Member Info for MontyMcgree

Are we recreating discussions from yesterday?

I will just repost the best reply from lebugue-addick

"Shaun Day:

* orchestrated the MRE upgrade to 6.5 million ounces of gold equivalent which itself is ultra cautious by his own admission;
* has put in place a strong management team capable of holding its own in discussions with Newcrest and others;
* arranged for the JV team to meet 5 times a month, adding to GGP's credibility as an increasingly knowledgeable company
* has not let Newcrest get their way on buying the 5% at the first opportunity - clearly negotiating hard on behalf of shareholders to maximise the $ from what appears to be a less than favourable agreement
* engages strongly with shareholders and the media to sell the GGP story
* has a track record of creating shareholder value everywhere he's been
* has attracted more institutional shareholder to the register
* notes "bank financing underway with objective to be fully funded up until free cashflow"
etc"

"just SP and MCap shows there facts."

Tesla in 2021 market cap was more than the top 9 automakers around the world whilst under 1% of total car sales

Carnival Cruises market cap got back to pre pandemic levels in 2021 despite taking on huuge debts and nowhere near the revenue and profits

Or probably the best example, GGP 38p in late 2020 with so much less known and developed than right now

The only facts SP show is that they can be very detached from reality for periods of time.

Reading the Bitcoin memes on twitter I have seen quite a few replies saying Bitcoin is valuable because of its limited supply but gold on the other hand, well, 31 million tonnes has just been discovered in Uganda! as reported on mining.com, bitcoin.com etc

"Uganda Claims the Country Has 31 Million Tonnes of Gold Ore — 320,158 Metric Tons of Refined Gold Is up for Prospect"

"Over the last two years, aerial exploration was done across the country followed by geophysical and geochemical surveys and analyses,"

Wow they managed to discover all that in two years, what have Newcrest and GGP been doing the past couple years hey? very slow

From the gold council: The best estimates currently available suggest that around 205,238 tonnes of gold has been mined throughout history

So Uganda has discovered more gold than in two years that has ever been mined throughout history, astounding, seems totally realistic doesn't it (haha)

How does this stuff get reported and taken seriously

Saying we could just abruptly switch to a new reserve currency tomorrow is like saying we could just forget about oil and gas and switch to green energy tomorrow; You have to transition over time otherwise everything would collapse

You also need elasticity in money, the idea we could go back to a gold standard is silly, here are a couple article discussing how banking evolved in the early 20th century, clearing certificates, rise of checks etc

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/04/22/the_root_of_the_petrodollar_error_is_that_there_is_one_828462.html

https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/modern-elasticity-and-the-appearance-of-quasi-money?post=94035&page=4

I will keep it to that because people complain.

KnParker, I get your thinking but why would Newcrest have exercised their right to the 5% at all

As Hav is further uncovered how inept will they look not taking the 5%; theyre going to get a great deal since it only consists of data upto December 2021

mercedesman,

Newcrest exercised their right to the 5% in December, then both parties had until February to come up with a number, if the figures were within 20% of one another they would meet half way

If the figure weren't close enough, they would be passed on to an independent arbitrator, who wold assess fair value and pick the number either Newcrest or GGP gave

^ That is what is happening currently

When the independent comes back with hopefully the GGP number, Newcrest have the right to say yes or no, presumably they will say yes

SD described the number if I remember correctly as "deeply conservative"

I didn't say important Spades but interesting, pog, "inflation", interest rates etc and their effect on the profitability of the starter mine are interesting to discuss

It wouldn't be too surprising if central bank have to do a complete 180 and back to QE before 2023 though

I would also be interested in discussing copper, not looking so good on the charts currently

But yes replies since have been personal, people trying to bait further arguments, not ideal

Spade an interesting discussion is happening and its being derailed by personal attacks, please lets the discussion happen.

Well the clue is in the name "Treasury Auctions": They're bidding on the yield aka who will give the lowest interest loan

"An auction market participant can submit either (a) one or
more competitive bids, each specifying a minimum yield at
which the participant is prepared to buy a specified quantity
of notes"

You pay the face value, in my example $100, so $100

"With $10bn free QE Dollars spread amongst the US bank"

1)Bank has $100
2) Banks buys treasury at auction, now has $0 and one treasury
3) Federal reserve swaps the treasury for 100 in bank reserves (not dollars, bank reserves that cant leave the Fed balance sheet)

So bank started with $100 and ended up with... 100 in bank reserves

That is the reality.

