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That is the point I was trying to make above FI.

Deferring a payment in itself isn't an issue, but the the extent (of time and amounts) was different to what they have done previously, and which I presume is why their lawyer was trying to make out it was (covid) by showing emails about washing your hands in January - when in fact our guy showed they weren't really concerned until later in March....that is all together what showed it was out of the ordinary course.

I didn't catch it all yesterday either, but I got the feeling he was building up to a point around the budgets and not being allowed to pay anything out that isn't on the budget for projects, or change lines within the budget - did he get to the point of this - or are we still waiting on that to drop? If not then I expect him to circle back to this and try catch the CFO off-guard.

Also, anybody else a little gutted there is no court today? (Pretty sad I know).

I don't think deferring payments is the problem, I think that is standard business practice for multiple businesses. The problem is to the extent that they did and the reasons they did at the time. Which is why our guy spent so much time trying to underline that they weren't concerned about covid in Jan, Feb and early March - so they were in fact doing something different (not following the ordinary course) in what were normal times as far as they were concerned.

I don't want to speak for Cruis, but pretty certain he/she doesn't mean to be critical of the NHS (or was mistakenly), but the measure which the government has used to record covid deaths. Which in all honesty there is no perfect way to record. Although personally I think the above the historic average would be better, but still far from perfect.

Regarding the case, it is very interesting how the two sides have at times presented the same information but in different ways. I thought their lawyers did a good job yesterday, they presented the information in a way that said 'well what else could you do', it all sounded so reasonable, but our guy today made a very good point 'other businesses weren't restricted by a contract that said you can't do XYZ without doing ABC' (ABC being their terminology) and also all but dismissed their reason for delaying payments so early in 2020 - still I'm no lawyer (so don't really understand the legality) but I think we did well today in terms of argument - but I guess it's not always who argues the best, but who can prove their argument legally, and that is for the judge to decide impartially.....which none of us are. Still fingers crossed.

Hi Popeye, good thank you - hope you are well. I live in Yorkshire - all heatwaves are mini heatwaves, but yes first time I have seen the sun in days, so very much enjoying it.

I personally don't see an issue with hitting 90% - US BO revenue has increased (on a 4 week average basis) from 11% in Week 21 to 66% in Week 36 - that is a 55% difference in the 'vs 2019 levels' over a 15 week period, there are 16 weeks left in the year - so I'm fairly confident (no more lockdowns permitting) we'll get there.

Popeye, last 4 weeks US BO 2019 vs 2021 week for week..

Week 33 60%
Week 34 56%
Week 35 58%
Week 36 86%

Twice over the 60% base case scenario target, and twice under, but still very much in that ballpark. In total over those 4 weeks it averaged 66% of the same period 2019 levels - so we are there. It might dip back into that 50% range over the next couple of weeks, but after that I think those 60% levels will be in the rear view mirror.

Just to add I think there were quite a few rises yesterday and today...including cineplex who had a better rise than us.....so we had all better hope it's not the court case because to me that would say more investors were impressed with their opening statement.

But in all honesty I doubt it has anything to do with it, as Bonkers said, it was just day one - long way to go yet and a lot of evidence and witnesses to be seen. Hopefully once it is put to bed, and again hopefully in our favour - we'll see a nice rise....but this is Cineworld, anything can happen.

Dragon to be honest between work and kids I didn't get to watch a great deal of it myself, but caught some of it. From the bits I did see, both sides seemed to have reasonable and logical arguments (but of course they would, these will be some top lawyers) - problem is I'm not a lawyer - so not sure how those arguments/interpretations will pan out legally. It was pretty interesting though, in a watching snooker kind of way.

Just watched the trailer, and got that nostalgic feeling (which is good as people pay for nostalgia) - personally I can't wait for this one (even if 3 wasn't great). Seems to have the Internet making theories already about Morpheus too (with Fishbourne missing from the cast), which will all add to the suspense, very good marketing imo.

I do have to say - I really have appreciated the posts from Trendz over the past could of days (and Popeyes contribution today too).

He/She has asked the difficult questions and for the most part responses have been measured and not completely full of nonsense and/or insults.....which is the first time I can remember in a while that somebody has brought up debt or questioned the market cap without it getting into a name calling spat between two waring sides..

He/She has made me reassess my investment again, double checking some of my thinking, and it really has reaffirmed my belief that CINE will get there, it's just a matter of time.

So thank you Trendz (and Popeye). If my (our) comments haven't won you over, no problem I wish you both luck with your investments. As I said before, everybody is entitled to an opinion, and there is nothing wrong with disagreeing.

Popeye - the company is still recovering (I never said anything different)...you might see those figures as poor, but I see them on a trajectory that will have us back to 2019 levels by the end of the year (if not before) - different views of the same information - although the total for the last 16 weeks is 44% of 2019 levels (don't make the mistake of averaging a %age that is lazy maths).

It is also worth pointing out that so far in H2 (10 weeks) the US BO has made 1,043,523,379 vs 1,160,146,712 for the whole of H1 - that is 90% of what it took 6 months to make in just 10 weeks, not sure how you get a negative from that but you are of course entitled to your opinion.

Is it right now where we need it to be - no, but are all the signs there that it will be - yes.

Just because we are talking about revenue...and our best indicator of that being the US BO..

This is a 4 week running average for the US BO in 2021 vs the same 4 week running average of 2019..

Date: 2021 %age vs 2019
21-May: 11%
28-May: 21%
04-Jun: 27%
11-Jun: 33% (AQ2)
18-Jun: 37%
25-Jun: 36% (F9)
02-Jul: 36%
09-Jul: 43% (BW)
16-Jul: 46%
23-Jul: 46%
30-Jul: 49% (JC)
06-Aug: 42% (SS)
13-Aug: 49%
20-Aug: 53%
27-Aug: 55%
03-Sep: 66% (Shang-Chi)

Coming along quite nicely, only once does it dip >1% the following week - and that is 4 weeks after BW.

