Member Info for NelsontheDog

Could be right Southpaw but the news could come any day so there is a fomo element to that strategy.
GLA
NtD

Draft
I am somewhat confused by your statement "VELA has too many shares in issue for this to ever get a multibagger rise in my opinion"

Would you possibly explain to me how the number of shares reduces the likelihood of multi-bagging as I genuinely dont understand. Surely its market cap size that matters in relation to the perceived present value of the share isnt it? If the number of shares were less, my capital would have bought less and I would still own the same % of the company. What am I missing?

AtB
NtD

Talking of media - has there been any yet - I have not seen anything yet. I see this as a positive - my assumption is that SGS / Evans want the momentum of the commercialisation agreement in tandem with the press. That adds to my belief that it wont be long for the deal. Chris Evans alone can get press involved - however its a bigger story with AstraZeneca boss sitting next to you at the press conference.
GLA
NtD

Iceman
I think some of those buys are from real talk given the change in tack. Welcome aboard Real - I am bias but your ramp seems to be of a better quality than your FUD.
Good luck
NtD

DShox,
I think the disappointment is driven by an announcement today that reads like the one they decided not to give us a few months back - no real handholds to help with the climb and the opposite of the polished deal we were hoping for. As many have stated this is clearly intended to defuse market expectation and in my view a time loaded position being used against SGS in the commercial deal.
If thats the case then the deal will now close in a sensible fashion, or, there is a real logjam point that is proving hard to clear. I believe it is the former point because of the Monday RNS - if it was a potential Iceberg to the deal I would not expect the by Friday point but i have less confidence on that theory than some of the others I expound.
What I am sure of is that the trial is derisked and in my mind I have raised my VELA valuation irrespective of the market price now that I have gotten over my initial blockbuster hopes being dashed this morning.
NtD

Dshox
Gosh thank you - you seem to be doing pretty good yourself! I have no more info than anyone else - just joining the dots in my own fashion based on a career in deal making. I seem to have similar taste in shares to Iceman as we cross paths on many BB's. He can attest to the fact that generally, I have little info to offer other than fairly bland buffoonery. However this one is screaming out value - the only confusion for me is why there isnt more drama - I dont like to wait, but I will and I dont think it will be too long at all.
Cheers
NtD

According to my IG data, getting on for circa 2bn shares traded in first 2 hours - wow.
JN has a great reputation in investing - I wonder if he is buying VELA today? Looks very cheap and close to realisation event (he may be thinking).
GLA
NtD

Looking at the 15 minute chart volume - the first 45 minutes saw selling but the last 15 back to green - here we go - expect risies from now.
I would expect us to end the day on the leader board for LSE risers
NtD

Improtant to bear in mind that the delay on Monday will have been to do with the close but not over the line commercial deal, not the trial result. We know they have made progress as we have the CIZ deal all itemised. This will only be part of what has been going on.
IMHO they are very close to agreeing a deal and a member of the negotiation is using the Friday timeline to play hardball - hence results of trial only RNS today. This removes the time squeeze entirely and should now see a satisfatory end to a commercial agreement in a more calm manner.
Whether we rise today, I would expect the commercial agreement to be out early next week now.
GLA
NtD

Hereshopin
There is a Finance treasury person in SGS and I dont believe they will sell anytime prior to the commercial announcement and even then I would expect them to aim to gain the best price. I am not selling this close to a commercial deal and I would expect that for SGS its the same.

Great point Big dave - if CIZ get 25x return after trial - we must be 50x to invest pre trial result - £120m!

GT4 - it should rise as we have a viable product that could gain $billions in global sales of which we have an entitlement to 8% - if $1bn sales, VELA get $80m - our market cap was circa $14m.

I reckon we are near the end of a negotiation for the commercial deal but the team believe the last bits for which they extended this week may take longer than the week so they have issued result to hit their timeline. Commercial deal is very close imho.

Strange CIZ going but not VELA - if CIZ is getting 5m in royalty, it would be subject to VELA's 8% gaining much much more.

whether we rise now or in the future - we will rise. Why? Well the drug and as a result VELA have just had a massive risk removed - the great unknown was the trial result - a lot easier to assess the commercial viability of a tested product. Dawn is sweeping over the horizon and it turns out that we have been on the right road all through the night - well done to all holders!

Ade - £8.88 per share

Sorry posted too soon in error,
Upside: We have enormous resources in the ground and they are much cheaper to mine than many. Lets say $120bn resource and 50% mining cost - $60bn profit (and likely to rise as prices rise. Savvy bod who can negotiate a strong deal.

Downside: Political risk of Russia (and therefore likelihood to give profit to local firms). Lets discount 50% for that. I also ackowledge SA has risks also and is the main alternate source of product.

Result: $30bn of future value. I believe I have been very conservative on this above basis.

Key Question - Why are people assuming such a low sale price? If the BoD are as good as said on here we will be on that "ridiculous" £5 per share basis if not more. I am happy to take the ridicule if wrong, but that NAV report excluded lots and lots of value - as i have previously said - my target - £8.88 per share. If we dont get that, what is our BoD playing at - (that last bit is slightly tongue in cheek).

So, never mind the flipflops and a holiday, have it in your new holiday villa!

Hoping for news this week and good luck to all
NtD

We have enormous resources in the ground and they are much cheaper to mine than many. Lets punt

Thank you Max - some good background for me - so Mopani have the two sites. What I had failed to grasp in the initial announcement was the majority shareholder of Mopani being Glencore - I wonder how involved they have been in the deal to date - this could end up giving Jubilee a lot of brownfield expansion opportunities going forward.

There are a number of posters here with local knowledge and I have in the past been very grateful for the insight you provide. JLP seems to operate best where we have the chance to takeover an existing refinery site and rework for JLP processes. In regards to Mopani, do they have any suitably located refining facilities in areas that would allow good expansion deals? Of the unknowns - the potential for these new deals for me is the most interesting at the moment. Any knowledgeable posters views on this would be very gratefully received my myself.
GLA
NtD

A lot more tweets this afternoon. Think it’s partly that covid plays aren’t the main trend. If we can finish on a spike we should get the attention of a few more TA charters