Member Info for nberzins

Normal rule on AIM seems to be rise on anticipation of news and fall on actual news even if better than anticipated.

It seems that there is a take up of shares while the price is in the thirties as I can well believe that when SD is online a price in the 50s is far more likely. Maybe wishful thinking but who knows.

Someone did a fairly thorough calculation a little while back and they came up with a net figure of $1m per month

I think if you look closely at the minus items they are corrections. Many are quite obvious although others appear a bit random. Most look like someone has finger trouble when entering the trades.

The March hares were out today for sure. With the volume it was interesting to see the number of reporting errors that had to be corrected.

There is no reasonable explaination why the market makers opened with low ball quotes. Surely it was not the small TSX trading from the previous session. I could propose many conspiracy theories but they would all probably be wrong. Whatever an interesting day and the market makers have fewer shares which will benefit the price if that trend continues.

Well, shakeypremis that pretty well sums it up!

Don't know but they were actually all in the first 20 minutes so I guess it might depend on how long the trade gets from the broker to market maker to be executed. I know most of it is automated but I don't know enough of the mechanics to be sure..

None the less this price seems to have brought a good amount of buyers out. With luck we will get back to yesterdays price at which point suspect it will be service as normal.

I presume that all the early sells were stop losses being triggered

Not seen this activity for a while, and the market has only been open an hour. Someone obviosly thinks something is about to happen.

What and why?

So did I for my wife's ISA today which adds to a fairly hefty investment. Interestingly it shows as a sell so I wonder how many trades are misreported.

Swindon41 you make some very valid points, especially that there was no way that SD would contribute in 2018 unless the licence was granted well before the time they were still promising.

It is also the case that with a company actually producing tangible results you cannot make wild claims which are so easy to verify unlike others that hype potential of massive fields that are nothing of the sort yet still get crazy valuations.

Frankly I am not sure what will turn it around; SD going online, 2018 Accounts or other significant news. There just seems to be a distinct lack of buying appetite.but if that changes then we know it will only take small volumes to move the price.

Looking it the other way around what is the benefit or rationale of such a small outfit to be listed on two exchanges. Even the likes of Unilever tried a similar reorganization.

I have sympathy with the view expressed about SDX spending all its income on exploration with no sign of shareholder benefit. I would point out that this is a flawed view in a number of respects:

1. I don’t have a problem with an O & G company spending on exploration after all that is the company’s raison d'être as long as it is proving up reserves and increasing production. Nor do I have an issue with the majority being gas – it’s a more stable commodity. SDX are doing this but maybe not as fast as some would wish.

2. When you break down the CapEx for this year a good deal, about $18.5m, is for SD development. Essentially a one-off for pipeline and processing facilities; yes there will be maintenance and depreciation to set against this asset but it should not have to be spent again.

3. Increased revenue and profit are generated by not spending money and/or increasing profitable income. SD is a good example $18.5m will not needing to be spent again and about $12m net profit annually. So as much as $30m to the good in a full year

4. Following on from point 3 the respected Edison research group reinforces this by putting 2020 cash at near $70m https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=23093&LANG= I don’t believe we will see that much as there has been the slippage with SD and I suspect they would spend some on the two newly granted concessions. Also having that much cash lying idle does not make business sense

5. Assuming they are going to generate the type of cash that Edison forecasts then they should employ it sensibly. One option is to declare a dividend and give the patient shareholders some cheer, another would be to increase the tempo of development and maybe seek more acreage. Lastly if they added an equal amount of debt, which they could easily service, it would give them a war chest in excess of $100m for acquisitions.

As to share price recovery who knows

Agreed, but if people are not buying and there is a small steady stream of sellers then the share price only drifts one way. That said I have some buys set at 35p which is bargain basement territory to my mind. I am not buying at the current price as I am fully invested in SDX already.

I’m fairly comfortable that SD will come online by the middle of the year as they received the development licence at the turn of the year and stated they had all the kit in country. So subject to no unforeseen events then it should be delivered in time.

When it does go into production then it is estimated that it will deliver about $1m nett per month to SDX. There is also further capacity available so production can be increased in the future. In the meantime we just wait and watch the share price be driven by the apathy index.

And maybe not as cash won't start flowing onto the balance sheet for some time after. In theory the finalised 2018 accounts should raise some interest but as there are unlikely to be any surprises then I doubt that will move the needle either,

Maybe it needs an alien abduction of the SDX board to garner some interest.

I could also explain the delay in awarding the SD license; not a conspiracy or poor management but simply the licensing authority had a lot else on their plate awarding concessions at the same time.

I found this map interesting showing the players in the area:

https://energyegypt.net/egas-egpc-2018-bid-rounds-results-announced-with-12-blocks-awarded/