Member Info for MoneyP1t

It's just done the same thing it has all week, opened at 68p and then dropped down to 65-66, it is a tad frustrating - but it is what it is, won't make any difference to the long term.

Knew I liked scarlet johannson for a reason. Looks to be getting some good coverage too.

The good reviews for Suicide Squad won't hurt either..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58009752

Based on 2021 US BO vs 2019 US BO monthly average - for the half year as a whole - probably around 18-20% (3 months we were pretty much closed).

Just for April to June somewhere starting around 20% and gradually rising up to a little over 40%
For July (on it's own) - will probably finish the month around 60% (maybe just over) - but not part of the first half year results, although would be surprised if that wasn't mentioned.

I'm going with a revenue of around $350m-$400m for the first half of the year - hopefully towards the higher end. Simply based on a %age of what we brought in during 2019 against the US BO for 2019, and taking into account the US is only c75% of our business. And applying that %age to what the BO has brought in this year so far. (And yes I know that doesn't take into account popcorn/new deals/blah blah - it is just a guess for a little bit of fun, because somebody asked a question and I was a little bored waiting for my toast turn golden brown - and yes I find maths fun!)

FULL DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying that is a scientific way of making a guess, please do not shoot me. There are a million and one other factors - it's more of a very rough guestimate after spinning around upside-down while drinking 8 shots, with a pinch of a daft idea behind it.....maybe ever so slightly better than a finger in the air.

But not willing to start guessing about other parts of the results though....well that would just be silly!

....but what if I'm right! 8-/

FI - that is exactly the point I was hoping to make, so glad it came across....I tend to waffle.

The averages being the same is good, but it's what is under the bonnet that matters when comparing the number of releases.

So running at 67% of big movies vs 32% of smaller movies (by measure of what is above and below the average line) in July YoY. And why I doubt it would remain the same if we had the same number of releases.

But yes, things are going the right way - hopefully it will keep improving at the same rate we have seen over the last few months.

Now I'm not foolish enough to claim we are back at 2019 levels, or to claim all is back to normal, that would just be daft - because clearly we're not, we still have some way to go on that front.

But that said, 2019 is the year we should be making comparisons to, and the US BO is our best marker against that. And after reading SmallTraders claim around BO figures being back to almost 2019 levels and just not having the same quantity, well I didn't really agree with the maths of doubling a figure or halfing a figure...so I went looking at the average BO figures per movie per month (which I think is the right way to view it).

Jan - $5,048,756 (2019) vs $1,184,329 (2021)
Feb - $4,248,042 vs $946,670
Mar - $5,014,143 vs $1,774,611
Apr - $4,704,469 vs $2,403,014
May - $4,789,631 vs $2,520,521
Jun - $5,953,985 vs $4,869,434
Jul - $6,779,979 vs $6,518,723
Aug - $3,969,812 vs ??
Sep - $3,366,638 vs ??
Oct - $3,602,049 vs ??
Nov - $5,075,206 vs ??
Dec - $6,875,212 vs ??

So as you can see, the average BO figures against the number of movies released, for the last couple of months, is looking back in the same 2019 range, so ST was correct in his claim.

This is just one measure, but to be fair it is one that looks promising. It doesn't mean our revenue is back to 2019 levels, or the BO overall is back to what it was (we can all see that)....just that on average, over the last 2 months, the BO is pulling in a similar amount per movie released as it was in 2019.

2019 had a range of $3,366,638 to $6,875,212, with the lower months being Aug-Oct, so it will be interesting to see how we get on over these months.

At the end of the day though, an average is just an average - it's that total figure we want to see moving up.

To be clear, it also doesn't mean that movies are making as much as they should be - it's your big movies that pull the average up, but on the flip side of that - your smaller movies drag it down. More movies clearly mean more revenue (which is good), but would the average remain the same if we had the same number of releases as 2019, who knows, I guess it would depend on what is being released - but in my opinion - not likely, not yet.

As long as movies earned more than the current average, then we do know the average would go up, but the reverse is also true.

So far this month, 10 out of the 66 releases have been above the average, the other 56 pulled the average down, that is against 15 out of 190 for July 2019, so a better %age in 2021 above that line, but in reality all that means is that those 15 movies in 2019 had to earn way more than we are currently are to pull that average back up, and having that additional 5 (50%) big movies a month is important too.

So it's promising, but it's not the full story. I prefer the measure of average BO figures per day (over a month) vs 2019 average per day, and the monthly BO figures vs 2019 monthly average - which are both looking promising, some way to go but ar

I'm also fairly heavily invested Lloyds - got in last year at around 26p....not going to earn my millions there but it's my safety net investment at that price.

Just the UK economy/market in general, not cineworld specifically. It's usually a fairly good indicator of the state of play in the UK. It's obviously not for every occasion, common sense needs to be applied, there might be Lloyds specific news, or banking industry type news....but to get a general feeling it's usually the one I look at first.

Unfortunately I have to agree with FI's view - not sure today's rise has anything to do with Jangho (although would love to be wrong).

Only because I use Lloyds as my measuring stick, and the shape of movement on today's graph is pretty much identical to CINE, it's just the %ages are different - but given this share is a whole lot more volatile than any of my other shares, that is to be expected - bigger rises and bigger drops, but the general movement is the same. So probably more the wider market correcting itself than any big news coming.

But as I said, I do hope I'm wrong - either way there is still some way to go for CINE to correct itself in my opinion.

