Member Info for NicetoMichu

"Owl was telling Kanga an interesting anecdote full of long words like Encyclopedia and Rhododendron to which Kanga wasn't listening."

Still time for Kangas' to listen to Owl and buy punchily here

IMHO & DYOR

Given, Harvest is forecasting invoiced sales of 200,000 tonnes in FY 2023.. and Q1 is traditionally a strong sales Q - granted 'invoiced sales' is a different thing to 'sales' as we learned when BmcM decided to be more transparant at beginning of 2023 - and there will likely be some invoicing for sales 'made' last year in this Q also.. I'd be hoping for over 50,000 tonnes invoiced sales in q1 2023.

Generally, I'm only slightly surprised at the current s/p .. I feel B McM clearly used strong 'marketing orientation' in his interviews /presentations last year....which is how AIM works generally, in fairness - and hence why so little trust left on AIM too imho - and is also generally fairly acceptable in early/mid stage business grow out too...and the accounts had some cleaning up to do around previous growing pains too.. so 10p s/p here around now would be fair and reasonable in my mind.. and if he hits this years targets and cashflow/profitability is as it should reasonably be expected to be off the back of that, then this s/p could easily rally on the 15p plus (plus plus even ) thru this year..

IMHO &DYOR

The reason more and more players in AIM are short term orientated SWINGY is that's the best way to survive or even have a chance of winning to whatever extent the good/lucky few might. Sadly many many AIM stocks dilute long term holders to oblivion as a rule and so fewer and fewer long term players will participate/stay participating as a rule.

However, there is a smallish batch of AIM stocks that are consistently profitable and dividend paying and regular market long term players still participate in these, as they - buy and hold - would with FTSE 350 plays they might also have. HMI.l has a good chance of going this way imho and if it does then you might be surprised as the how well this s/p can incrementally do. But proof positive of year or two of progressive nett profitability and same year or two progressive dividends off the back is needed/awaited. So more patience required.

Impressive posting here this morning....

And Poppers and Simonthepieman are singing off the exact same hymn sheet as me.. An easy patient hold play for me this, for a big chunk of my bet here ( I do some range trading alongside for a portion on my bet here too).. Indeed far from selling, my thinking is more along the lines of why am I not adding more around these 2p levels, which feels a low s/p to me here..

Generally, on even a sniff of a takeover/merger noise this will hop to 5 p plus very quickly, I expect.. as it has before... and if coming main season business is as good like the boss is confident it will be this could justify a 4p price off the back of that alone

IMHO & DYOR

plenty of the posters here I dont take seriously Hedgehog.. many of them have a negative slant to offer regularly, one or maybe more only have positive slants to offer...

I absolutely do take you - and a fair few others too, in fairnes - seriously, because you're a very able and well researched chap.. hence why I question you.

(generally, I had high hopes for you being there abouts the/a top poster here, but you're lack of balance is killing those hopes, incrementally, alas)

I do not believe we're splitting hairs on this Hedgehog. I'd be all for it we were, actually.

In Africa, whether Benin is a more upstanding country than plenty or not, I simply do not believe you can say that a deal has been won until a final agreement has been signed - off by the Presidential or Governmental Rep who actually counts - sealed and delivered, Hedgehog.

I've been in at least ten oilers doing business in Africa over the years and my belief in this has become clearer and clearer as I've gone. ( ask Zengas about Save.l in Chad for a recent eg)

And in fairness to AC his wording tells me he is 'wised up' to this reality too :
eg ''for a period of three months to negotiate and finalise'' .. where he could have left out the negotiate and just said to finalise.

''the Ministry of Water and Mines of the Republic of Benin has awarded Zenith Energy an exclusivity (the "Exclusivity") for a period of three months to negotiate and finalise the terms of a Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") for Block 1 containing the Sèmè oilfield, offshore Benin ("Block-1")''

If the negotiation/finalisation of terms is not successful then Zen.l will not win this project Hedgehog ?

So for you to say off the back of this that ''ZEN have already won the Sèmè project in Benin'' is, putting it nicely, potentially incorrect imho.

The way you look for only positives and just disregard any negatives/potential negatives here generally hedgehog is becoming more and more annoying to me. Such a lack of balance in your posting here is simply a poor show imho.

What i take from that Zengas AI piece - which has been posted previously here too - Paul1Deano is that AC submitting a bid to revive Sèmè, Benin is one thing and AC being successful with that bid is an entirely dfferent thing; as Zen.l is up against lots of competition here.

I alos agree that the very decent possibility of zen.l not being sucesful in this bid is already plenty priced in the current very low s/p.

wow, camco days even ***an ! .. me too in it now that you mention.. I had a lucky turnaround on a camco bet that was going badly .. hence I took a punt on redt .. and ditto, thankfully .. and hence playing the game with ies.l too .. i'm hoping i stay lucky, and so far in ies.l I have, fortunately and hairly.. so i'll be in this for a good while yet, I expect.. very tricky share written all over it though.. imho

I'll not look to comment on what profit forecasts for when versus current market cap as i've not researched this..

Invoiced sales versus targets is another key metric in my mind.. and I feel the 'c*ck suredness' BMcM displays in the interview feels like good news generally to me: to have that body language and tone about him at this time leads me to guess that the start of the year invoiced sales and his feel for immediate pipeline - March for eg - invoiced sales is 'in line' or better..

In a pretty recent podcast I have clear recollection CB mentioning - in a lower tone, as a kinda adjunct to that whatever train of thought, granted - he still has the objective of getting to 2mt of copper in Bushranger, in the end.

So still lots/all to play for imho.

Granted, if it happens, it will have taken much longer the CB - and many others, by extension - had originally hoped for .. or expected.