Hi Popeye - I 100% agree it was a valid question, even if I'm not 100% sure of the motives for asking it, but I prefer to give benefit of the doubt, and I tried my best to answer it as a genuine concern.

In regards to your own - I believe HNS has answered your point. But I think another important thing is that it's quite hard to make comparisons to 2019 right now, as so much has changed, it's not just about getting back to 2019 levels of revenue (although that is of course the most important thing) but since then (as Mountainous and Trendz himself pointed out) - no dividends being paid, running costs are lower, concessions are up etc. - these are other factors that will have a material impact on the overall profitability and the ability to pay that debt off.

Agree that it wasn't the best time for them to acquire Regal, that was unfortunate timing - but with more cinemas, come more screens, comes more revenue - so it's not all bad either.

It's going to be interesting, the second weekend for the first Marvel film to be released during covid not be on Disney+, I imagine there will be lots of eyes on those box office figures this weekend over at Disney.

It's looking very good at the minute for Shang-Chi, it's taken 6 days to get to $105,906,440 during what is usually a much quieter period for cinema, vs 7 days for Black Window at $105,761,671 - which IMHO should have been the much bigger film.

But this weekend is going to contribute a lot towards the total that it comes out with at the end of it's 45 day exclusive window.....so fingers crossed we can show Disney why cinema is the best place for their films, and so they make the right decision for (The?) Eternals!

Not sure what happened with my point numbering there - I clearly cannot multitask. But if it helps to make it clearer..

Today 10:22
So lets look at this point by point..

1. So my estimates are that cineworld has about $325m cash. Being generous the cash burn is around $35m a month.
They had $452.5m at the end of June, with a cash burn of $45m per month at that point - this would leave them with $362.5m to the end of Aug.

2. So the company has 10 months cash.
Closer to 8 based on the figures at the time - although that is only if all things had remained the same as they were reported on up until the end of June, which might not be the case, and even if it has, I'm confident we will have moved from recovering to recovered (in terms of revenue and cash generation) within 8 months.

3. Chuck in the £8b debt.
Pretty sure we covered this yesterday, and in a mostly well behaved fashion - I refer you to that post.

4. Factor in a recovering business.
Key word there is recovering, so we agree. Given the improving box office figures - revenues will be higher now than they were during the H1 reporting period, where the highest US box office takings were in June for just shy of $400m (with previous months much lower) - the US BO hasn't finished a month below $400m in H2, and although August wasn't our best month - there are still positives to take from it, and we have much bigger months ahead in Q4.

5. Remove all possibility of profit being distributed to shareholders for the next 5 years.
Pretty sure we'll get by - especially as most serious investors wouldn't want them paying one right now. Although not sure where 5 years comes from, did I miss an announcement?

6. How can a $1b valuation be realistic?
Because given time, Cineworld have the assets, the means, and the product to make a full recovery - this is a company that brought in nearly $300m in revenue from (for the most part) 1.5-2 months of being fully open during a world wide pandemic. As the results stated, they are also anticipating positive cash flow in Q4, and targeting 2022 for cash generation and deleveraging.

Hope that helps.

So lets look at this point by point..

1. So my estimates are that cineworld has about $325m cash. Being generous the cash burn is around $35m a month.
They had $452.5m at the end of June, with a cash burn of $45m per month at that point - this would leave them with $362.5m to the end of Aug.

3. So the company has 10 months cash.
Closer to 8 based on the figures at the time - although that is only if all things had remained the same as they were reported on up until the end of June, which might not be the case, and even if it has, I'm confident we will have moved from recovering to recovered (in terms of revenue and cash generation) within 8 months.

Chuck in the £8b debt.
Pretty sure we covered this yesterday, and in a mostly well behaved fashion - I refer you to that post.

Factor in a recovering business.
Key word there is recovering, so we agree. Given the improving box office figures - revenues will be higher now than they were during the H1 reporting period, where the highest US box office takings were in June for just shy of $400m (with previous months much lower) - the US BO hasn't finished a month below $400m in H2, and although August wasn't our best month - there are still positives to take from it, and we have much bigger months ahead in Q4.

Remove all possibility of profit being distributed to shareholders for the next 5 years.
Pretty sure we'll get by - especially as most serious investors wouldn't want them paying one right now. Although not sure where 5 years comes from, did I miss an announcement?

How can a $1b valuation be realistic?
Because given time, Cineworld have the assets, the means, and the product to make a full recovery - this is a company that brought in nearly $300m in revenue from (for the most part) 1.5-2 months of being fully open during a world wide pandemic. As the results stated, they are also anticipating positive cash flow in Q4, and targeting 2022 for cash generation and deleveraging.

Hope that helps.

Pretty sure Boris has learnt his lesson from trying to make any firm commitments around lockdowns, personally I think it's just politics and Boris playing it safe - but to be fair, we (including Boris) don't know what is around the corner - if there is a worse variant of it (like Delta ended up being from Alpha) then why would you commit to no lockdowns? It doesn't mean there will be a worse variant, it just means there is a possibility that there could be.

Well done all, a conversation about the debt without insults flying around! Progress.

....and obviously Bond.

Good question - I, like many on here (and more than likely Mookie), are hoping for option 2 - although maybe not all the profits, given they will have an agreement to pay their debts over time (if they can overpay then all the better) - and I'm sure somebody will correct me if I'm wrong - they start paying it at different stages.

I think the signs are there that revenue will continue to increase - it's just a question of how fast. And it's a positive that they have got operating costs down too, which will always help.

Due to cost of gas and weather..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238