Member Info for Montmuzard

Ticked up and going on another trot this avo. Nice to see some movement here at long last.

I rewatched the whole of the webinar a couple of weeks ago and it gave me a huge amount of reassurance (not that I needed it). There are lots of interesting tidbits in there if you read between the lines: the most striking one for me, was a throwaway comment to the effect that the company have had lots of different offers from interested parties. This is a striking admission if true. The implication, surely, is that they're all still at the table, but it is the company that hasn't wanted to or been able to execute on them, due, presumably, to the fact that the exit taxes would be too high.

One day, hopefully not too far from now, we're going to look back on how the board navigated this war and preserved shareholder value to a far greater extent than many believed while we were in the midst of it. Just two weeks until a full ceasefire now according to Witkoff. The clock is ticking. As much as I'd like to know what the strategy is now, I'm personally quite happy to wait until after that for them to release news.

Green ghouls in their little green prisons getting desperate today by the looks of things.

"He has never been interested in making a deal"

Quite the contrary: Putin needs an off-ramp more than just about anyone in this sorry scenario. Zelenskyy knows he's about to enjoy a sunny retirement. Trump has another four years. But Putin has cost his country a lot of money, a lot of lives, and a lot of international support, and he needs to bring this all to an end. Everyone is totally exhausted by it. There's very little left for him to gain at this stage. He already has as much territory as he's going to get. He knows that, with Zelenskyy gone, he'll be able to start meddling in Ukrainian politics again. So it's time for peace, and time for Russian elites to be able to visit their Parisian mistresses again. If Putin messes this up, there's no guarantee that it couldn't all start to unravel for him domestically.

"will someone tell starmer too f off and keep his nose out"

He's literally the PM of a major European military power that is a key stakeholder in the process. You might not like him (and neither do I, personally) but the notion that he doesn't have a role to play, or a position to defend as a significant broker, is just ludicrous.

I see the green coffins are out in force today. Maybe looking for something to short to the tune of £400K again. It worked so well for them last time. Mugs.

If they announce a ceasefire today, we're going way beyond 8p IMO and into an entirely new range similar to where we were at before war kicked off (i.e. 12p+ in my view). At that point, I fully expect the BOD to release news to place a new floor under the share price and sustain them as they pursue whatever the exit strategy now is, whether MBO or asset sale.

FWIW, on the MBO, if they issued 300m new shares to a strategic investor as part of a secondary listing in Kazakhstan at, say, 12p, that would generate £36m straight away (more than enough to pay down Sanderson and, if they wanted, issue a 1p dividend) while pushing the SP up further. That could be a nice little sweetener for the strategic investor to then, say, take out the rest at a pre-agreed price: 25p would cost them far less than £1bn to get the whole company and 30p would still be just under too. Plenty of upside from here yet.

The 6.7p UT is a nonsense: there were buys going through on the bell at just a smidgeon under 7p. Should see a very decent rise tomorrow in line with whatever the outcome of the Trump-Putin call will be.

Almost impossible to buy stock in any quantity today, especially on any weakness. Feels like we're in a holding pattern now waiting for news: big boys load up in the background, MMs hoarding stock at these levels for the inevitable move up when a peace deal is signalled. Hope everyone got their accumulating done during the nearly-three years we were hovering around 2p. I know I did.

Looks like lots of early buying pressure incoming

12-15p in the first instance, at which point hopefully the BOD will release an RNS with an update on exit strategy to push up towards whatever ballpark figure they have agreed with a strategic investor.

Tell him to put a £400K short on it. Worked really well last time.

Rums all round shipmates - what a great, great day!

Dear oh dear, off to the green penitentiary you go. Mug.

"As always sale price will be what someone is willing to pay.....talk of 40-50 is fanciful to say the least.."

No it isn't. A sale price is also dependent on what the company is willing to accept, which is (in my view) the whole reason we've been waiting so long. As Christian said in the webinar, they've talked to lots of counterparties and had plenty of offers (he literally says this completely unprovoked in a moment of candour, which surprised me on re-watching it recently) but for whatever reason, haven't got them over the line. The obvious fly in the ointment is the Russian haircuts and exit fees.

But an MBO would get around that. It's entirely plausible that you could structure an MBO whereby the secondary listing sees the dilutive 300m shares placed on the market in a direct sweetened sale for the strategic investor at, say, 10p or 15p, then the buyer has to accrue another 20% as the share price rises rapidly on the open market, before Dmitry and Christian (and by implication other shareholders) then have theirs taken out at a significant premium of 30p or more. So in that context, I see no reason why 40p is not achievable (that's not to say it will happen) as this route on these figures would only cost a strategic investor about £1bn, and 100% of the proceeds would go directly to shareholders, avoiding all exit complications as the company would not be exiting, only the composition of its share capital would be changing.

Moreover, PGM prices are rising, not falling. We're potentially at the start of another bull market. We know for a fact that one NKT pit has an NPV of $1.7bn. We also know that the company has pursued a second pit at NKT for which they are awaiting a mining licence (perhaps they now have it) on top of the two MT pits at Loipi and Nittis, and that there has been an upgrade (how much of an upgrade we don't know) in the DFS. So that's a minimum NPV of $3-4bn in my view, possibly more, and much more as metals prices rise and it goes into production towards the end of the decade. If a strategic investor can take it out for £1bn, they're getting an absolute bargain, not least since they'll have Eurasia's accumulated expertise which will allow them to do all the exploratory work on the Rosgeo assets and rinse and repeat the cycle.

Oh, and WK might only be worth a few pence in sale terms, but it's a blinding asset. Don't forget that it is fully electrified now and they have a flanks licence there too. Wouldn't surprise me to see an upgrade in resources at some point.

It looks like we've just taxied to the end of the runway ready for another trip north - 6.45p to sell and buy any amount!

“ it could well be $125 Million - We have no way of knowing”

No it couldn’t, and yes we do. The company have been clear at various points that the DFS showed an uplift in resources from what we previously had. So it’s many multiples of $125m. We now one NKT has an NPV of $1.7bn for a fact and there are possibly two pits. We know also that MT has billions of in-situ value so you — even the 2m oz we can be sure of is $2bn of in-situ value at current prices before any uplift at all — so $125m is way, way wide of the mark IMO.

You don’t think CS would accept 50p at this point in time? I’m not sure. As a special dividend, that would equate to an asset sale price of $2.5bn+ once you factor in taxes, fees, exchange rate, and the company’s dividend policy (and it assumes no haircut or exit fees). At the current juncture, with an NPV of maybe about double that, I’d say 50p would see CS rip the buyer’s limbs off. But be interested to know the reasoning for why we can achieve even more than $2.5bn in the near future.

7p gone in four minutes

Well, I've had a dry week so far since Sunday in anticipation of cracking open something very nice on Friday evening.

Absolutely primed for an explosion the next couple of days. This is only going one way IMO. If some kind of peace deal is approved at the summit, maybe even a ceasefire, all bets are off as to where the share price is going 🚀🚀🚀