Member Info for MoneyP1t

Sorry wrong BB

Due to the cost of gas and the weather...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/top-gun-maverick-afghanistan-tom-cruise-b1913878.html%3famp

On holiday, but thought I'd have a quick look on here while the family are asleep.

Is this good news, not really. But just as one film isn't going to make everything right and put us back at £2, one film isn't going to break us either.....do I expect a dip tomorrow, of course I do, same as I expect a rise - this is cineworld, God (and BC) only knows which way it will go.....if we see more of this then I will start to be concerned, but for now, I'm not worried at all.

Films have been delayed before (even before covid) and they will be again, it is what it is - still a strong enough slate to see us through to the end of the year IMHO.

This is also just one studio and one big film (not counting MI as that is 2022 anyway), and people seem to be missing the positive - Sony seeing a better window snapped it up straight away, they didn't follow suit - they didn't even hesitate, they jumped at the gap that Paramount left.

Right, back into holiday mode. Have a good one.

You'll certainly be getting some peace and quiet from me for the next week FI - I'm away with the family as soon as it hits 17:00 today and will be enjoying some work/screen/Cine free time.

PW - I agree, it is much easier to read a ramping post than a deramping post, and I'm all for positivity - just not wild claims of 'a takeover is coming!' and the like - which to be honest although it would be nice, we would be some of the last to know about it anyway.

The problem is that for new investors, these boards are one of the first places they will look, and there are a lot of younger investors these days too. So with FOMO they might jump in based on some of the comments here, and they are the ones that will lose patience, expecting a quick big win which is unlikely to happen overnight. Personally I wouldn't want to be the person that caused somebody new to investing to jump in with their hard earned cash (and maybe more than they could really afford) at 90p+ for it to drop to 60p+ based on silly predictions and wild suggestions of what is going to happen tomorrow or next week....for all we know this could tank from where it is now to 40p - I very much doubt it, but I thought the days on 60p-70p were behind us too.

Damn it - Monday is a Bank Holiday - I've been rumbled!

Speak or yourself FI - £2 opening on Monday, this is your last chance at these prices, I wouldn't want to be out over the weekend (again), RNS at 15:02 today, and we will have a takeover offer by next Tuesday, 100% guaranteed from a private source....or was that sauce (I can't remember if it was Heinze that told me)....oh yeah and HOLD!

AllKap, I'm only looking at US (and Canada) boxoffice, that is where most of our business is.

August seems to be a fairly average month most years, September is usually one of the quieter months....but I suspect this year it will do well (relatively speaking).

BO figures for August aren't looking too bad, I was expecting lower figures this month compared to last month anyway....last month we had some real biggies kicking around - F9, BW, JC etc.

This month has been an interesting one as Free Guy has done really well, and comparing it in the US to Suicide Squad (which was available on HBO Max) $60m vs $50m respectively - where SS should have been the much bigger film and I might be wrong but even has an extra week on FG.

Think August will end somewhere in the $410m-$450m range....which at the lower end of that range would be a 30% drop on last month's BO figures, but for context in 2019 August saw a drop of 33% on July.

Will be interesting to see how the new Marvel film does without streaming, although not sure I have seen it advertised much to be honest, and I think they could have done more with the trailer.

Anyway, good times ahead.

Farewell iTrader. I know you are a young lad (so patience isn't something that comes naturally), but with all the chopping and changing both long and short, and for your first dabble with investing you have done well to pretty much break even.

Best of luck with any future investments.

I wouldn't be surprised to see subscriptions drop further for the likes of Disney+, Netflix and Amazon - simply because during the lockdowns outgoings were much lower for the majority of people (working from home so not paying to commute, for lunches, nowhere to go, couldn't socialise etc.), so yeah I'm sure people were more than happy to pay for three (or more) subscriptions per month (something like an extra £21+ per month for the three of them I believe - but that is on top of their cable/sky bill and any other subscriptions like gaming and food), if for nothing else just to stop the boredom during what was a very dull period.

