Member Info for MrSpeculator

Hello Nitrokev,

When you say the Flanks news hitting, you are referring to the granting of the formal licence?

I am reading that RNS right?

That all 3 bodies have now approved the Monchetundra Flanks application?

Monchetundra update

"The Flanks application advanced through ALL federal bodies including FSB and Ministry of Defence and is awaiting license issuance".

-- Extensive prior drilling campaigns with c.48,000m drilled at NKT, a part of the Flanks application.

The Monchetundra Project is Eurasia's flagship world class PGM project and comprises two open pittable deposits near the town of Monchegorsk on the Kola Peninsula, Northwest Russia. A production permit was received in November 2018. A Detailed Project Design Report was developed by Central Kola Expedition (Eurasia's contractor that works with Norilsk Nickel, SeverGroup, Fosagro, Rusal and other mining majors on the Kola Peninsula) and approved by the Ministry of Natural Resource's regional branch in October 2019, while an engineering, procurement, construction and finance ("EPCF") agreement is in place with Sinosteel for the turn key launch of production and providing for full financing of Monchetundra (as per the Company's announcement of 4 December 2019).

In addition to developing the currently approved open pittable resources, the Company has utilised its exclusive right to apply for further licenses adjacent to its mining rights. Russian Federal law states that a licence application is uncontested in an area within 5km radius of the approved resource. Monchetundra contains two identified ore bodies (West Nittis and Loipishnune) separated by 2km. Both ore bodies are known to be open on strike and beyond the current mining concession. Furthermore, the immediate vicinity of the project is known to contain type examples of the majority of the layered intrusion- and contact-hosted PGM deposit types recognised globally. An application for a license surrounding Monchetundra referred to as the Flanks was optimised based on data supplied by the State Cadastre of Mines and the Company's in-house proprietary data set, and submitted in September 2019. The application has been approved by all federal bodies including FSB and Ministry of Defence and awaits license issuance.

A further area to the north and east of West Nittis known as NKT is a standout part of the Flanks. Between 1996 and 2001 an extensive drilling programme was carried out creating a valuable catalogue of drilling data now available to Eurasia. Our predecessors also developed targets in the NKT area, and areas to the east of the Loipishnune deposit, and these work programmes in 2015-2017 resulted in pre-feasibility studies lodged with the State Cadastre of Mines in Russia.

Christian Schaffalitzky, Executive Chairman commented: "The Directors are delighted at the advances made at both of our world class projects in 2020 and at the progress with receiving our predecessors' data, including an extensive 48,405m drilling campaign completed at NKT, a part of the Flanks area. We are also encouraged that institutional investors are investing at the market price....

Looks good

Gl all

To do a placing at 22.5p is a great move.

Normally placings are at a large discount but to place at the market price is a master stroke.

When do you hear of placings which are not heavily discounted? It is unheard of.

This confirms there is strong support and backing by the institutions at these SP levels.

Gl all

A big thanks*

As others have said a big thanks to Alex and his research.

It was an outstanding find. Lets hope we can make some further stonking finds on the precious metals front!

Lets vote this thread up in appreciation to Alex!

Investingqueen,

I am similar to you on just checking the SP now and again. The reality is that most of us are probably invested a bit higher than our normal levels lol! So each move in SP can significantly shift the portfolio value.

Never been the greatest with patience and nerves apart from takeover investments. With the end goal being pretty clear for takeovers, it is one where it is best to check now and again. Unless you have deeper pockets to top up on dips of course.

Gl all

As a holder, I have been one of Avacta's biggest critics lately but only because I wanted them to do well.

With the therapy partner, the manufacturer sign up and the clinical trial collaboration, Avacta is having a fantastic few weeks with delivering on progress.

I am shocked the SP is still at the levels it is. But I am not complaining as it represents very good value to top up from these levels so I will look to increase my holding from a modest position.

These announcements recently can only help de-risk the rapid Antigen testing solution.

Very exciting times ahead and I think we will see a significant price correction over the next month or two.