Very interesting, thanks Bamps

LSE removed my post replying to JiffyBag, odd,

My reply was regarding "But they the UK government and the BOE do print at will."

Print what? read the Bank of Englands website explaining QE, they repeatedly say they create bank reserves to swap for gilts, not money, bank reserves. Central banks do PR, it can be quite misleading.

I assume this as aimed at me, If you find my posts boring that is absolutely fine but let me clarify the following:

I have been invested here since June 2020

None of my posts are plagiarised, that is very easy to check

If I had spent the past two years reading and posting on here to troll then the troll would really be on myself and very sad indeed

MkivSupra, most importantly, as I already pointed out previously

I am a bank , I have £100
I buy a bond at auction for £100
The central bank swaps my bond for 100 in bank reserves

I started out with £100 and and now I have 100 in reserves, no gain, nothing extra

Reserves cannot leave a central banks balance sheet and can only be used in a very limited capacity, does that meet the definition of currency? no.

"it's all very confusing, but maybe it is suppossed to be painted as so? :O)"

I resent you suggesting ive tried to be pompous by making it more confusing that it needs to be, someone asked me a question and I took my time to write out the best answer I could

If you think what I wrote was confusing this is a lil snippet from a recent Jeff Snider article talking about the Eurodollars future curve

"All curves are essentially probability distributions, and what that means is when inverted the market is hedging a very high possibility something bad happens between now and that contract (and those behind) which would lead to 3-month LIBOR being less than before that point on the curve."

Yeah I get it, it is a headache, that is why I said earlier in the thread rather than bothering to understand how things really work with money "people love the narrative that central banks and government control money, that they print it at will, this causes inflation, so you better have gold and silver to protect yourself; its easy to understand"

This is how I understand it, may get some of the specifics wrong but the basic premise is right

AAA rated MBS were considered as good as holding cash or treasuries on balance sheets

Financial institutions were also using AAA rated MBS as collateral to lend to one another, this provided a lot of liquidity

Credit rating agencies looked at MBS in 2007 and decided they had been very generous and started downgrading the AAA ratings

Now, because they were no longer Triple A rated they didn't balance the books so no one wanted them, no one wanting them in repo, things became totally illiquid, books couldn't be balanced, fire sales, chaos

Central banks stepped in and saved the bigger players, did QE, swapped the MBS for treasuries and banks reserves

The mbs didnt become worthless btw, If I remember correctly the Fed made 100 billion+ from the MBS they swapped for

Yes its a broken system now because banks are all risk adverse, they don't want to be another Lehman brothers and there is a shortage in collateral, you see it in almost every chart

If I could draw you attention to this one https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/nonfinancial_debt/chart/

Plot out yourself the trajectory of household and business debt from 1990 - 2008 and imagine if the upward curve had continued, where it should be now with no financial crisis, things have never recovered

"The Fed launched its reverse repo program (RRP) in 2013"

That is the Feds little version of the repo market but the Fed is only allowed to deal with "primary dealers" a few select banks, they dont operate in the real repo market

Spade, I have a very basic understanding of the monetary system, all the banking and financial lingo is hard on the brain + the repo market itself and what they get up to I've heard described as like quantum mechanics

But I do know enough to know what I dont know, and I do know i am at least in the right track.

Speedy, I feel like I wrote some long posts about this already

Currency is created by debt, aka commercial banks lending + whatever games and magic they get up to lending to one another in the repo market

Government debt is premium collateral and precious within the monetary system, so its not a problem, there is a big demand for it

Yes there has to be inflation for it to work, if I remember correctly I think the Federal Reserve themselves say 3% a year is what they think is healthy

Jerry, people love the narrative that central banks and government control money, that they print it at will, this causes inflation, so you better have gold and silver to protect yourself; its easy to understand and on the surface lines up quite with what people are told, see and experience

The reality of the monetary system is wayyy more complex and interesting,

Giving Willem the benefit of the doubt maybe he knows better but also knows the above is what people want to hear and they wouldnt understand if he tried to explain different anyway