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"To summarise: Jam tomorrow "

Well, July is the start of Jam Making season .... !! ;-)

>200p easily by end of year (2023) imo.

For clarification RNS's for 'Annual Results' past 3 years released on :

1st July 2022

30th June 2021

1st July 2020 ( NB Recorded as Final Results)

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZIOC/

atb

We have posted our Annual results on the 1st July several times over the last few years, so Monday it is.

Good w/e all.

Two decent buys just gone through, probably reason for SP being pinned down all day !!

30-Jun-23 15:26:32 208.00 170,000 Buy* 207.40 208.00 £353.60k O

30-Jun-23 15:26:12 208.00 219,377 Buy* 207.40 208.20 £456.30k O

Even though both Brent / WTI and NBP have remained static since US open, still we get taken down several points !!

Part 2 ...

For much of the last year the North Sea oil and gas industry has been fighting its case on two – and sometimes more – fronts.

Tax changes on the sector enacted by the Conservatives have delivered blow after blow to investor confidence, with companies shelving numerous projects as a result.

Then there is the hostility of the Labour Party – seen by many as the government in waiting – to future North Sea exploration and production, though this attitude has been tempered in recent weeks.

“At the moment the skill sets, entrepreneurial capabilities and confidence of UK based North Sea companies are being severely hampered by three waves of tax changes in 12 months,” said Mr Craven Walker.

“This is forecast as having a very significant negative impact on the industry, which is largely based in Scotland and the North East, with potentially negative long-term effects for those areas in particular as the UK loses skills and investment so essential in providing so many jobs in the North. Counter intuitively, as well as hitting Scotland and the North East and ultimately reducing UK Treasury returns, it also has a negative impact on the UK’s claim to be focused on reducing carbon emissions.

“As has repeatedly been said, replacing North Sea production with more carbon intensive overseas imports (elsewhere it is called “greenwashing”) simply increases overall carbon emissions in addition to hitting cash flows which could be used in new energy technologies if the tax system was less punitive. A double if not triple whammy!”

The outgoing chairman of Serica Energy (LON: SQZ) used his final statement to deliver a scathing takedown of the UK’s main two political parties.

As his parting shot Tony Craven Walker slammed the Conservative and Labour parties for the “damaging and totally illogical impact” to the Scottish economy of their respective North Sea policies.

Since Serica’s 2022 AGM there has been a “whirlwind of anti-oil and gas sentiment”, he argued, with “UK industry caught in the cross fire”.

The North Sea veteran said: “The Tory Party introducing more and more complicated and penalising tax changes, the latest of which, announced only three weeks ago, will do little to restore confidence, and the Labour Party by advocating even harsher taxation policies and stating that it will constrain new investment in an industry which has been fundamental to the UK economy, and particularly to the Scottish economy, for as long as I have been working for it – and that is a very long time!

“All of this is having a damaging and totally illogical impact on a business essential to Scotland, to the UK Treasury, to UK security and the economy and fundamental to the changing energy scene. However, I believe that sense and reality will prevail. It has to. It always does.”

“There are ways of doing this but it needs a far better informed, more enlightened and, dare I say it, braver and longer term approach from government and the powers that be if the opportunity and the vital supply chain for offshore projects are not to be snuffed out and critical infrastructure protected. The industry will need some reversal of policy.”

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/515497/outgoing-serica-chairman-blasts-uk-political-parties-in-parting-letter/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter%20AB%20Test%20%5BB%5D%202023-06-30&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter

Sasa,

You are correct, Serica needs to show Mr Market our TW deal was not a stitch-up that's it perceived to be by many on this board including myself. As a self-proclaimed cheerleader of all that is great about Serica this TW deal has blown the wind out of my sails, so I too need Mitch (Mercuria) to show us LTH and Mr Market there's some light at the end of the tunnel and fast. As you rightly mention, "It 'aint rocket science any of this....."

aimo & dyor

Cash holdings of £445 million (no margin calls), as for debt, SQZ paid down ~25% of ACQUIRED Tailwind debt in ~3 months since completion of TW deal, leaving a very healthy NET cash position. TW deal DID NOT require us to take on new debt of our own, more it came as part of the TW package that included their debt.

Currently, CASH on hand to MCap is ~55%.

Debt is something Serica has never had for as long as I can remember and with the rate of pay-down, this could be cleared by end of year if they so wish. Debt is common place for virtually ALL O&G plays, SQZ was the exception to rule until recently due to TW deal.

aimo & dyor

ASK is flying all over the place atm, BID virtually static ... weird !!

Sasa/Chinch,

SQZ are certainly in a state of transition atm for various reasons, one would hope for the benefit of PI's, but this is big bucks business so anything goes.

With more than >50% of Mcap in CASH no reason why we can not complete another deal, that will be, no doubt on better terms than TW as Mercuria now have what they want, for now !

The problem as I see it, SQZ are now in the same mix as all other O&G plays, where as before with BKR deal there was a clear and definable accretive (no cost) guaranteed incremental growth plan, virtually YoY from deal completion until we reached 100% ownership. That safety net has been removed and replaced with us entering the lions den, with Mercuria as the lion tamer, Serica, as it once was, is no more. Fundamental changes have occurred in the last 6 months that have yet to show any kind of benefit to SH's.

Having said all that, I mentioned before how we could replicated BKR style deal but on a bigger scale and should this occur then I'm sure Mr Market will re-rate us accordingly unlike the old BKR deal that needed to prove the concept, this has now been proven.

Recent LTIP announced last month had 500p target for 180 days, is that a red-herring or a real and attainable target, let you decide.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/long-term-incentive-plan-awards-ihx383g8y9wp1v6.html

aimo & dyor

As previously stated, please DO NOT get into dialogue with TerryMC1, a known and self-proclaimed shorter.

Well, given range of 50% to 100% 'normal' BOE historic rate for NS 2P reserves, our CoH and debt, we should be looking at a valuation between 395 - 733p/s.

aimo & dyor

Also 23.5m were WITHHELD for resolution 9, Mr Vermersch appointment. Guess some of the funds who voted against (46.5m) his appointment may consider wanting to exit/reduce now ! I would guess the Hardy's played a big part in the AGAINST, just hope they don't decide to exit/reduce.

Poor day at the office for our SP today. ... :-(

aimo & dyor

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/result-of-agm-pcbporhuqeexffz.html

Few interesting votes afaic.

Both Mitch and Kisok Kate & Bob Lawson had ~3.4m votes each AGAINST re-appointment.

But most interesting by far was resolution 9, to appoint Guillaume Vermersch (CFO of Mercuria) to our board as company director had 46.5m votes AGAINST, or 19.13% of the votes cast. Clearly some big players don't want him involved ..... hummm, no guessing why !!!

aimo & dyor

Lol, see TerryMC1 is in conversation with his own alter-ego.....

Also, presentation mentioned, "The continuing strong performance of the company into 2023 underpins the intention to maintain or increase the dividend in future years.."

So at current SP that is a yield well over 10% pa, whilst no doubt looking to maintain cash on hand position ~£450m for accretive acquisitions one would hope.

aimo & dyor

Could we ....... could we really finish BLUE ?

Looking likely given Saudi's are cutting production by ~1mmbopd from Saturday.

Cash looks strong @ £445m .... so running at circa 55% of MCAP held in cash atm.