Member Info for MontyMcgree

From stuff I've read a ground invasion of Iran would be very difficult to resupply and spending a fortune to shoot down cheap drones (which apparently the US has already done) or having them blow up your expensive military equipment would be right pain in the bottom

Drones seem like total game changer for allowing smaller nations to defend themselves

"If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken. Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools"

I see the sage advice today on the board is to expect volatility, I said the same thing yesterday and that's why I couldn't rule out 5.40 and was mocked for it; I guess that's the price I pay for being 24 hours ahead of my time.

I did start off the post by saying

"As long as gold is still trending downwards I think we have to have a negative view on GGP"

From the replies here, albeit maybe OP was trying to get a reaction so I can understand the annoyance, but still I do think we need to be open to 5.40 being possible

But again while I do think it's possible "things seem so volatile and fragile in the markets god knows what will happen in the short term"

Did me reposting what I said with a little narration help?

As long as gold is still trending downwards I think we have to have a negative view on GGP

I wouldn't like to predict 5.40 but I also wouldn't like to rule it out

Things seem so volatile and fragile in the markets god knows what will happen in the short term

This is a price prediction from December 2012

"Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA ML) metals strategist Michael Widmer and global investment strategist Francisco Blanch have maintained a $2,000/oz target on gold in expectation of further monetary easing by the world’s central banks next year.

“Having traded just above $1,500/oz through most of 2012, prices finally saw an uplift in late-summer as expectations over aggressive policy easing materialised into announcements by the Fed and the ECB of additional support,” they wrote in their 2013 outlook.

“We have a six-month target of $2,000/oz, but see scope as well for prices to rise to $2,400/oz by the end of 2014. These targets reflect our view that the Fed will maintain mortgage purchases until the end of 2014 and will move to buy Treasuries following the end of Operation Twist in December 2012.”

Gold would fall 30% by July 2013, still 35% down to $1050 in 2016

I'm sure I could find other references and other dates they were wrong but I think you get the idea

YNWA91 - "If you knew gold was going to drop by this much surely you would have sold the lot and waited to buy back in"

If only I did know, I was just trying to stay realistic that things could go either way and not get swept up into euphoria of gold can only go up; I first talking about a drop in December, obviously gold went on to have that rapid rise and GGP went up 70% so thankfully I didn't just jump to act

I did sell 20% at 7.30, maybe that number should have been 40%

Personally I'm in a strange position in that I had the best year of my life financially in 2025 because of how my business performed, it's made my position in GGP far less significant even with the incredible rise; I'm more cash rich than I've ever been and need to put that money into investments so to cash out of anything feels a step in the wrong direction

Speedy can't afford to waste a decade just because gold will go up eventually

If you bought gold at the peak in 1980 you would need to wait until 2006 to break even, without considering inflation; in 2011 you would need to wait until 2020

Could argue I've wasted 6 years in GGP if the price drops as far as I fear it might, well, 5 years were definitely a waste

In December/January I posted about the possibility of a 50% pull back in gold while others were talking about it being just the start of a bull run

For instance January 20th I posted

"At some point it will drop 40% and you would be forgiven from just looking at chart to think it could drop at any time given the incredible rise, looks unsustainable, but given the state the world it should have legs yet" (the optimism at the end you can see I was a bit delusional myself)

I also tried to warn people from buying silver, I knew random joe bloggs who had never been interested in silver buying coins; it seemed peak bubble

I joined a precious metals forum in 2014 and there were a lot of unhappy silver buyers who mentioned regretting their 2011 purchases and its took 15 years for them to break even on those coins; how long will it take for the January 2026 purchases?

I see a lot of bullish takes on gold here still, I'm wondering if we are still in the delusion phase and the potential we might see sub $3500 gold and $50 silver prices for a few years 🤔

I bet if I looked at people talking about gold in 2011 they would all be predicting the only way is up with 100 reasons why, a lot of the same reasons we would all mention now, yet gold still dropped 45% and languished between $1k-1.4k for most of a decade before making a new ATH in 2020

Time will tell

That is surprising he sold if true, he seemed euphorically bullish

Zoros, my guess is JoubertDuquense is also ProfessorStax

Both have the unusual habit of typing "word !" and adding a space between the exclamation

No idea why people need multiple accounts though.

I can't say it's incoming but I also can't say it's impossible with momentum going in the wrong direction

I'm in a strange position where I'm hoping it will drop more so I can put the 20% I sold at 7.30 back in to end up with more shares

This is what I see on the gold chart - https://i.ibb.co/cchbxnhW/Screenshot-2026-06-09-144454.png

Until it breaks out of this channel I will keep a negative opinion on gold

To me it fits and makes sense and I don't think you have to be a genius to deduce the current trend is downwards, but just my opinion of course

JD, you are getting close to understanding what's going on

"At the same time, FOREIGN CBs are REDUCING their share of Treasury holdings"

The world runs on liquidity, dollars and US debt

When foreign CB have an excess of dollars they turn them into treasuries, when there is a high demand for dollars they have to sell off those treasuries to try and fulfil the demand for dollars

We should be thankful there are a lot of t-bills because they provide collateral in lending and without liquidity the whole global economy quickly turns to ****; doesn't matter how much blood you have if your heart isn't pumping it around your body

To try and paint a narrative US debt is being dumped to buy gold is naive

I don't think we can look at the gold price today and think about gold specifically, obviously something bigger going on

"The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue"

Hopefully it's true but bear in mind it's coming from "two US officials" who may or may not want to manipulate the markets, but fingers crossed

I've just sold 20%

Nothing to do with GGP just don't love the look of the gold chart nor state of the world and markets atm so seemed reasonable to derisk a little

Felt a bit sick pressing sell tbh, I guess I'm posting this share my trauma and further document my journey

Speedy what happens to global trade without fiat, supermarkets will pay their suppliers in precious metals? will I be taking 1oz silver to Tesco? what will that buy me? what will they give me in change

Or will there be no food in the supermarkets? in which case will I be eating my precious metals

You have mentioned keeping your PMs in bullion banks so that wont be much good if you don't have anything to hand, will delivery companies still be going if no one can be paid? doesn't seem likely; makes my previous question silly since no one will be working to stock supermarkets anyway

I think either we assume fiat currency will keep plodding along or we should be stocking up on canned food and supplies instead of worrying about PMs

Happy Easter to you and all, hope everyone has a great weekend

Very happy myself after the great updates this week, credit to the Shaun and the team as always

Well lets not get our hopes up, could be a bounce before further drop, just have to see what happens