Member Info for MontyMcgree

Hydrogen - "Monty think about what you are saying Pal ." this is why youre polarising, what did saying this add to your post other than to be rude?

"where else are they going to park that amount of money" places with higher risk therefor higher reward (if they believed iconditions were inflationary) and they are ones that create currency so they should know

Jerry - that chart is for the past few years up the current day? I dont understand, how can you even attempt to predict the future if you arent interested in the past and present

Jerry, please see TLT (20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF) vs gold

https://imgur.com/EYohxcz.jpg

The big thing is bond yields agree with them

If the people who actually know about money (not governments, not central banks) private banks are happy with low yields then they dont expect monetary inflation and they dont expect current conditions to last

+ Not only are yields low but banks are increasingly ramping up their positions in US treasuries - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TNMACBW027SBOG

Why are private banks happy to park 1.83 trillion in safe low yielding asset if they expect inflation? doesnt make sense

I dont think im smarter than private banks and theyre showing their hand

A little report done by the BIS ( Bank for International Settlement)

https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull48.pdf

Key takeaways
• Bottlenecks in the supply of commodities, intermediate goods and freight transport have given rise to
volatile prices and delivery delays.
• Bottlenecks started out as pandemic-related supply disruptions amid strong demand from the global
economic recovery. But they have been aggravated by the attempts of supply chain participants to build
buffers in already lean production networks – so-called bullwhip effects.
• Bottlenecks have been particularly severe in upstream industries – ie those that supply inputs used in
many other products. These constraints have led to large international spillovers through global value
chains.
• The direct inflationary effect of bottlenecks will likely be limited after relative prices have adjusted.
However, sustained inflationary pressures could emerge if bottlenecks persist long enough to trigger an
upward shift in wage growth and inflation expectations."

degsie, have you ever read about Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos? very interesting

The board included:

Henry Kissinger (former United States Secretary of State);
Jim Mattis (retired Marine Corps four-star general);
George Shultz (former United States Secretary of State);
Richard Kovacevich (former CEO of Wells Fargo);
William Perry (former United States Secretary of Defense)
William Foege (former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

+ some others that came and went like notable ex Apple board members; They also had an equally impressive list of wealthy investors

Suffice to say it was no guarantee of Theranos quality as a company

1.butchers.bike sorry this is totally irrelevant to Alba but ive fallen in love with Australian opals recently, mainly black and boulder opals, and have been watching an auction site waiting for one I love to catch my eye to treat myself to

Amazing how nature can produce such beautiful things, by far the most beautiful gem stone

An interesting case study for QE is Japan, they started in early 2000s before everyone else and theyve been stuck with deflation since the early 90s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvppJ-MhE6A&ab_channel=WallStreetJournal interesting short video about it

I think because its all weve ever known we think house prices can only go up up up but they peaked in Japan in 1991
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS

QE has been so "effective" in Japan theyve moved on to doing not just QE but QQE!, article about it -https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/11/20/qqe-to-the-moon-deflation-returns-to-japan-anyway

You hear people talk about venezuela , Weimar germany etc and hyperinflation but for some reason the Japanese deflation story isnt really discussed

JONNO100 on a more general note my biggest worry for the future is that instead of realising theres no jobs and a bad economy because of monetary problems people will become disillusioned and blame democracy/capitalism and look for alternatives in the far left or right

"what negative effects if any do you think QE has?"

Im just going to speak on Fed QE, with other central banks it may be slightly different

The financial crisis 2008 QE made total sense, the Fed swapped MBS that financial institutions couldnt use to balance their books any longer for treasuries which would

Subsequent QEs just swapping treasuries for bank reserves Im not sure what the point is.. they say it lowers rates but
the New Zealand central bank admits it barely does anything - https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-tools/large-scale-asset-purchases

"Studies found the government bond purchases worth 10 percent of GDP have, on average, lowered 10-year government bond yields by around 50 basis points."

10% of GDP to get only 50 basis points lower aka 0.5% - if you look at bonds yields pre March QE they were already on the floor so is QE really doing anything in that regard? its like when the Fed lower the funds rate and rates are already on the floor, they just seem to pretend they control and lead things whereas in reality they react

One good for the US government is they dont need to pay the coupon payments when the Fed are holding the bond so its a no interest loan

A negative is it pulls collateral that financial institutions want out of the market, probably why the Feds so busy lending out 1 trillion+ of securities every day

Idk theres a million little things to talk about with it big and small, mostly it seems to be a Wizard of Oz act which pretty much sums up central banks

Nap, go read all Jeff Sniders articles on the topic - https://alhambrapartners.com/commentaryanalysis/

He also has very digestible videos with Emil Kalinowski on the topic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8kdgZztxgU&ab_channel=EmilKalinowski

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OkSjgTdSrQ&ab_channel=EmilKalinowski

All his opinions are based on looking at economic data - if you arent sure go check his references and look it up for yourself on sites like https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

Since March 2020 Ive spent an hour or two a day learning about the banking system, eurdollars, repo market, 2007/8 etc

The funny thing is because I like gold before 2020 I was swamped with people talking about QE as money printing, inflation, evil central banks ruling the world, Mike Maloney, "hidden secrets of Money" Bill Still "the money masters" etc etc etc Ive consumed it all trust me I have, I have consumed it all and believed it all

it was learning that QE is bank reserves not currency that was the hook that reeled me in to want to learn whats actually going on, it totally broke my gold bug world view and Ive spent the past year+ being challenged on my views and still finding zero fault

So please dont ignorantly tell me "thats what the main stream are telling you"

"Consider, for example, that inflation is expected to hit 4% in the UK. Do you think interest rates could be hiked to, say 5% to bring it under control?"

No because is current "inflation" currency related? no, its supply chain and transport

So would approaching this as a currency related issue be appropriate: no, because oddly interest rates dont effect supply chain and transport issues

Look at consumer spending - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/consumer-spending click on 10y so you get a line, Now plot out where the line should be, then work out ?how much currency isnt flowing through the economy that should be

This "inflation" will be transitory and inflation isnt good for gold anyway, deflation is - as current global economic conditions look pretty terrible thats why gold is looking good

Botty, idk ive consulted my tea leaves and they say different

Let me check my celestial chart this evening and maybe I will pluck the feather from a wild goose and see what direction it falls when I drop it to make us a full action

Botty, master trader cant figure out how to upload to a hosting site like imgur and post a url

Yes the problem is he seemed very confident in the report they gave but still it was rejected

If the Welsh authorities are this picky then is getting anything done likely

Probably people who anticipate it could lower

A sharp initial drop, a bounce for people to get out and then a much longer downward trend wouldnt be too unusual in this type of scenario

Is there any news that could come soon to turn this around? or at least stabilise

Bamps for what its worth I think their message was 100% tongue in cheek and said with a wink

It was like joking at a BBQ who ate the last beef burger and someone saying "oh it must have been Jenny ;) (the only vegetarian) - the joke is just giving the silliest answer everyone knows is wrong

Youre the last person someone could call into question and thats why they picked you, just to be silly.

Robbie2017 I pray theyre trolling and dont believe their own bs just for their own sake

Botty, I personally like technical analysis when used correctly but I havent found it to be reliable when predicating approval of dewatering permits.. weird huh, almost like the two arent connected at all.

Bamps I would very much like to see any images you have produced

Yeah they dont make it very clear

I think they did black and red for new and grey and blue for previously reported to make the new ones stand out more, but then they also do grey for awaiting assays

Be nice if they just did an image of all the pending assays to see whats to come still but extra work I guess

If you look at pages 35/36/37/38 which is more vertical sliced through the earth view you can see the angle of the drills and how they come down