Well done to everyone who has been patient here.

The above is just my opinion.

Gl all

Hello all,

Obviously we all know the SP has been held back. Just interested to know why it is finally been let go.

No more background seller or news on the way for Flanks or an offer nearing?

Well done to all those who continue to hold firm.

We may still have a wait to go but everyone is clear on the end goal here.

Hopefully we will start to rise steadily towards the bottom end of the offer price or with flanks valuation as we near news.

Gl all

Nothing has changed here.

I did fear that other tests would beat us to the market in my post weeks ago.

If we get our test to market it will be the best rapid Antigen test on the following basis:

- ease of use, saliva based so better for care homes to administer too
- affordable
- result in 15 mins

we do not know the accuracy

I said it before and I will say it again, Avacta are taking way too long on this.
Each day that goes by is another day that they are not selling tests!

A full vaccine if successful will have wide coverage by the end of 2021.

Listening to US reports I do not think accuracy will be massively important provided it is over 90%......
It makes no sense to get the most perfect test as people will need to regularly get re-tested anyway.

So I think buyers would buy a rapid 15 min test as long as it is at least 90% accurate. Previously thought it should be 95%-98%.

The company need to stop wasting time finessing the test and get it to market asap. Once other rapid tests are out there it is much harder to get people to shift from the test they have been using so we need to act fast. We had long enough at this one now. I have been invested since March / April time.

I am still invested but more modest amounts because I am weary why they take so long to confirm how accurate the test is.

In saying that, this company have huge potential and at 120p levels it represents very good value. So top up opportunities for the brave are there.

We need to deliver on the rapid Antigen testing. Enough words. We need to see actions and deliver. They raised £40M and of which £10 was for rapid Antigen testing. So there are zero excuses.

Deliver Avacta or miss the boat!

Gl all

It is also in everyones interest who is invested here to get flanks and upgrade news before an offer. That way if we ever do go it alone and the SP dips on news at least it would dip from a higher vantage.

So flank news / resource updates would do re-risk any investment from these 20p levels irrespective of subsequent offers

Gl all

All the signs are that the company want to do a deal to sell the company but at "the right price"
-Board own over 20% of the company
- The banks and nomads have experience of being involved in big deals
- Lots of resource in the ground

* There is one huge variable here which would have a material impact on the share price and any offer coming forward

If we do not get flanks approval then there would not be any offer HOWEVER we are highly likely to get flanks approval because we have the government backing and are just awaiting local approval now.

That brings us onto the point of timings. I could be wrong but I feel flanks approval / resource upgrades come before any offers.

The reason is because with flanks approval takes this company valuation significantly higher. Will we move to 45-65p range with flanks approval? Not sure but we should get a price correction.

I think flanks news in the next 1-2 months
I think offers 2-4 months

This could all change if we get flanks approval a lot earlier.

Flanks approval SP 45-65p

Offers 85p-£1.25

Lots of variables - metal prices, Russian currency stability, political relationships etc etc

If someone said that with an offer you holdings could increase 3-6 times then most people would be more than happy. You cannot find many investments that do that where they have been de-risked by the cash position of the company and the board holdings. Final offers by November but it would be great if it was Aug / Sept.

Gl all

GMF78's article on Potential bidders....interesting read

https://www.powerof78.com/2020/07/19/eua-potential-bidders/

"19 JULY 2020 BY GMF78
EUA – Potential Bidders
Whilst many assume Norilsk Nickel (NN) are the overwhelming favourites to purchase Eurasia Mining, other valid options are open and in play.

NN are mentioned in recent EUA RNS, proximity to Monechtundra being an obvious advantage for them. They have all the processing facilities needed just a few km away from the licenced area.

Other firms in the vicinity include Polymetal and Nordgold, they understand the jurisdiction so have to be considered on this basis.

Anglo American have to be considered a strong possibility to make a bid, given the past relationship with Eurasia Mining. Previously they’ve ruled out acquisitions outside South Africa but the recent purchase of Sirius demonstrated a change in approach.

