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For the Abbot rapid test, are we saying it still needs clinical intervention ahead of getting the results back even though results take 15 mins?
If that is the case, then we are still in prime position with our Antigen test.
Thoughts? And what timelines from having the Avacta test to market?
Excellent post Alex,
Yes the significant resource update will hopefully be the trigger for the next share price update.
It also now paves the way for offers to come forward in the next 1-2 months. My forecast was a final offer by November.
I could not see an offer coming before the Monchetundra Flanks approval because that approval has such a huge impact on any offer price. A conditional offer before flanks approval was never likely for that reason.
I would agree that we are due a significant resource upgrade update 'shortly'. The most recent RNSs have been very matter of fact, which would indicate bigger news is on the way.
It be great if we get an offer before that. I expect the board only need communicate offers they are planning to recommend to the shareholders.
Well done all who kept the faith.
Avacta are finally starting to provide a constant stream of promising news which positions them in a good place to deliver on a huge scale re the rapid Antigen testing.
Not sure where the recent rises have come, maybe the sentiment is finally changing and the market are finally back on board that Avacta are looking like they will deliver what they promise.
Any strong news off this levels could finally bring a price inflection point.
Well there are many options.
As well as selling the whole company if an offer at the right price comes in, they could just sell Monchetundra and issue a special dividend, and then mine WK themselves.
The placing is definitely a good sign. And puts the 'ball firmly back in their court (side)' in respect of the bidders
"The Flanks application advanced through ALL federal bodies including FSB and Ministry of Defence and is awaiting license issuance".
-- Extensive prior drilling campaigns with c.48,000m drilled at NKT, a part of the Flanks application.
The Monchetundra Project is Eurasia's flagship world class PGM project and comprises two open pittable deposits near the town of Monchegorsk on the Kola Peninsula, Northwest Russia. A production permit was received in November 2018. A Detailed Project Design Report was developed by Central Kola Expedition (Eurasia's contractor that works with Norilsk Nickel, SeverGroup, Fosagro, Rusal and other mining majors on the Kola Peninsula) and approved by the Ministry of Natural Resource's regional branch in October 2019, while an engineering, procurement, construction and finance ("EPCF") agreement is in place with Sinosteel for the turn key launch of production and providing for full financing of Monchetundra (as per the Company's announcement of 4 December 2019).
In addition to developing the currently approved open pittable resources, the Company has utilised its exclusive right to apply for further licenses adjacent to its mining rights. Russian Federal law states that a licence application is uncontested in an area within 5km radius of the approved resource. Monchetundra contains two identified ore bodies (West Nittis and Loipishnune) separated by 2km. Both ore bodies are known to be open on strike and beyond the current mining concession. Furthermore, the immediate vicinity of the project is known to contain type examples of the majority of the layered intrusion- and contact-hosted PGM deposit types recognised globally. An application for a license surrounding Monchetundra referred to as the Flanks was optimised based on data supplied by the State Cadastre of Mines and the Company's in-house proprietary data set, and submitted in September 2019. The application has been approved by all federal bodies including FSB and Ministry of Defence and awaits license issuance.
A further area to the north and east of West Nittis known as NKT is a standout part of the Flanks. Between 1996 and 2001 an extensive drilling programme was carried out creating a valuable catalogue of drilling data now available to Eurasia. Our predecessors also developed targets in the NKT area, and areas to the east of the Loipishnune deposit, and these work programmes in 2015-2017 resulted in pre-feasibility studies lodged with the State Cadastre of Mines in Russia.
Christian Schaffalitzky, Executive Chairman commented: "The Directors are delighted at the advances made at both of our world class projects in 2020 and at the progress with receiving our predecessors' data, including an extensive 48,405m drilling campaign completed at NKT, a part of the Flanks area. We are also encouraged that institutional investors are investing at the market price....
To do a placing at 22.5p is a great move.
Normally placings are at a large discount but to place at the market price is a master stroke.
When do you hear of placings which are not heavily discounted? It is unheard of.
This confirms there is strong support and backing by the institutions at these SP levels.
As others have said a big thanks to Alex and his research.
