Member Info for NicetoMichu

Hopefully he's not planning on using the Forest new player numbers in last summer as his benchmark for the drill 'oles numbers he feels he needs down the Bush(ranger) this time round to crack the Ascot etc code :-)

That bottom fishing has gone badly, so far for me NoelS, obviously.

(off approx. 750 gbp on my 3k gbp bet here... but given my overall p/f is down approx 70 k gbp in this tax year so far - and only 3 weeks to go, it's a rotter now whatever - you can trust me when I say this bet is incidental/academic to me.. my worst - tax - year so far playing this game, alas.. fortuntely I've had some very good ones.. so, such is life on AIM is all I got to offer in my defence .. and nobody is making me play this game.. and place the BETS I do on the stocks I do.. etc ..and you don't realise whatever loss/gain until you actually sell .. and i'll not be selling much generally for a long time yet, as I can well afford to be very patient, fortunately .. etc..)

If Wise Owl see himself as judge who oversee this matd.l Bulletin Board, does that make him Simon C-Owl of our BB?

Q1 'sales' last year were huge..off the back of Russia invading Ukraine in Feb.. Q1 invoiced sales last year a very - very - different thing, I now understand.. but all the orders in Q1 meant that the rest of the quarters therefore suffered significantly.. so last year was very outlying/squewed in many shapes and forms, seemingly ... and, generally speaking, that complicates things a lot for comparisons to this year, imho.

More generally, I can get why you might think 20kt invoiced sales in this quarter might be a decent result.. but I wouldn't go as far as saying I can get how you'd se it as a 'good' result .. and even if the market gets that this would be decent, I'd be surprised - if such came to pass- if it was the basis of any sort of a rally from the 7 to 9 p s/p range we're around now sitting in. (But some sort of dividend announcement too and annual invoiced sale target being maintained might change my mind somewhat on that view)

IMHO & DYOR

Conceptually I get what you're saying, but as we don't have the figures to compare, it won't be all about that Mike?

(I sold some today.. not a lot as I still believe reasonably strongly here..especially from q3 2023 on.. but Q1 feels complicated to me towards getting a decent s/p rally.. q2 and especially q3 invoiced sales I'm now more interested in.. and am open to adding back off the back of those, if I feel it appropriate.. Generally, this is a medium priority play for me now, only.. it was high peiority last year..)

The very obvious mechanism of showing serious - and bottom line - progress here is Fairbride ' Ard rock revenue.. it should already be increasing punchily month on month for a few months now.. and should be within a few months of getting to approx 250k + gbp nett to xtr revenue .. and that - and maybe more on top of that - be sustainable for years therafter.. that would be very meaningful progress indeed for a company the size of xtr !

( the fact that revenue will likely be spent for many months to come on Bushranger is what it is, but, in the round, still makes sense to me.. and spending all of it - nett of xtr salaries/admin etc - might well be to the extent of max. 2m gbp over the remaining 10 months ish of 2022.. which is enough, frankly, for a company the size of xtr to be spending on Bushranger, especially that on top of 8m gbp ish ? already spent there )

if q1 comes in at say 25kt to 35kt range invoiced sales, and also annual targets are maintained, then i'd be surprised if the s/p rallies decently off the back.. what they might say around a dividend on top would have some s/p impact on top too granted.

(If q1 comes in at over 35kt sales then I see a good case for a decent/good s/p rally here .. If q1 comes in at less than 25kt invoiced sales then this s/p could fall somewhat under 8p imho.. even if full year guidance was maintained.. if it wasn't maintained then the s/p could fall back semi punchily imho)

It makes sense to me to do at least one stage further 'complete' the process on Bushranger definition Maddogpete.. but perhaps only to the extent of max 2m gbp more spend on it.. but, as you say, the extent of any bull commodities market to come and/or the results of this next phase drilling will further clarify thinking on next actions re bushranger, later in 2023 or in 2024.

PS: The extent of grow out of revenue from fairbride 'ard - nett to xtract - in the coming months is a s/p key driver now imho... CB should be giving colour on that in April .. he may not of course .. because he does what he feels like whenever .. which generally plays out to be, at best, bang average information flow managment on his part, alas..

The least I value Africa Gold assets at is 15 to 20 m gbp.

(While Fairbride Gold output grow out has likely seen a slow start, there remains a good chance that we'll get to 250k gbp + revenue nett to xtr a month from Mozambique Gold at or before mid this year.... and similar for at least 5 years to come thereafter..hence my 15 - 20m gbp valuation)

So, with market cap of xtr currently at 13m gbp ish, I see the market currently valuing Bushranger at approx minus 5m ish gbp ie that much more will be spent on it and it will be worth zero after that.