Pretty insightful numbers post Roly. Thanks

Salutary too.. not least the ''Current cash burn rate of £192 K per month = zero cash November 2023'' bit.

We live in hope that they can increase revenue meaningfully at some stage soon.. they've had lots of 'do overs' and additional 'investment' to that end, so here's hoping this time it happens..

Another alternative is to scale back costs meaningfully, if revenues are not picking up decently in first half of this year....
(Staff no's have generally felt large versus the turnover and industry sector here to me, so some redundancies - some up front cost involved in this granted, but not a lot for many staff who have ben on board for a short time- and pay cuts for remaining staff.. and some leaving of own volition in a sector that offers plenty of jobs generally, especially if fcs is not a company employeed can grow with as it grows..)

Also, my guess is they'd get at least one more raise away, for a million plus gbp, if they felt they have to towards year end..or into 2024...

So i'll still go with this won't go under in 2023, I'm confident

And there's always a chance of an outright sale with meaningful proceeds returned to share holders too ( the market cap is is approx 2.5m gbp.. versus for eg they sold a part of the business for nearly double that pretty recently !)

PS: Even if this goes under in the end, shareholders money has very much helped keep a lot of people in decent jobs for many years.. which is something.

(And more generally, also an eg of how capitalism keeps itself from imploding.. a company that has never come remotely close to making a genuine profit - so far - has paid out of maybe 10 to 20m gbp ? in salaries in its existence so far.... those employees paying taxes, consumer spending ..etc..)

buy low.. sell high(er) .. you know it makes sense Rodney !!!

Of the back of this latest interview, I offer that Brian McM continues to look / feel frustrated with the market valuation of his company. I somewhat get that but he also needs to try to force himself to show circumspection and patience imho. This is still a very young business, that by his own admission had a tricky start in sundry ways. He also has previously employed strong marketing orientation in his presentation of the business, that might easily be perceived to include some 'smore and mirrors' imho. But the current and future looks very bright now and if he does deliver to his forecasts generally thru 2023 this s/p will rally well as we go, I believe.

That said, I think this s/p should be 10p odd now, only.. but I also think that if q1 and q2 invoiced sales are in line with what he has forecast then it can get up to 15p ish readily enough. (Indeed this s/p has shown a capacity to rally hard already, as per early last year, but this rally got well ahead of itself imho.. bacause while q1 felt spectacular and with immediate potential for lots more of the same, the rest of the year played out solidly more than spectacularly instead.. and there was meaningful unfavourable to the immediate bottom line differences between 'sales' versus 'invoiced sales' it transpired too.)

Mr ***an in from the early redt days.. and there were small opportunity/ies for in and out at right time(s) with it eg I had some luck with trading redt, fortunately.. but many long term participants got somewhat obliterated via it, sadly.. and many 'long term' - it has not been around long really - participants in the ies.l incarnation are pretty obliteraed right now, sadly ..

PS: In answer to Schroders current average q, including averaging down big time today.. and averaging down with the 100p placing previously.. i'd have a pretty wild guess at 80p ish average now.. which is not good versus 32p now.. but there are plenty who were buying here at 150p plus, alas.. who even if they've averaged down somewhat decently are currently under water very big time here.. The share price chart here speaks here for itself, ies.l s/p performance has been awful towards dire, sadly.. including relatively - for a company of this starting fairly small size - very meaningful dilution via the raises we've had. (Ies.l so far, like AIM in the round, is a brutal 'game' to play)

Plenty of good posting /posters here, and much appreciated.

I get clearly why this raise was done and accept it fully. (hopefully no more riverfort draw downs now .. but I expect they'll keep the arrangemenet available as a just in case .. so while still 'hanging over' a little .. it will be a far less worrying thing now, thankfully)

I also am cleraer and clearer on the extent of investment required - including significant amounts on the journey up to this latest? raise, obviously - to even give ies.l a proper chance of being a winning business in the end. In the round, very - very -significant investment, and with other players/soon to be players in the space investing heavily too, there are nothing near guarantees on ies.l being a winner in the end, in my mind.. but I'm still plenty hopeful it will..altogether equating to me being keen but very cautious in my betting here forward....(i'll not go near the 15k gbp I had in this at one stage not too long ago.. traded down to small size now, that at an overall small profit, fortunately.)

Generally, I like this plenty as a medium term bet ... including the possibility too of other players /potential players looking to take ies.l out soon enough, perhaps.... and so will look to add gently as we go: took a small amonut at 33p this morning - as I previously said I would - and assuming Barclays SB offers me some at 32 p in a corporate action, I'll take those too ... then sit and watch for a while, I expect.. while open to adding small more as/if I see fit.

ps if he tells you that you'll be paid at month end, make sure he also specifies which year with that :-)

you're fortunate 1p - a word - is the lowest possible legal tender howezap :-)

fair enough Andrew, and in the round we're on the same page with this imho....

PS:

''CB's expectation management is shocking and self destructive.''

Agreed.
(Indeed, I'd go as far as splitting out his up front expectation management from his 'in play' expectation management, both shocking and self destructive imho.. with the in play being less forgivable, even)

Did CB's estimated full production gudiance previously at average gold prices for 22/23 not equate to more like approx £450k p/m to xtr Andrew? That instead of £300k p/m is my main point.

(BUT ..Allowing for already very slow build up to 'full production' and also the fact they have to go through processing plenty of non optimal stuff first to get to the optimal 'ard rock stuff, My GUESS is that from April to Dec this year may see an average of somewhat sub £250k p/m to xtr btw.... so say for eg £175k ish gbp in April and up to £300k ish p/m to xtr later in year)

Even at that in 2023 and valuing Bushranger as a v bad case £15m gbp sell on value .. the s/p should still be higher now imho eg 2.5p