It was an outstanding find. Lets hope we can make some further stonking finds on the precious metals front!
Lets vote this thread up in appreciation to Alex!
I am similar to you on just checking the SP now and again. The reality is that most of us are probably invested a bit higher than our normal levels lol! So each move in SP can significantly shift the portfolio value.
Never been the greatest with patience and nerves apart from takeover investments. With the end goal being pretty clear for takeovers, it is one where it is best to check now and again. Unless you have deeper pockets to top up on dips of course.
As a holder, I have been one of Avacta's biggest critics lately but only because I wanted them to do well.
With the therapy partner, the manufacturer sign up and the clinical trial collaboration, Avacta is having a fantastic few weeks with delivering on progress.
I am shocked the SP is still at the levels it is. But I am not complaining as it represents very good value to top up from these levels so I will look to increase my holding from a modest position.
These announcements recently can only help de-risk the rapid Antigen testing solution.
Very exciting times ahead and I think we will see a significant price correction over the next month or two.
Well done to everyone who has been patient here.
The above is just my opinion.
Obviously we all know the SP has been held back. Just interested to know why it is finally been let go.
No more background seller or news on the way for Flanks or an offer nearing?
Well done to all those who continue to hold firm.
We may still have a wait to go but everyone is clear on the end goal here.
Hopefully we will start to rise steadily towards the bottom end of the offer price or with flanks valuation as we near news.
Nothing has changed here.
I did fear that other tests would beat us to the market in my post weeks ago.
If we get our test to market it will be the best rapid Antigen test on the following basis:
- ease of use, saliva based so better for care homes to administer too
- result in 15 mins
we do not know the accuracy
I said it before and I will say it again, Avacta are taking way too long on this.
Each day that goes by is another day that they are not selling tests!
A full vaccine if successful will have wide coverage by the end of 2021.
Listening to US reports I do not think accuracy will be massively important provided it is over 90%......
It makes no sense to get the most perfect test as people will need to regularly get re-tested anyway.
So I think buyers would buy a rapid 15 min test as long as it is at least 90% accurate. Previously thought it should be 95%-98%.
The company need to stop wasting time finessing the test and get it to market asap. Once other rapid tests are out there it is much harder to get people to shift from the test they have been using so we need to act fast. We had long enough at this one now. I have been invested since March / April time.
I am still invested but more modest amounts because I am weary why they take so long to confirm how accurate the test is.
In saying that, this company have huge potential and at 120p levels it represents very good value. So top up opportunities for the brave are there.
We need to deliver on the rapid Antigen testing. Enough words. We need to see actions and deliver. They raised £40M and of which £10 was for rapid Antigen testing. So there are zero excuses.
Deliver Avacta or miss the boat!
It is also in everyones interest who is invested here to get flanks and upgrade news before an offer. That way if we ever do go it alone and the SP dips on news at least it would dip from a higher vantage.
So flank news / resource updates would do re-risk any investment from these 20p levels irrespective of subsequent offers
All the signs are that the company want to do a deal to sell the company but at "the right price"
-Board own over 20% of the company
- The banks and nomads have experience of being involved in big deals
- Lots of resource in the ground
* There is one huge variable here which would have a material impact on the share price and any offer coming forward
If we do not get flanks approval then there would not be any offer HOWEVER we are highly likely to get flanks approval because we have the government backing and are just awaiting local approval now.
That brings us onto the point of timings. I could be wrong but I feel flanks approval / resource upgrades come before any offers.
The reason is because with flanks approval takes this company valuation significantly higher. Will we move to 45-65p range with flanks approval? Not sure but we should get a price correction.
I think flanks news in the next 1-2 months
I think offers 2-4 months
This could all change if we get flanks approval a lot earlier.
Flanks approval SP 45-65p
Lots of variables - metal prices, Russian currency stability, political relationships etc etc
If someone said that with an offer you holdings could increase 3-6 times then most people would be more than happy. You cannot find many investments that do that where they have been de-risked by the cash position of the company and the board holdings. Final offers by November but it would be great if it was Aug / Sept.