But now people are wanting to get out and do things again, have a social life again, and people will be starting to head back to the office more (maybe not to the same levels, but still at a cost) - so it will become a matter of where can they make the cuts to their regular outgoings which will enable them to have that better social life and also get to work....then it's bye bye Netflix and/or Amazon and/or Disney+ - and where will people go to watch the latest movies (without paying a regular fee), while being social at the same time - that is right, the cinema.

Time is all it will take, lots of things falling into line right now..

Massive films on the way, Day-and-Date releases probably coming to an end due to lost revenue (piracy and password sharing) - then add the lower number of subscribers due to increased outgoings because there are other things to do again and they have a smaller audience to offer their films via streaming to too.

So I'm patiently waiting....and quite happy with my investment.

Really encouraging to see lots of posts again from friends taking their families to the cinema in the last week.....not really thought about how may of those types of posts I saw before covid, but it did give me some confidence that things are getting back to normal.

I appreciate the sentiment behind the post ST - and I certainly agree the SP is quite low right now (and as you say, it may unfortunately drop even further for a short while, depending on how the 12th goes). Although, and please don't take this as a criticism - I just don't think it is as easy as 61% of the revenue for July 2021 (vs 2019 average) should mean 61% of the 2019 share price - for a number of reasons, but one of the main ones being Cineworld breaks even at 60% of the 2019 levels (might be wrong but pretty sure it's around that figure from memory) - breaking even is great news for where we are, but it isn't the same as making money, as we were in 2019 - profit is key, and we won't be there yet.

Those were also US BO figures - which is a good indication of the industry as a whole (especially if most of your business is there), but it doesn't tell us how much of that actually went to Cineworld either - and although it's a lesser %age (25% I think, which is still a fair chunk - again just going from my memory) - the other countries Cineworld are situated in will either drag that up or down (but hopefully up).

That all said - if the true figure for Cineworld is around that 60% mark for July (or better, even higher) and they can get something along those lines into the H1 results - *in July we hit the break even point after seeing month on month increases in customer demand since reopening, so the projection for the rest of the year is.....* - I think that in itself would be seen as very positive news, and would be received very well by the market.

I do hope for a quick return to the illusive £1, and I am cautiously optimistic (or maybe it's just hope) it will happen before year end - but if not then 2022 will be a great year.

I don't think anybody can argue the convenience angle from a customer point of view, for some convenience will trump the experience, and for others it won't.

The problem is that the industry isn't setup for it - otherwise SJ (and a number of others thinking about doing the same) wouldn't be suing Disney.

And there is a still a massive question mark around what the long term impact it will have on revenue (people would have purchased DVD or streamed it after watching it at the cinema anyway), then you have the more important shorter term revenue problems (how many people in the household are watching it, piracy, and password sharing). Password sharing might end up being an even bigger issue than piracy IMO, as it doesn't have the same dirty feeling, so surely you can't be doing anything wrong - and what will they do then, limit the number of devices you can use even more?? Then people ask themselves is the subscription value for money, if my kids can't sit down and watch something at the same time as I am in a different room, or even the same room on a different device. Then you have the number of subscription services out there - not everybody can afford Netflix, Disney, Amazon etc. You also have the infrastructure problem (which tbf is becoming a lesser problem, but still a problem is some parts) of do they have the bandwidth to watch it.

Still lots of question marks around streaming, and convenience is only one angle.

I am more than certain the "family friendly" Disney Co. are worried about being sued - or anything else that paints them in a bad light. And I am not talking about being sued, I am talking about them protecting their interests (be that money or their art on the big screen) before the point of it needing to go to court and sue anybody - these are new times, I don't think exclusivity would have been needed to be written in black and white pre-pandemic for a marvel film or any other big budget movie.

