Member Info for NelsontheDog

Not a breakout as yet but for about the 5th time we have a potential second day of rising price - could this be the longawaited turnaround? Hope so!

Like most I struggle to imagine what it must be like to be Ukrainain. Your country is going to be tossed about like a rag doll as this plays out. In 1994 under the Minsk agreement Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal on the promise that Russia and Nato would leave it be. Then crimea and we all turned a relative blind eye. Now Russia looking to get the 2 eastern states and leave Ukraine as a perpetual no mans land.
Next time you hear a UK politician talking about nuclear disarmament - remember the plight of Ukraine. It isnt our history, wealth, cleverness or good business sense that keeps the UK safe - its submarines hidden somewhere under the sea carrying Polaris. Its good to sometimes remember this and realise as a single member state, paper agreements (Nato etc) dont always work. Speak gently and carry a big stick as a Roosevelt (Teddy?) once said.

For me this is a very reassuring RNS. I still dont think there will be much more reaction to this till a deal of some nature is announced however as we are no longer feeling the immediate heat of Covid, the likely resultant deal will be a more moderated response and that will drive the likely deal size. In other words there is a route to a return of our capital and maybe some profit, but it wont be on the Rodney scale of millionaire making imho. Rather, it will at best be more likely to show good progress.
By the by, any perceived tone from JN would imho only be worthy of note if JN himslef feels these deals are good and is lining up more of them - somehow I feel he wont be and will privately be happy if he can exit this position with his shirt on his back, his reputation safely back in his pocket and some cash in the coffers.

Papaduke
Agree - especially the last comments. The ZPHR strategy of buying unloved assets in the USA as politics moved them away from oil production has been suddenly turned on its head. Its now going to be a sellers market for assets in the USA as the outcome of no sale is production at booming prices. Its just that this has occurred way quicker than anyone expected due to the horrific news.
I feel confident that any takeover will be at a good value as CH is personally vested and also demand could easily lead to bidding wars.
Incredibly cheap - the failure of a consultant body to produce a report does not remove our ownership of significant production assets and significant reserves -the very definition of a buying opportunity for the patient investor.
NtD

Clearing the decks of a pre-existing option to convert a debt. JLP wouldnt be here without the past loan finance and at the time ACAM demanded a good deal as it was v risky. If you really are upset at the dilution at 17% of the share price (rather than just airing a nothing type moan), I feel you need to redirect the upset at yourself for not doing good enough DD to be aware of this likely development.
I also feel that if you are a LTH, this does clear the decks and we are about to announce some new initiatives without fear of further capital raises.
GLA
NtD

Market cap £15m at this price. That is an absolute steal imho. Our share of dynasty alone should more than cover that, with Satoshipay and our other smaller investments thrown in for free.
Tremendous value for those of a patient disposition.
Gla
NtD

Nice that it is actually going to do something. At least that should remove the fear of theft - however my next worry will be that of being diluted out of the share - they must need some capital and my concern is they will heavily dilute us lth as a final severe kick in the balls before we get back to this being a normal share. Hope I am wrong, but given the disdain they have shown for us to date, I am not hopeful.

Hi JL,
I think on balance I prefer the market report with news updates and a little wider context (that will inevitably involve opinnion / bias) also - totally understand if you are stopping for yourself and your sanity, but, if in any way its due to the noise on the board, I am actively posting for the unabridged original version.
Wish you well, whatever the posts,
NtD

Hi Jimmy
I agree to some extent. I was fine with the NFT investment as it is a completely different field, but is this that different to their core activities. I suppose it may be investment in another talented team on the basis you mention of the early stage investments not being scaleable in investment size.
However, coming back to a prior thread - if we have cash sloshing about that we are struggling to invest, why not return some to investors via a dividend.

Hi Dorfan
I don’t think I have seen too much negativity as to problems at JLP on this board - maybe my brain is choosing to dismiss any I read. Chatter on likely PGM prices and frustration at comms but haven’t seen much negativity on the company itself. Like yourself I am long term positive and have an overweight allocation to this share and that is not causing me any sleepless nights.
NtD

When investing I feel it is useful to distinguish between the timelines committed within the operational control of the company, and those that rely on 3rd parties with truer independance (CPR providers and government bodies mainly). This BoD has not put a foot wrong on the areas it controls and maintains my full confidence. A CPR is useful and may affect SP but I would rather my BoD is progressing the real development of the company.
Dont get me wrong I am excited for the CPR and the impact it could trigger, but its lack of arrival is not causing me any lost sleep or stress as yet.
NtD

Must be that the office is being decorated so they arranged to do something else that day - lol.

As ever, very very happy with the BoD's investment strategies. If only they would move to AIM or main market - humour us investors if they dont feel the need. I have tbh though, I can be patient here in the meantime.

The increased scarcity of PGM's due to restricted Russian supply may not impact the price as greatly as foreseen. In the vote yesterday I felt it was a significant blow that it was India aswell as China who abstained the vote. India and China together makle up an awful lot of the demand and if they end up buying from Russia this could negate the scarcity argument. Hope I am wrong as we need Russia to suffer financially.
GLA
NtD

I would guess that MB is posting that change is afoot. In the past, even with an award, payments would not occur and as such that drives an attitude in the India legal proceedings. With the new reality that cases lead to actually financial pain, it will not take long for a more pragmatic approach to the backlog of similar claims. Do you incur a huge payout, or, do you put your best foot forard PR wise and back jobs and promote industry by affirming the licence. I think the latter.
NtD

I little bit more promotional stuff would do very well - not just Leon but maybe either via a PR contract or even a public relations employee. As you say we aren't even keeping up with the miners, let alone promoting our ESG premium, or indeed the premium that should be applied for our ability to expand at faster timeframes than traditional miners. While we are at it our price also doesnt reflect our secured reserves - thinking cobalt mainly but we could easily cause a stir simply by stating an estimate of our reserves and the prospective recoverability.
However we dont do this (and we LTH say its to not cause a rise in the tailing value when we buy) but personally i feel we should.

Just supporting your response JL, you have the same rights as anyone else who visits this board - as such its wrong to say you should re-read your posts - no-one should have to experience them twice - lol! ;)
I do find the animosity towards these posts as odd - there is no offence in the typical post and soo others can choose to read or not, respond or not. Also bear in mind how rosy your interpretation might be at such an ungodly hour...
Hope we have something more to discuss than JL's surmises soon.
AtB
NtD

It promised an integration of acquisitions and an IT roll out backed efficiency that took significantly longer to produce than expected. They also had an interview with Simon Thomson 2-3 years ago and on the back of it he tipped them - they then warned off the plan about 4 weeks later - he gave them a damning review and that did not help sentiment.
Good profitable business but ignored by market and to be fair I have considered selling a number of times as they cant seem to deliver their own declared strategy - however good divi at this price.
NtD

V111JAS
USA is a long way from perfect (not a criticism - as a UK person I really cant throw any stones at present) but in terms of choosing a place to have your oil reserves, I think there arent many better countries for it to be within than the USA at present. In a game of "i can have my invested companies oil reserves anywhere" where would you choose?
NtD

And the $75 to $100 is the impact on revenue - 33.3%.
If the costs are say $50 then the impact to earnings are a change from $25 to $50 - 100% increase. The maths may not be as easy or rounded but the impact to company earnings of the increase in oil is very very significant.
GLA
NtD

Is there an argument that our licence transfers may occur quicker in the light of Ukraine. Any government official may want to take cash where they can see it given the potential instability - this is based on a view that the licence transfers are the item slowing our process down. Thoughts anyone?
NtD