They may even enjoy reading, and possibly more than one book. Some children, I believe, even have the capacity to enjoy more than just a limited list of activities too. Enjoy your day!

Well it's good to know where you get your investment strategy from. Again, it's been a real pleasure.

Eddie, I believe FI was referring to your facts, the one where you were talking about the last 5 years profits...given 2019 was within those 5 years, I would suggest it is part of the same discussion you started - or is it only you that can use historic figures (although without context).

Also, I don't mind differing views at all - but it seems to me you have come on to this board not to share your views, but to infer you are smarter than the rest of us with comments like "Wow, people still think cineworld has a future" - well clever you....you have made your point, it's been great, and thanks for stopping by.

Lots of differing views as to why this could be..

Jangho selling up
MMs
Shorters
Delta
Inflation/Interest rates
Negative posts on here
Disney
Some mythical news that is yet to be released but everybody else knows about bar us

Some are clearly more believable than others, but to be honest, who knows why it's down - it is what it is. It will come good again, I'm fairly sure of that.

There are clearly other factors (debt being a major one), but we are still the 2nd biggest player out there - with US daily BO figures racking up month on month, it won't be long before we are at similar levels to what we had pre-covid..

Jan - 6.79% of 2019 daily average
Feb - 6.67% of 2019 daily average
Mar - 11.85% of 2019 daily average
Apr - 20.51% of 2019 daily average
May - 21.73% of 2019 daily average
Jun - 43.03% of 2019 daily average
July (TD) - 63.39% of 2019 daily average

There is a clear trend there and it is UP and at some rate too! So as long as that doesn't drop or level off, which with the number of big films we still have ready to go, it just isn't likely, and so far there are no indications of that either.

Disney is a bit of a worry, but it's just too soon to tell how people will behave around that in the long term - we only have one weekends figures. It's on demand, as soon as it is available you just have to click a button - customer behavior could be totally different to cinemas - they might have already made 99% of what they will make last weekend, or it might just be a drop in the ocean - we just don't know yet.

All we care about really is one thing - how long before the debt gets paid off, hopefully we will get some initial indication of that in the interim report. Pretty much everything else will take care of itself, folk will still want to watch films at the cinema, social confidence will grow stronger (although that might take time with our media) and with it more people doing what they did before - patience is the key with this one.

FI - I think when I looked at it a while ago and NHC got in around the 55p mark last year (maybe November or was it September, I can't remember), tbh I wouldn't mind if it dipped that low or maybe just under that and they decided that they have had enough and just wanted out, think we'd see a bit of a rise from that. And things have changed massively since they went short - so it could potentially work in our favour if it dipped just a little more....just a thought (and a hope).

Will be interesting to see if these numbers pan out...

'Black Widow will still lead at the box office again, despite an expected 65%-70% slide for a second weekend of $24M-$28M.'

I always preferred waiting a week or two post a big film release for cinemas to be quieter (and prey in the mean time that nobody spoils it for me), just wondering if in these times there are more of folk like me but more due to covid worries. Guess we'll see anyway.

Dragon,

To be totally honest - the more I think about it the more we just don't know. For example, I didn't take into account it's not 1 stream = 1 customer as it is with cinema tickets (bit of a basic mistake there on my part, it's a been a long day after a long and draining night - still love you England!), and we have no information that will help us work that out...

So to summarise, I think $60m is a win for Disney, probably not as big as it sounds though, but in the long term only time will tell.

I get what you are trying to say LPD..

$60m sounds great...but when you take 40% of that to account for the US share (based on what FI shared), you get $24m..

$24m / $30 (cost to stream) = 800,000 (customers)

800,000 x $9.50 (average cost per ticket in US) = $7.6m taken from US cinemas (minus popcorn etc.)

Not what I would call scientific I know, but unless we know the exact number of streamers in the US, this is about as good as it gets.

I would also add, we will never know how many of those customers would be cinema goers anyway, so it might not be the case that all 800k customers would have actually gone to the cinema.

There is a article here that goes into this too in a bit more detail...

https://variety.com/2021/digital/box-office/black-widow-disney-plus-opening-analysis-1235017115/

Just to add one more thing..

It will be interesting to see how much Disney+ add to that $60m. With Cinema, we know people will be going to watch BW over a period of several weeks time (ok it usually falls each week but the numbers usually stack up considerably), but just interested in how much that will work for Disney+, if it will be the same or if people had it on demand and that's it done, with much much smaller streaming numbers....not saying one way or the other - will just be interesting to see what happens to be honest.

Time.

OK the BW results weren't fantastic, but they really weren't bad either.

Disney+ took $60m worldwide, is this something that will continue...personally, I doubt it.

Fact is it's just not the same as sitting in a cinema, same as eating out, why bother if you have a cooker at home?? It won't last, at least not at that level, not as people get more comfortable with going out and being around other people again - will just take time (more for the scaremongering media to find something else to focus on).

We just need to remember, we are still coming out of a pandemic and people won't just all of a sudden jump back into how things were done before, some people might never go back to how things were before.....but eventually things will settle down, social confidence will pick up, and things will get back to normal. Same with the SP - it just needs time.

Just to add around the US box office..

So far in July, the US BO have averaged 22m a day, that is the same as Feb 2019 and Sept 2019. Yes the month isn't over, so not counting my chickens, but still it's a promising sign that during these pandemic times, we have hit a level last seen before joe public had even heard of a coronavirus, even if they were the quieter months of 2019.