Other global firms such as Glencore who could easily afford a multi-billion offer can be thrown into the mix until such a time as final bidders are revealed.

Chinese influence cannot be ignored on any global asset sale, with the engagement letter with CITIC Merchant an example. Perhaps a state bid via SinoSteel or similar firm.

Many other PGM mining operations exist and would see Monchetundra (MT) and/or West Kytlim (WK) as attractive options to consider purchasing. We should consider South Africa as beset with fundamental issues of power stability, higher than average AISC due to deep underground mining and Covid19 an issue at present with this type of operation. The ratio of Platinum:Palladium at several SA operations is closer to 1, so they would be mining a lot of Platinum to extract a similar quantity of Palladium compared with MT, devaluing one commodity chasing gains on another.

This brings Sibanye Stillwater, Implats, Northam and Lesego to the table of possible bidders. The latter two probably more suited to buying WK as question marks over their ability to afford both MT and WK.

Open Pit mining with AISC around $325/oz makes MT one of the most profitable locations to build a PGM empire. This brings to the table our friends in North America, such as Barrick and Kinross if they wished to consider diversification.

So they would be my top 12 bidders for Eurasia Mining. I don’t expect all 12 to throw in an offer, but it does suggest a potential bidding war until the expert guidance of UBS, ensuring a great outcome for shareholders new and old.

Share price is 19.7p at time of writing, the author holds a fairly large position in the company and has added since suspension ended on 9th July."

Gl all

Are we thinking the offers will come from....other players in the Palladium sphere, or could there be possible interest from a Rio Tinto or BHP Billiton? I listen back to one of the Vox interviews where the now nomad for Eurasia was on the show. As well as saying there could be foreign interest including potentially from the very biggest players, I think it was thought the likeliest final offer would be accepted by a Russian bidder. Anyone else have any alternative thoughts or agree with any of the above?

If one of the biggest players takes an interest then that really would make things interesting and the question on who had deep pockets to make a 3bn plus offer then becomes less of a question. I think X shares in Eur for X shares in bidding company is not out of the question too.

If flanks news comes in ahead of an offer, then I am presuming certain bidders will get priced out with only the bigger bidders left unless funding is sought by the bidder to make the bid?

Hello Ragsrob,

Thanks for raising this point. I thought about raising it a while back but didn't want it to be misinterpreted.

When I invested in Sibir, it got suspended shortly after ahead of a takeover approach. One offer came in on the Wednesday at £4 (SP was £1.70 at time of suspension), prospectuses for the offer were planned to go out on Thursday. The first offer came from BP or shell I cannot remember. Then they were kindly asked to withdraw their offer from a competitor. And an offer for £5 came in from Gazprom which got accepts.

I think we could see initial interest from an outside company initially but the likelihood is a best and final higher offer comes in from a Russian offeror from what I could gather potentially. There are two settings I can see this SP getting suspended. If the SP tries to get severely manipulated. Right now the MMs have attempted to bounce this a little bit but not too much and have also held this SP back maybe unsure what the opening offer will be. This SP should really be at 30p minimum by now. So if the SP gets manipulated downwards too much or there is a risk, I could see them suspended the stock then.

Equally as per Sibir example above if there are going to be offers and counter offers expected in a short space of time, it may be suspended in that situation too. But that is pure speculation not based on anything concrete, I am going off what I saw at Sibir. Not sure under what rule that would take place.

Gl all

Order book on level 2 is now 3:1 in favour of buys to sells

So hopefully D200 is correct and we get another 400% rise in a day!

wolves have you got the podcast link?

Hello d200

I saw the SNG and Mida rises but I missed the MBO rises.

What was behind MBO suddenly rising like that as there was not even news yesterday for MBO right?

The food packaging could be huge yes.

The amount of time I spend after each shop cleaning all the packaging down lol.

I forgot what it was like to go shopping and just unpack it straight away!

I hope you are right d200

Seems to be slowly ticking up.

The numbers look staggering in the RNS. Maybe people are digesting them?