Member Info for nberzins

Absolutely incredible! If the processing facility takes 9-12 months to build how on earth was that ever going to contribute in 2018 as promised?
What is this tempory facility that they hope to lease? Is it something mobile? Is there another facility at the end of the pipe? Or just an invention to buy a few months until mid-year to formally announce no production revenue from SD before 2020.
There comes a point beyond where being over-optimistic can be forgiven to being commercially damaging and poor judgement in a CEO.

Are they buys or market makers cross trading or housekeeping? I can't believe that volume would not shift the price if they were normal trades. If it is inter-market maker transactions then they could be looking satisfy some chunky buys.

I am for freedom of speech, complaints, rants and even praise. I am also a substantial holder and i am quite frustrated also. However, it has been well rehersed on this board why the share price languishes namely a lack of apparent progress and missed targets especially on the projects of major interest.
So furry i understand and take no offence whatsoever.

Don't complain just fill your boots at this level - I am.

I guess the gas consumption will vary dramatically between customers depending on who relies on heat in their manufacturing processes. Not being an engineer I cannot judge what would be the best/highest consuming business.
But as long as they continue to sign-up customers then the aggregate volumes will grow especially with decent fixed-term contracts and high margins.

While we all continue to wait for SD to come online and start producing some revenues there is actual progress in Morocco. The Peugeot plant commences full production with about 100,000 annual output this year and doubling in 2020. Clearly, the demand for gas will ramp up from both the Peugeot factory and supply chain giving increased revenues for SDX.

Going down on more buys than sells - go figure. Still, if it goes down to 35p to buy I will be topping up again - seems rude not to!

Looking at the activity today so far you may well be right that no one cares. Maybe PIs are waiting for their new ISA allowance.

Yep, set on gas mark 1 for two years!

All subject to timing. When does SD start contributing? When does Morocco ramp up with the signed contracts? Will they commence H2 drilling campaign on schedule?

I trust things will fall in place but 2019 cash is a real guestimate. I will be interested to see Q1 cash as that will be instructive.

I have to agree with pretty much every element of your post. While things are not perfect, which in reality they never are, then I am sticking for the long term unless or until there is a solid reason for me to divest either to lick my wounds or with a fat profit for my retirement fund.

I did mention so time ago that the rule on AIM is that shares rise on anticipation and fall on news. So no surprise here when the results, which were well signposted came out much as anticipated. It is also the reason that I don't subscribe to chartists.

I have another theory why South Disouq is not either coming online as quickly as some would want or much news of progress. It is possible their cash flow may not be sufficient to plough ahead as fast as possible. Take their cash position at $17 at the end of the year unchanged from the third quarter. Then add $18.5 CapEx for SD plus more for other items.

They currently have wells not producing, no income from SD until Q3 at least, the Peugeot and supply chain not in production as far as I know so no incremental Moroccan revenue. So overall things may be tight to the extent that they would not want to show a first-quarter cash figure very low and SD not ready which would probably spook investors.

Overall I would expect the share price to gradually recover as SD gets closer and hopefully sustain progress when announced; although bear in mind rule 1 about AIM anticipation and news.

I think there is only a reasonable cash position at the end of 2018 due to the SD delay and that CapEx being shunted into 2019. With a projected $18.5 CapEx for SD that would have wiped out all last year's cash!

All that said they are still funding all their work from their own resources, so it may be a bit slower than we would wish it is a safe and solid way to proceed.

Whatever way people acquire shares they have to be available to buy. We believe that there are relatively few free shares so it will need a premium to buy a decent amount. It may be worth the major shareholders doing so as their marginal cost will be acceptable.

So you may be able to pull a stroke but it will inevitably lift the price as it becomes a sellers market. It is also in the public domain where SDX are likely to be in 2 years time which will further reinforce sellers to require a decent price.

For me charts may be an interesting analytical tool but fundamental and 2 year horizon are my investment drivers.

Or even 50k trade - bigger position

Going up on very modest volumes. Could be impending results, SD nearing completion or simply a tight market (predictive text came up with Merecat - who knows a tight merecat could do it on AIM who knows).

Someone earlier was talking earlier that they were interested to see the cash position/cash burn in the end of year results. This is where SD is a game changer for cash flow. $18.5m Capex on SD in six months or $3m a month cash outflow; when completed $1m per month income - a $4m per month difference in cash flow; significant in a company of this size.

That there are two substantial investors is well documented. What would be significant is if either or both push toward the 30% allowed under AIM rules.

My point was different that although some bigger transactions appeared they were not significant in the scheme of things, and certainly did move the dial.

Hi SM
No idea as I don’t have a crystal ball or inside information. Your guess is as good as mine, whether individuals or one of the funds increasing their positions. Trades like this do stick out but only due to the generally thin trading.

To be honest if some entity was looking to build a significant holding then you would be looking at millions - 5% is going cost £4m and that would be noticeable.

I think someone believes something is about to happen as they have put their hand down the back of the sofa and found a spare £110k.

Don't like charts. Sure they show trends and the like but they are just as much use as using P/E ratios on AIM. You only have to calculate current and forward looking P/E ratios for SDX to see how much influence these have on prices. You get better valuations on e&p companies not making a bean where the price is driven by hype.