIM are huge chancers, whether they understand it or not.

Speaking of, while I still believe the assets here are worth WAY more than £1, I also believe that plenty of the money that has come in here recently is short term bet money that's very flighty .. so chancer that I am I've sold more of these than I intended to in the hope that I get to buy plenty back at anywhere around 40p.. (I've kept a base tranche of course) I may easily be wrong .. and c'est la vie if I am....And I very much hope that the very long suffering here get their money back one way or other in the end

Again Viveka, your posting here is simply brilliant imho..

Obviously, as you note, short term traders have a totally different view on the world than medium/long term investors though....

(Again, I'm a bit of both : Over half my pot here has for a long time been - and still is - for short term trading.... but from June onwards I'll switch that to decently less than half, I expect)

thanks for the feedback on government contracts or not btw NS...I've not looked at ECK and don't intend to .. this is my bet in this space and I'll hope for the best from here forward.. much chance involved in all these bets of course.. 'surround me with lucky generals only'

there absolutely needs to be multiple bidders involved for attaining some or all the assets here..
or else there's a big chance assets will be sold on the cheap imho..

I guess/hope there will be and I expect that will elongate the sale process somewhat... fine by me if that gets a good price for all or some of the assets in the end.

''So if cms and a@b wish to take their holdings to 69.4% then they have to pay £10 a share to take them there.''
Or they just bid a pound or two or three etc for the remaining 55% of MTPH shares they don't already own and their bid might easily be accepted .
(Those warrants are effectively dead in my mind now btw)

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-cyber/state-backed-hackers-targeting-coronavirus-workers-u-s-and-uk-warn-idUKKBN22H1QS?il=0

Does Flx not have some government/public service departments on contract already ? Are Health related ones amongst them ? Maybe that will help flx get more business one way or other... also note the working from home angle concern at end of above piece.. ties in with what Ron MacD said here on home working generally opportunities a few weeks back.. so more opportunity again from that, hopefully...

I continue to add slowly but surely here..

I have high hopes for this stock.. in a sector that is clearly in favour now, and with next tranche funding in hand and progress clearly attainable off the back, I'm hoping for a meaningful wake up of this s/p soon enough... not least as it seems at a very low level generally ( at anywhere in 20-25p range)

DYOR and good luck to all fellow holders

Thanks Viveka,
I'd forgotten which was with which but now you mention I vaguely remember you getting to the bottom of this previously through your excellent diligence. and great that you remind me here now.