Member Info for MoneyP1t

OK there are a lot of things we just don't know in terms of Cine performance, at least not until the results are announced. I'm going to assume they won't paint a pretty picture for 2021 so far, but will hopefully show recovery is happening, and at that faster rate than people would expect, that Mooky mentioned.

From my point of view the best measure we have right now is the US box office figures.

So let's look at the DAILY average box office figures in the US (from box office mojo)..

Jan - 2.1m
Feb - 2.1m
Mar - 3.7m
Apr - 6.3m
May - 6.7m
Jun - 13.3m
Jul (ongoing) - 16m (with BW and a number of other decent earners to add that - oh and a nice 5 weekend month)

2019 US Daily average: 31m, we have smashed through the half way back to normality line (and let's not forget we haven't really been releasing films at the same rate as 2019 yet). With many more films still to come, and the figures increasing month after month - especially in the last few weeks.

So in my opinion, it won't be long (relatively speaking) until we start to at least see some improvement in the SP - not saying it will be £1+ by tomorrow or next week or next month, but hopefully soon we'll be back in the 90s, with a nice steady rise from there.

I think a decent return from BW in Cinema vs Disney+ would also go down really well, so fingers crossed on that one!

Ok, it's mostly weekend so far (and it's a long one in the US) but for the first 4 days of the month, the daily average taking is $27m, meaning the box office has already taken $108m in 4 days, or 30% of what it did for the whole of last month.

Cracking start.....with BW still to come!

I'm very much looking forward to Top Gun.....maybe Goose will turn up at the end, and it turns out he was just living with amnesia for the last 30+ years....think I just went full Neighbours there - either way I still have hope and I want to find out! (*Alexa play the Top Gun soundtrack!*)

I know a lot has been said about the box office figures, but I find it useful to see the progress being made month on month and I think it's one of the most important figures we have to go by right now..

US box office figures (our main market) from box office mojo:

Jan - $65,138,132 (7% of 2019 Monthly Average)
Feb - $57,853,539 (down 11% on Jan / 6% of 2019 MA)
Mar - $113,698,913 (up 97% on Feb / 12% of 2019 MA)
Apr - $190,421,442 (up 67% on Mar / 20% of 2019 MA)
May - $208,340,626 (up 9% on Apr / 22% of 2019 MA)
Jun - $390,350,439 (up 87% on May / 41% of 2019 MA)

A jump up from 22% to 41% of the 2019 monthly average in a month is nothing short of amazing, with Black Widow still to come this month.....expecting another big jump towards the path of normality.

I think it's also important to point out the last two week day takings were c$10m - for week day takings this is fantastic!

And FI - I was wrong with my $350m this month, I under estimated - so I am more than happy to have been proved wrong! My next longer term estimate is for us to be back in the range of the 2019 monthly average by the end of September (but secretly hoping for August).

Not sure if it's been posted already (there was a lot of posts yesterday..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-57663436

But some good endorsement of cinema towards the end.

I should also add that the guarantee is backed by Jordan..so you know it's legit.

Sorry I should just add, if anybody wants to buy my shares for....I dunno.....£5/share? Then I will happily sell - you'll also be guaranteed a takeover as soon as the transaction is complete.

I'm with bonkers on this, it would be great but I can't see it happening, but for a very different reason, and one more scientifically proven and based on fact.....I'm just not that lucky.

So sorry guys, it's actually all my fault, call me selfish but I'm still gonna keep hold of all my shares anyway.

Always good to see.

Just been looking at short disclosures for NHC.

They made most of their short plays around the 23rd-26th November, when we were sitting at 55p.

Poor buggers must be gutted, it's genuinely not far off the worst timing possible to make such big short, just as it really started to rise.

Ok it's dropped a bit recently but, I can't see it going below 55p again anytime soon - they really must want out now.

Well I think we all suspected that it would be delayed, and if we did, then I think most of the big investors will have done too - so hopefully not too big of a drop - but what will be will be, makes little difference in the short term.

To be honest, I'd rather a delay on this side of stage 4 opening, than another full lockdown. So choosing to look at it as the second best option and a bit of short term pain for a long term gain.

We're still open and money is still coming in - plus we're hardly the biggest market for CINE.

In terms of the US box office (which is our biggest market), well it's looking fantastic! (relatively speaking)

Last month the US box office made 208,340,626 (which is itself a 220% increase on January at 65m)....we're not even half way through this month yet and we are 4/5ths or 80% (whichever you prefer) of the way to last month's takings at 166,391,128 - c64m taken this weekend alone!

