Member Info for Montmuzard

@Ibiza - I can't remember off the top of my head, although I'm sure I've got notes somewhere. The number that sticks in my mind for MSCI mid-cap (which is what I think was the index that bought us) is an market cap of around 8p or $250m. I could be wrong, but it would stand to reason as we came out of suspension at 7.2p and ended up moving up quickly after that.

"The buying here has been controlled and steady, there is something behind the buying IMO, certainly doesn't feel like a "pump"."

Agree wholeheartedly: this feels very controlled to me and I'll happily take 10-15% gains daily between now and the Munich meeting next week.

Following Monkey's earlier point, 26.5p is roughly my minimum too. It has a nice symmetry to it given it was the price of the placing a few years ago as well and I remember thinking when a speeding ticket was issued on the rise up to 42p (there were orders for 50p on the book at close that day) that the board were maybe getting nervous because that was their ballpark figure.

I reckon there could be lots of reasons why a buyer pulled out in 2022/3: Christian seemed genuinely pained about this at the AGM (or maybe the recent investor presentation, can't remember which) and it could be as simple as they didn't want to move forward with a transaction with the war in full swing IMO.

Either way, I also think that the strategic investor is there and waiting, and it is the board who have delayed the sale until now because they can't find the right exit strategy in and among the sanctions regime to preserve value. So, the next question is the strategy: are we going to see an AIX listing and issue of 300m shares @ Xp followed by a strategic investor committing to buying the rest for a higher price, or are the board actually thinking it makes sense to wait for a bit longer now and see if a conventional sale can be pushed through without haircuts and exit fees?

On GM402's point about "some of the posters who have popped up of late, some known for turning up on previous pumps" I think it's fair to say there are a lot of LTHs who just haven't been active here (or have been active elsewhere) because there hasn't been much to say or worth saying. I dare say we're now quite close to herd arriving once more and the pump action being in full swing again, so it's going to get a lot worse.

Septupled, amazing job and amazing word!

Just to add to the price debate a little: how much do people actually think the board would accept themselves? Bearing in mind that Christian has been working on these assets for almost the entire twilight of his career (more than 20 years since he was in his early 50s) and Dmitry has already seen his shareholding balloon to £200m in value previously? My strong sense is that they have a price in mind and it isn't the chicken feed you see bandied around on the forums. Nearly all the lowball values also reflect the draining of confidence, sanctions and restrictions induced by the war. But if that's all coming to an end, however slowly, then those factors disappear to be replaced by ones that generate confidence. Only way is up, potentially a long way up IMO.

@Monkey - We're now just 1p away from exceeding my average, and I've happily trebled my holding since the initial shock of February and March 2022 waned. Won't be selling a single share until the bitter end.

"It’s been a nice ride recently but you’re kidding yourself on if you truly believe 40p+ is happening here"

Why? The share price rose beyond 40p previously and this is only around $1.5bn before costs and taxes. We know for a fact that one NKT pit alone has an NPV of $1.7bn and metals prices are rising. Add in the other assets — The two pits at Monchetundra itself, a second NKT pit — and you're looking at an NPV in excess of $4bn and possibly a lot more. Then factor in the effect of the war ending, sanctions being dismantled alongside Russian exit taxes, and a flood of investment returning to Russia. You may even be able to add the re-starting of development at Nyud, too.

So, while it's quite plausible that we will not get 40p, it's probably also true that the time for a firesale has now long since passed. If the BOD wanted out on the cheap, they would have done it over two years ago. Therefore, I don't think you can reasonably argue that 40p is unachievable. Unlikely, perhaps, but far from impossible IMO.

Looks like we're off for another trot into close now

3.63 to sell, 3.70 to buy. Spread still very tight. Upward momentum continues 🚀

Hold on to your hats!

Sell quotes increasing too - getting 3.37p to sell a 50K chunk, and it was 3.27 ten mins ago

Agreed, feels like it could burst at any moment: all the pressure is in one direction

Feels primed for another push forward - lots of noise behind the scenes about war ending.

Looks like we're off to the races again 🚀🚀🚀

What a marvellous day. A few more like that and it'll be time for a glass of rum.

It's not a pump. We know the value of the assets and how the share price has fallen so far below the value of the company during the war. The war is coming to an end, ergo it stands to reason that the stock was eventually going to start rising again. We also know that news on a secondary listing is (or should be) relatively close. Add to that the fact that lots of investors took money off the table over the past couple of years, and are waiting on the sidelines, it also stands to reason that any hint that they might get locked out by a rapidly rising share price will see people jump in. Everyone knows how fast EUA moves when it's rising.

Ramming speed - 3.15p

Absolutely motoring now - is today going to be like old times!?

Feel like it's only a matter of time now until we breach 3p finally, and can start the long trek northwards. It's been a long time coming.

There's also not much happening. We're in a range awaiting news. A bit of consolidation around 5p is all good for the next leg up, whenever it begins ...

News long overdue and anticipation that Astana listing could be imminent. Plus YJ have confirmed to some shareholders that the company is preparing an update to market. So Friday FOMO IMO.