Further so, including say, all in, 8m ish gbp ? spent already on Bushranger, making 13m ish gbp spend in total, for zero sell on value .

Generally, it remains very hard for me to see this as fair or reasonable. But the market share price is the benchmark we all play the game against, and it is what it is.,whenever

(Again, I'm confident the least the sell on value for Bushranger will be is 10 to 15m gbp - the most I see its sell on value, in due course, would be 100m gbp btw - so I do not think that under 2.5p is a fair or reasonable share price here)

WiseOwl do many speak here to defend the bird realm: He see himself as knight owl !!

when wiseowl speak he make me (h)owl with laughter

wise owl be know it owl

Indeeed Master 82, hoot have guessed he'd not have been doing a bit of good old fashioned ramping here this arbo..

i'm very confident it will be a long time yet before he throws in the t-owl here, Pat Share !

S/p waking up semi decently this arbo I see...

Here's hoping Owl's well that ends well :-)

Pre concetration scoping seems fair and reasonable path to now take to me.

Generally, I rate Africa Gold at minimum 2p and maximum 5p per share value.. so for this to be 1.65 p as I type is an extremely squared harsh overall company valuation here imho

eg The market is saying that a bunch more money is going to be spent on Bushranger and in the end Bushranger wil be worth zero.. I do not buy that .. and , again, offer a very bad sell on value for bushranger is £10 to £15 m gbp range in my mind.. eg approx 1 p to 1.5 p per share value range .. and with Africa Gold at 2p minimum .. that makes the current share price FAR too low now in my mind.. so I'm happy to just stay patient here.. and/ or top up if this goes under 1.5p..

Good steer and fair enough mesb48..

..as that slide tells me that 80+ per cent of product sales are for coffee, Soy and Sugar, and May thru to Oct are the key months for buying for those, I'll revise my expectations down for q1 so.. - and also now understand that Russia invading Ukraine was a massive 'one off' driver last year - but including allowing some invoicing from last years orders i'll go with I'm hoping for 35k -40 kt range invoiced sales as my view on what q1 being an in line q might look like.. and I'll also note that this is broadly in line with wh12 and Ninjabo now too

PS: Williston Basin non-operated portfolio is something that enthuses me hugely here.. and more so again in 2023 even...and highlights what a savvy player CH is in this space. Without these revenue generators in our stable I'd have cut my position here a bit more recently.. but I still have high hopes for Paradox later in 2023 ...and much beyond too.. so, altogther, I like my BET here plenty.

Some of the 'straight forward' answers, around this moment in time, may not be to many peoples liking......

Indeed, if they were going to be to many peoples liking they very likely would have been given already.

Also, regarding 'straight forward'; there may easily be plenty of key unknowns on zephers managements part re Paradox still, around this time... so they are genuinely not in a position to offer with even medium certainty key latest anticipated timeframes.. not least as there are so many inter linkages, and Paradox revenue might only be as quick as the slowest/last piece of the jigsaw to be put in place.. etc..

Generally, sure this s/p can go much higher, whenever/ in due course .... but it could go plenty lower whenever too.. especially in the very - very - fragile market that AIM has been for a year plus now.

All that said I remain long and strong on my mid size bet here
( but, towards fair disclosure context, it's my second time round here, and I fortunately did well from the rose into early zepher days journey.. and am betting a small portion of previous banked gains here this time round, only )

Good luck to all fellow holders

It makes me sad/annoyed to look in here and indeed even think about this share generally.,.. so my latest view is best I look in rarely and post little here. ( many of you will be pleased to hear )

PS: this deal may not be excellent for lnd.l, but it's ok/decent and as already noted, altogether, off the back of existing cash in the bank and this deal, we have/will have cash in the bank for full on drilling for a year plus forward now; so no need to raise in that time. And that's very good news in my mind.

So, for this to actually go down today, from an already extremely low s/p, is horrible really.. and not worth stewing on, so I won't bother stewing on it...

PS: I'm FAR from sure there will be a new CEO here - and Bill going to Chairman/ Senior Geologist only type thing - actually and I'm guessing the market might be thinking the same. ( a New Senior Inmplementation Program manager, maybe.. but Bill running the show as per now is what I'm guessing.. and the share price has spoken for itself on this set up previously.. and may well continue to too is what I'm further guessing... Sad/annoying as that remains,.. but AIM can often be a mugs game, in fairness.. and this perhaps just one more of the endless eg's of that, alas.. and nobodies fault in the end but my own.. as nobody made me play the game.. and nobody made me pick this specific share to bet punchily on..etc..

All that said.. there is of course always reasonable hope : this time next year Rodney....You know it makes sense !