So that month on month increase is on track to continue, and with F9 just around the corner, I think it's going to be a very good month for the BO, and just another step in taking us closer to where we all want to be.

When was the last time you were sitting next to somebody that was coughing for 2 hours in a cinema?

Anyway, if you live your life like that for the rest of your days my friend, it will be very dull - normality, coming to a cinema near you soon!

I'm not sure if the wider market give a hoot what Mooky said - as FI said and after reflection, I agree with him - it is reassuring to hear these things but probably nothing more than that, I think the devil is in the detail..

If the US box office (our main market) are (as of the last two full months) only pulling in slightly more than 1/5th (Apr - 20% and May - 22%) a month compared to what they were hitting on average in 2019 - which don't get me wrong is a vast improvement from where it was (only $313m total between Apr-Dec 2020), then I don't think the big boys will be all itching to jump in.....just yet!

The progress made is really good, but until those BO figures start getting closer to that previous 2019 figure (which I believe won't be too far out - relatively speaking with the movies coming around the corner) then I'd have to agree with FI in the range he put 80-110 - I wish it was on the higher side still though!

Think about it - if we were trading at 300p with normal box office takings, and suddenly the box office money dropped by 4/5ths - if that was applied to the share price, that leaves us at 60p! OK that is the US alone, so a bit drastic - but they are our biggest market.

It's not going to be long now though, as I said BO takings are already increasing month on month, with massive films on the way (way bigger than rhe films we have had so far)...I expect bigger BO increases over the next two months and beyond.

LPD - all contributions should be welcomed, people have different opinions/expectations and that is OK, and there is a lot of good stuff in what you post, as there is with your sparing partner FI. I for one get a lot out of what you both post, I don't agree with you both all the time, but I do appreciate you both posting anyway.

Fair response FI - I thought the same to be honest just after writing that post - although if I wasn't invested then I would have been amused if he had said 'I would rather be the business that is my biggest competitor in the market.'

Don't take my $350m as any kind of scientific estimate, it's a figure slightly more than the average increases we have already seen since March - it's more what I would like to see this month based on where we are and with FF9 in mind, I put it out there to just see if I'm in the right ball park more than anything - I wouldn't bet my CINE shares on it! ;-)

Credit where it is due - you get a lot of stick iTrader (some of it self-inflicted) but great find.

Sorry just checked this, and I'm not sure anybody can post anything on here anymore without it becoming a ****ing contest.

But I am glad it gave some hope and glad it set some realistic expectations.

Personally I don't find it surprising either, but it is good to see such big increases month on month, and plays into what mooky said on iTraders post - that it will be back to 2019 levels sooner than people expect - maybe even FI might start being more optimistic following what mooky said ;-)

Just to add to this though...

And just to clear it up for all, the focus of the post was to show we are moving in the right direction and at some pace, but still some way to go - but with the bigger movies around the corner now, I expect it to increase faster than it has already.

Hoping for a $350m month in June then I think it will really ramp up - and I'm glad to hear Mooky agrees ;-)

Looking at..

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_ytd_secondarytab

Box office takings this year..

Jan - $65,138,132
Feb - $57,853,539 (down 11% on Jan)
Mar - $113,698,913 (up 97% on Feb)
Apr - $190,421,442 (up 67% on Mar)
May - $208,340,626 (up 9% on Apr)
Jun - $92,509,006 (not over - but in just 8 days of the month, which only included one weekend so far - 56% down - but that to me reads as: in 8 days, this month it is already nearly half the takings of last month)

So still a long way to go to get up to the c$943m monthly average for 2019, but still it seems to be going in the right direction to me - expecting a big increase in takings later this month with F9, and then with what is coming out in July onwards, I expect the BO figures to jump up massively - hopefully so will our SP.

Thanks FI - really appreciate the reply.

Thanks FI, I hadn't seen that discussed before or knew it was how it worked on here, so thank you for pointing that out (again)...but just a quick question (for my understanding more than anything else)..

As this is specifically 1 shorter (HCM) which was showing as 0.96 yesterday - so if HCM do still hold a short position, it will still have reduced by at least 0.47 - to take it below that 0.5 mark where it doesn't show, or have I got what you are saying wrong?

Also not suggesting that this will "rocket" (I hate that word, I have read it far too often this year) but, a short reduction is a short reduction - so think we can all agree that this is still in the positive news column regardless of how much of a reduction it is.

I'm just looking on here in the 'CINE Short Positions'

Did I miss something? Their position now looks closed, but still dated 25th..