Member Info for Montmuzard

It moves so quickly from the lows

Volume tiny today, just 3m traded, so with this morning's shake attempt done, it's hard to see much movement in either direction unless that changes. So we'll likely finish somewhere around where we are now.

Definitely attractive. I wonder, also, whether the potential easing of sanctions has strengthened their hand a little bit in negotiations with any outside investor. They can plausibly say to them now: "look, we could realistically execute Sinosteel now if we wanted to, it would take 2-3 years to build the mine, by which time we're prepared to take the risk that the war will be long over and some kind of normality will have resumed". When set against the risk of not securing the assets, or paying much more in future, any investor would be concerned about this. FWIW, my favoured option right now would be a JV: Eurasia sell a chunk of the company for a few hundred million to spread the risk, we all get a reasonable dividend now, and then we enjoy half the future profits in an era, hopefully, of rising metals prices. Not gonna happen though. I think CS and DS both want out, as they've done their time.

Yeah it was an example, I'm not expecting that much. Just illustrative. But who knows? I sold NCYT at something like £1.50 thinking the major part of the rise was finished!

@Wig, quite, and even if diluted to 500m shares in issue, that's still more than £1 a share (a 20-bagger) if a US major pulls the trigger on a $1bn buyout, which is peanuts in light of both their resources and the assets here.

The asset hasn't withered: they've been stripping and mining WK and have stated repeatedly that MT has been maintained in a sale-ready state. It's obvious why they haven't been mining: in the aftermath of the Ukraine war they still thought a sale was on track, and, since then, it's obviously been difficult in light of sanctions risks and they want to sell, not mine. I'd love it if they activated Sino and got building, but they clearly don't want to, and maybe there has been a strategic investor all along who has told them to wait until they can find the right exit structure.

FWIW, my view in recent months has increasingly been that it could be the company that has held up a sale: maybe an investor has been happy to pay $$XX all along, but the value of that money has been obliterated by the ratcheting up of Russian state discounts and exit taxes. So the board have said, hang on, let's get an Astana listing, you pay the same money to buy out the share capital, and we'll gradually move your people into Eurasia so it's a management buyout. Maybe this is why Firstov is no longer in charge of the Russian subs ...

4.59p to sell decent clips now, 4.75 to buy. We're ticking up gradually again. A bit of consolidation before the next big rise up to the 8-9p levels IMO.

Finally got a buy quote at 4.57. So looks like the real spread is 4.44-4.57 at present.

Impossible to get a buy quote for even £1k worth at these levels …

Whoever has been spamming the bid all day really does have a fetish for the number 4.72.

Course they don't - it's a fake price. Unless you're selling, in which case they'll gobble them up for whoever the big buyer is in the background.

Yep, yesterday's RNS was regulatorily forced on them, and they did what they could to make it as positive as possible.

Someone is definitely spamming the bid deliberately. A selection of the 4.72p trades from the past hour or so:

11:19:43Z GBp 4.7 2589 121.68 Off-book XOFF

11:19:43Z GBp 4.72 1362 64.29 AT AIMX

11:12:57Z GBp 4.925 3500 172.2 Off-book AIMX

11:12:02Z GBp 4.7 128 6.02 Off-book XOFF

11:08:06Z GBp 4.72 129 6.09 Off-book XOFF

11:06:48Z GBp 4.925 11142 548.19 Off-book AIMX

11:04:51Z GBp 4.72 136 6.42 Off-book XOFF

11:00:43Z GBp 4.72 3678 173.6 Off-book XOFF

10:59:17Z GBp 4.72 482 22.75 Off-book XOFF

10:51:28Z GBp 4.72 142 6.7 Off-book XOFF

10:45:43Z GBp 4.72 643 30.35 Off-book XOFF

10:45:43Z GBp 4.72 179 8.45 Off-book XOFF

10:44:16Z GBp 4.72 5449 257.19 Off-book XOFF

10:40:23Z GBp 4.72 350 16.52 Off-book XOFF

10:36:03Z GBp 4.72 1363 64.33 Off-book XOFF

10:34:33Z GBp 4.72 136 6.42 Off-book XOFF

10:26:44Z GBp 4.72 1351 63.77 Off-book XOFF

Just look at how many of them are (i) off-book and (ii) absolutely tiny. If you look at the trades more closely (i.e. a wider sample) anything above this (even 4.9p) is often considerably larger and not off-book. So it logically follows that somebody is up to something IMO.

Agree: I've been getting NCYT vibes from IMM since the news in early January.

Anyone using Google will be confused as to what the SP is because the MMs keep reporting trades late (wonder why) so it fluctuates heavily, and there are lots of very small trades that either go through at the bottom of the bid, or the top of the ask, exacerbating this tendency. The real spread is much tighter: hovering around 5p currently.

They don't seem to be able to shake many out of holders either. Strong hands.

"Also today marks the 4 days above 4p, so warrants will/can be exercised, brining more shares in the market to sell"

Well the warrant holders aren't going to sell them unless the price is substantially above 4p, are they? Plus, the additional revenue goes straight to the company's bottom line, reinforcing its cash position and, ultimately, it's value.

Jesus, the derampers are trying hard today, aren't they?

Yes, they do. They do it because of market abuse regulations. The company is now fully insulated against potential accusations that its staff are trading with insider information, and they have made it quite clear that there is no FURTHER material information that could be spiking the share price. The implication, therefore, is not that they were "querying" their recent climb, but rather reinforcing it, because an increasing value accords with the information already released and, although there is no new material info right now, there is clearly plenty of info that could become material at any moment.

Maybe they've signed NDAs with prospective counterparties? You never know...

The moves are going to get bigger and bigger now in cash terms as well: a 50% gain from 2p is half a penny; but a similar rise from 5.5p is well over two pence. Confident we'll be pushing beyond 10p in the next few sessions.