I would also argue around the line "Maybe they had enough of paying huge wages out." - so what keep more of the profits to themselves - so if your work decided to dock your pay and keep more money for themselves that would be fine? The movies business isn't the same as a supermarket with the actors being the cashiers, the stars are all part of the product and they know it and their worth (in terms of the amount of money they bring into these studios).

And again, the whole "don't like it tough" didn't work out so well for them in the writers strikes.

Be in no doubt, the studios will be thinking this could be the next writers strike - and one would assume that would be something they would very much want to avoid.

I think you might also be missing just how important the SJ case is against Disney. Even if she loses, what do you think will happen - stars, directors, producers and all the other behind the scenes guys that work their arses off and get paid based on box office figures, and want to see their movies on the big screen - they will just demand that cinema exclusivity is put into their contracts for any new movies - I would be massively surprised if this isn't already starting to happen.

Cinema isn't dead - the industry is just adapting to protect itself.

US BO Figures YTD...

Jan - 65,138,132 (7% of 2019 av. / 2,101,230 av. per day)
Feb - 57,854,846 (-11% Decrease on Jan / 6% of 2019 monthly av. / 2,066,245 av. per day )
Mar - 113,731,667 (97% Increase on Feb / 12% of 2019 monthly av. / 3,668,763 av. per day)
Apr - 190,440,471 (67% Increase on Mar / 20% of 2019 monthly av. / 6,348,016 av. per day)
May - 208,485,867 ( 9% Increase on Apr / 22% of 2019 monthly av. / 6,725,351 av. per day)
Jun - 399,686,452 (92% Increase on May / 42% of 2019 monthly av. / 13,322,882 av. per day)
Jul - 575,249,173 (44% Increase on Jun / 61% of 2019 monthly av. / 18,556,425 av. per day)

Not a bad month at all, could it have been better, yes. Just imagine if Disney hadn't streamed BW or JC, this may have been much closer to 2019 levels.

But still it is moving in the right direction, and I like to think Disney will have learned something from their experiment - they can't control piracy (they and others have tried for decades and have failed - but they must see that they have handed them everything they have always wanted; an easily copied quality version of their film on the day of release, then add password sharing on to that, far too much lost revenue). Then their stars/directors/producers not being overly thrilled with it (directors saying their films were made for the big screen, SJ suing them and others may follow..), and I would like to think they will have a rethink - even if it is just for their bigger releases.

The figures above should give a small indication of where we (and the wider industry) were for the first 6 months of the year, so be under no illusion - the interim results next week aren't going to paint a pretty picture numbers wise, but in my opinion (with the figures growing month on month) - the final 6 months of the year are going to be a lot prettier - and if they can get that across in the results this time, with some decent modelling and a plan to pay of the debt, then the results could still be very positive. They have their work cut out for them.....but if they play their cards right, we could be on a steady increase from the 12th through to the end of the year - but to be honest...who knows which way it will go, time will tell - but either way I believe the LTHs will receive their rewards in the end - just need a little patience. GLA

Being accepted for a loan when you need one is obviously good because it means the creditor trusts you can pay it back - needing a loan in the first place isn't. It really is that simple.

FI I agree, I think we are currently somewhere in between the "base case scenario" and the "severe but plausible downside scenario" - but to be honest, looking at those scenarios, I think they were always being a tad optimistic to expect 60% of the 2019 levels from May - I can't really remember now (was a while ago, so I might be totally wrong), but I don't think we were even allowing full capacity in the US in May - or maybe we did part way through, but we certainly didn't have a full line up of movies out (we still don't).

It is likely that this month we are going to hit that 60% figure, which in the "Severe but plausible downside scenario" was forecast for the month of August, so a month earlier, although, one hopes that it will continue to rise from there and not hold at 75% for the rest of 2021. I don't believe it will plateau at 75% , but that is just my gut feeling based on the rate it has been increasing month on month - it hasn't shown signs of slowing as yet.

There is a lot of money to be gained by being invested here (IMO), it will just take some patience.