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I feel sorry for the Scotgold investors, I loosely follow the company (never invested) because along with Alba in Wales I find the idea of gold mined in Britain quite romantic
^ I'm sure many of the retail investors felt the same, buy into the dream and get sold down the river.
Havieron*
What next "there's actually no gold or copper at Haveiron the drill results have all been spoofed!"
Nothing has fundamentally changed so what would be worrying?
There's no immanent news and we are still a while away from producing any gold, sellers are in control - I will worry about SP next year
More interested/worried about another 2008 style financial disaster on the horizon
Yes but this isnt a typical speculative aim share of if, buts and maybes
We will be producing and it will generate large revenue, just not yet.
I found that forum had a less inviting atmosphere than here, clearly I am not the only who feels that way since its so quiet there.
Look at the numbers at the Feds liquidity and credit facilities
Much bigger than 2020, bigger even than 2008 - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLPCL
This is looking quite precarious
readthecandle you are focusing on what the Fed are doing and not what is actually missing since 2008
Pre 2008 banks were creating trillions of liquidity that disappeared overnight when a lot of MBS were no longer triple A rated and good for balancing books and accessing cash by using them as collateral
Post 2008 you can look at any data, something as simple as US GDP, plot out where it would be if 2008 didnt happen - there is a lot of missing money
Prices of things got skewed post 2020 because they locked the world down and gave people money to spend from home (+ money that would usually go to the leisure industry) shipping container rates went nuts etc; turns out you cant just switch off/on the global economy and everything works just swell
"Keep printing those Dollars, QE infinity is not departing the scene for quite some time and who knows what will happen over the weekend !!"
QE is not money printing, the Federal Resevere cannot create dollars out of nothing, they can however create bank reserves which is a number in an account at the Fed that cant leave the Fed
When you get a voucher from a shop its not considered money printing even if the £10 spent still exists and now a £10 voucher exists = £20, because you had to swap real money for the voucher anyway and you started with 10 and ended up with 10 you can only use in a limited capacity
Also If QE was money printing why is there still such a problem with liquidity after all the QE from March 2020 onward? QE is a bad attempt to put a plaster over a much bigger issue than has been ongoing since 2008
Central banks are a bit of a joke who pretend to control everything but meanwhile are more like a school caretaker just there to try and make sure everything is running right, and meanwhile they dont even do a good job of that and raise rates at the wrong time until everything breaks and theyre forced to say whoops and reverse course
I am finding it more concerning than exciting along with the other warning signs, just waiting for the big collapse of everything.. but I think its safe to say I am a permabear
Right now they all want short term US treasuries because they're the best collateral whilst also balancing their books, that is safety, that is why there is such demand for 4 week treasuries
Interesting that the Federal Reserve think things look bad enough they had to create a new "Bank Term Funding Program" - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/monetary20230312a1.pdf
They will be forced to admit they were wrong and lower rates before everything breaks sooner rather than later
I agree with you Speedy gold will be turned to for safety and prices will rise over the next several years even if there is a sharp decline, not because I believe currency will be worthless but because lending and investing into the economy wont look particularly attractive.
Sorry I linked the wrong video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeLx0qAt30o&ab_channel=EurodollarUniversity
A tweet from 3 hours ago -
"Major, massive collateral squeeze again this morning. This one didn't show up until 7:30am and it has been concentrated in the front bills, especially the 4w (as usual).
RRP is 4.55%, so way, way below it.
Continuing meltdown."
Jeff Snider is reporting a collateral run, which means financial institutions are in full panic mode, Jeff is not a fear merchant either but a very level headed reporter of bond news
Remember everything will get sold off for liquidity including gold so it could be we see a sharp decline in everything if things get bad enough
Jeff video today discussing how bad things are looking - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRXfboVgBb8&ab_channel=EurodollarUniversity
Speedy I have to say I am shocked and shook
A gold bug as big as yourself who uses storage? what about the goldbug motto "if you don't hold it you don't own it"
Also my experience has always been dealers offer just below spot, maybe right now its different
Everyone prefers sovereigns in the uk but if youre going to sell back to a dealer eventually gold is gold and it wont matter really
But if you want to sell on the secondary market sovs are a little better - I sold some sovereigns on a FB group a few months ago (Numistacker) and got spot price and they paid postage so it was a good deal vs selling to a dealer, albeit with more risk
"Rising rates = lower values for bonds, banks assets are mostly bonds. To stem a bank run the banks need funds to pay out so sell bonds at a loss to cover."
There shouldn't really be a problem with older bonds having a lower value because all they have to do is hold them until maturity and they get the currency back all the same
In an ideal world they would hold enough short dated treasuries that reach maturity to cover their liquidity needs
I am not sure if SVB couldnt get enough short dated treasuries (or potentially other triple A rated paper) and decided to gamble on longer bonds being ok and that is part of why they are in the pickle they are - it seems to be the case.
It shows again what is king: liquidity aka ability to have currency at hand when needed, cant operate without it.
Panama, this is a post from Bamps on the topic
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How can you compare Havieron with other large mines?
Let’s have a look at Cadia where they are ramping up to 35m tons
Indicated resources only
2,600mt 0.35g/t and 0.26%
Havieron
28mt 3.2g/t and 0.51%
Looks no comparison Cadia looks miles better and is one of the Worlds major mines.
35m tons pa at 0.36g/t is 405,000oz
3mt tons pa at 3.2g/t is 302,000oz
So just looking at the gold the cost to produce 405,000oz at Cadia is way way higher than Havieron, but the copper silver and molybdenum brings the costs down to a negative AISC.
Looking at Red Chris the difference is startling 36x more ore to produce similar amounts as Havieron.
This is all to do with the high grade ore.
The weaker ores are not yet in any resources at Havieron , this won’t happen till they’re confident in the estimation.
The cut offs are 1g/t, at Red Chris they’re 0.1g/t
High grade estimation in complex sulphides is very complicated and needs more drilling to confirm estimates.
Estimating in low grade ores is less complicated and needs less drilling to confirm estimates.
At Brucejack they’ve just announced a lower cut off, this will reduce grades but give estimations more confidence .
This will happen at Havieron at some point, but the high grade mine is far more valuable and far more economical than most low grade mines
Speedy, what exactly are you asking me?
The value of it being already being built and ready to go? generating revenue hopefully in 2024 vs the cost and delay of building something new?
"Telfer has a negative value and that can be used to negotiate a lower price"
How much would it cost, and just as importantly how long would it take to build something new?
Telfer on its own yes not great, Telfer combined with Hav has great value
I don't think it fits in realm of possibility NCM or Newmont would want to stall generating making hundreds of millions from Hav