RE: Peace plan leaked7 Feb 2025 09:55
"Does anyone seriously think that when Putin inevitably celebrates this as a victory that the West will start lifting sanctions?"
Yes. Not saying it will happen overnight, but the pressure from European businesses for governments and the EU to follow the US lead so they can resume/normalise their investments in Russia will be enormous. It's also quite conceivable, to my mind, that Putin will very quickly remove Russia's exit restrictions to force European hands: "hey guys, we're open for business, isn't it about time you let your companies come back?"
Once a peace plan is agreed, however unsatisfactory, it's surely the only direction of travel, especially if the sweetener is that Russia agrees to Ukraine having a path to EU membership (whether or not Ukraine can ever meet accession requirements, though, is a different matter).