Member Info for MrSpeculator

Thanks PIface,

It sounds like you have a very nice average holding there.

I seem to find golden shares but tend to give them up a bit too early with the exception of previous investments involved in investments. So let's hope this one comes off for everyone.

Timing can be hard to judge so I prefer this type of scenario as there is a clear end goal for everyone in respect of takeover offers / asset sale that the company is working towards. And with mining companies there is always possibilities around resource upgrades so good potential upside.

Gl all

Hello all,

While the MMs have kept this pegged back to the 17p to 20p range for the last few days, playing with the SP a bit but not too much for fear of all the buys that keep flocking in, it is good to see a strong finish to the week around 20p.

My prediction made earlier in the week of 25p today did not come off. However we are in a good position next week to hopefully build on a really strong week and solid finish.

The buying at these levels should give everyone strong confidence who bought off the back of recent rises that many want a position in this company ahead of resource updates and likely takeover offers.

Furthermore, this rise will not have gone unnoticed as we have not only done huge rises but we have held and further pushed behind them. It is only for the MMs holding this stock back or a background seller trying to boost their portfolio outlook that we are not already sitting at the bottom end of a possible offer (bottom end in my view 30-35p). The likelihood with multiple interested parties is that we will get a best and final offer once the opening offer comes in. That opening offer will really set the scene to whether we will all make modest to good profits or multibag profits from here.

Let's all remember that we are all invested in the same company here and want this one to go well, so lets keep focused on sharing information between us and ensuring no misleading information gets posted to sway people out of their holdings.

Have a good weekend.

Gl all

Wildfire,

Excellent link and information there on equity and test pricing. Thank you.

Totally agree Merlotte,

Similar here from 67p up to over £2.

But we are near to the product delivery stage now so hopefully those who have been so patient get their return.

Gl all

The test price is very important as it needs to have a global reach including the less developed countries.

From the outset, Alistair made it clear the test needs to be affordable for the African countries too.

Now they have also said that they can have a range of prices. So it may be an individual price for end customers and then large bulk discounts for government purchases with some kind of further discount for the poorer countries?

Not sure how it will work but price will be important for a global reach.

Gl all

News must be imminent I guess?

3 things I will be looking for...

-Testing accuracy
-Test price
-Production targets over the next few months

Testing accuracy - anything with a 9 before it will be good. Ideally in the 95-98% accuracy anything higher is gravy
Testing price - needs to be affordable as people will be performing and reperforming tests each week or two weeks
Testing production - need to be targeting producing 10s of millions of tests per month to show we are serious about meeting global demand.

The risk is no market update within the next two weeks. If we have not received a meaningful update on some of the above, then barring a collaboration with Astra Zeneca or Glaxo, some investors including myself will start to twitch. But in the meantime it is looking good!

Top up time!

Gl all

Auberry if you are prepared to take anyones posts at face value then more fool you.

I am simply pointing out that in most (not necessarily all) cases these types of posting have a motive.

People can post whatever they like on these boards, the SP will do the talking for itself in the long run. But the board has the right to balance each post out.

Not that your post warranted a reply, pardon the pun! lol

ok fair play Bigmj and as I said originally congratulations!

Well done on the profits Big Mj. The point is that anyone can come onto a board and pluck figures out of the thin air for any motive. So any figures banded about need to be taken with a pinch of salt to be honest.

Furthermore, as a warrant holder you do not enjoy voting rights or dividends as far as I believe?
So your motive to sell and take profit is different to many on this board. That being, if part of the company or all of the company is sold then we still benefit as we can benefit from a "special dividend" if only Monchetundra is sold as well as a takeover of the full company. Whereas for yourself, you would not receive any dividend - special or otherwise - is that right?

So obviously in your case you have more incentive to de-risk that us. As we have 2 ways to make profit. Whereas you only have one.

Gl all

Anything has a risk.

My experience with the Russia mining investments has been they are savvy and get the best price. Sibir Energy was not run as well as this company. And the SP had bounced all over the place from 40p to £1.60 in a few weeks before I invested. The company still got sold for £5.....why......because of it's resource base.

You can haggle over whether something is going to be 60p or 65p but you can't haggle on a company's underlying resource base.

Further the Russian government have backed this company so the signs are good.

That we finally hit 25p....

I blinking hope so as I predicted 25p by the end of today haha:)

On a serious point though, this SP is definitely being held back. The SP has been constrained to a 17-20p range for the whole week. If we break through 20p I do not see much resistance till we get to 35p as we are then approaching the bottom end of a possible offer. With offers without flanks news expecting to be 35p-65p.

Not sure why the SP is held back so much. Either MMs are unsure what the opening offers will be. Or there is a background seller taking a lot of profits to improve their portfolio performance outlook.

Nothing has changed here so if you bought in based on the rises, it is a no brainer to hold for the 35p-65p likely offer.

-Board own over 20% of the company which has been going for over 20 years so this will not be sold for anything other than a sensible price.
- Monchetundra resource base is several $billion on "conservative" estimates. This will only increase with flanks and further resource updates.
- The Board members are all focused to execute a takeover. Lots of Merger and Acquisition experience. And many are taking share options over salaries.
- The banks involved only get involved in big takeovers, so minimum company price tag will be £1bn if you look at the recent takeovers which were $1bn and $2bn in the industry.
- The Nomads are good calibre too.

Let's hope we finally get into the 20s pence. I looked at my computer screen and saw 27p 20 minutes ago and then realised I was still asleep LOL.

Gl all

Once people do the calculations and realise the floor for any take over offer is around 30-35p

With higher end bids at 45p-65p...we will hopefully see further strong buying

GL all

Try adding a few $billion onto your numbers...and you might get somewhere close including flanks approval.

We are talking billions not millions including flanks approval....the biggest banks would not be on a "success fee only" for pennies!

Lets all breathe in and out together lol

Joking aside it be good to see this break the 20p

Which was my forecast last weekend. Hold tight!

I was thinking something similar tbh.

Any opening offer around 40p-50p would get things going as their are several parties interested in our resource base.
The likelihood is that a number of sensible offers come forward and then the remaining highest bidders may be asked for their best and final offer.

Gl all

Hello all,

I want to repost this as it got good feedback and was posted when some were sleeping. This is going to become more and more relevant as we approach offer news. As those wanting "in" will try to play down the possibility of the 'high end' of the takeover offer price. As well as huge delayed buys coming through to pursuade people to sell ahead of when they should....

This is one where those who bought in based on recent rises should really look to ride this out towards the takeover price news or asset offer news. Hopefully there will be news on the final part of the flanks approval before then which will get the price up towards a fair value.

I have read a lot of dribble about the fact an offer will rarely go this much pence over the current SP or that pence. It was written so convincingly I was almost convinced myself. But that is bullocks. Think for yourselves on previous takeovers you have been involved in. One of my first investments was bought around 5p and the eventual offer price was 32p that was a China / Russia / Anglo miner. Then with Sibir Energy that got suspended at £1.70 and during the suspension 2 companies came forward to take it over. First offer at £4 and the competing final offer at £5. So the current SP may be a guide but it will not limit the offer price because the key is the resource base of the company. For the Monchetundra resource they are talking several $billion and that is based on "conservative" estimates as they tend to undervalue rather than overvalue resources for fear of a bad reaction from the market where they over estimate things.

Each time I am wondering how this is going to go, I look at the board buys and holdings in the company and I just sit back and think freaking hell we could be onto something huge here.

If the takeover for the whole company goes ahead which no one knows, then for me this investment is a no brainer because the offer price is not going to be less that 25-30p. When brokers have already said the company value with full flanks approval is much higher. If the takeover goes ahead from these levels at worst you are looking at modest profit and at best you are looking at multiple profits. Of course there is risk involved. We all know that. But there is strong buying going on for this share. The buys have been heavily understated as many significant buys went through as sells as they took place below the current buy and sell range. And some huge delayed buys came through later in the days too. So the picture you are seeing in real time is where the MMs are only showing you part of the jigsaw puzzle. Then they reveal the other pieces hours later....

Don't be fooled. I see motley fool article is already trying to tell people to top slice right now...before offers and flanks news....I mean wtf? Why would you do that before the good stuff comes out when you have heavy institutional buying at 17p-20p?

Go big or go home lol.

Let's hope this one comes off!

Gl a

*de-ramping lol.

Hello all,

This is one where those who bought in based on recent rises should really look to ride this out towards the takeover price news or asset offer news. Hopefully there will be news on the final part of the flanks approval before then which will get the price up towards a fair value.

I have read a lot of dribble about the fact an offer will rarely go this much pence over the current SP or that pence. It was written so convincingly I was almost convinced myself. But that is bullocks. Think for yourselves on previous takeovers you have been involved in. One of my first investments was bought around 5p and the eventual offer price was 32p that was a China / Russia / Anglo miner. Then with Sibir Energy that got suspended at £1.70 and during the suspension 2 companies came forward to take it over. First offer at £4 and the competing final offer at £5. So the current SP may be a guide but it will not limit the offer price because the key is the resource base of the company. For the Monchetundra resource they are talking several $billion and that is based on "conservative" estimates as they tend to undervalue rather than overvalue resources for fear of a bad reaction from the market where they over estimate things.

Each time I am wondering how this is going to go, I look at the board buys and holdings in the company and I just sit back and think freaking hell we could be onto something huge here.

If the takeover for the whole company goes ahead which no one knows, then for me this investment is a no brainer because the offer price is not going to be less that 25-30p. When brokers have already said the company value with full flanks approval is much higher. If the takeover goes ahead from these levels at worst you are looking at modest profit and at best you are looking at multiple profits. Of course there is risk involved. We all know that. But there is strong buying going on for this share. The buys have been heavily understated as many significant buys went through as sells as they took place below the current buy and sell range. And some huge delayed buys came through later in the days too. So the picture you are setting in real time is where the MMs are only showing you part of the jigsaw puzzle. Then they reveal the other pieces hours later....

Don't be fooled. I see motley fool article is already trying to tell people to top slice right now...before offers and flanks news....I mean wtf? Why would you do that before the good stuff comes out when you have heavy institutional buying at 17p-20p?

Go big or go home lol.

Let's hope this one comes off!

Gl all

Including but not limited to the following:

West Kytlim ‘Tipil’ approval
Monchetundra ‘Flanks’ approval
TR1 notifications
Bidders announced
Offers

Further institutional buying forecast to get us to 20-28p? before offers might start coming in at 35p-65p?

Gl all