Member Info for MoneyP1t

Sorry other than the debt - there is that.....but I include that as part of the bums on seats bit, as it becomes manageable if we can get somewhere close to pre-covid levels at the BO.

As our biggest shorter (standing at 2.42%) I thought I would have a look at the Low/High range for each day that NHC changed their short position, just to give me a rough idea of what they are up against..

We know that it turned out that they shot themselves in the foot by reducing their position at a higher price when they did back in March, because what that does in a short scenario is basically the opposite of when we buy more at an higher price - our break even point would go up, and theirs basically goes down.

So before March, their break even point was between 55.03p and 61.20p (we can work all this out because we know know the %age that they opened on each day, we know the number of shares in issue, and the SP will have been between the High / Low ranges on each of the given days they opened/increased/decreased their positions)....but because they reduced their position in March and at the price range they reduced it, that range is now between 45.36p and 54.20p, and remember - that is just to break even! (appreciate this doesn't include fees - I only wanted a general idea).

So far the only good decision NHC appear to have made is a very small short of 0.03% on the 13th April - which is insignificant against the rest of their position, so here is to hoping that they will be forced to close their position following the court case *IF* it goes our way, which will only prove to boost the SP even more.

That said - I haven't looked at the other shorters, but I understand they have made better decisions than NHC and some opened before the pandemic, but I would assume they too would reduce their positions to some degree, because after the court case - not sure there is anything other than getting volumes back to pre-covid levels (which is also improving) holding us back.

So to summarise - Pawelbak clearly works for NHC wanting the price to hit 45p! ;-)

Not sure, I'm hoping the judge will give us an indication before the end of play.

And just to add, having unrealistic expectations just gives the likes of Pawelbak ammunition when it doesn't pan out. Being clear with realistic expectations means that anything better than that gives us that ammunition.

Setting expectations isn't negative, it's just stating the facts so folks with their expectations (*cough* Bond *cough*) don't get carried away.

I would probably add to what you said FI in that December is also likely to be a slow burner, with the bigger films being released at the back end of the month, and if that will give us enough time to cumulate as much as we can....hope so, releases at that time have done well in the past.

I think there is a slight difference in October and November, not sure how much it will add though, probably not huge amounts but it all adds up - the films from last month will still be adding to the total for this month, we hardly had any films in September to do the same for October, but might make a difference.

Good news though is some of that cinema exclusivity kicks in from January, which will only put us into a better position for the start of next year too.

No ruling today, it's the just final day of closing statements. So the first part was evidence and witnesses, this part (these last three days) is putting all that into a legal argument based on the agreement and each sides interpretations of that agreement, and for the judge to ask any questions. The judge then takes those arguments, evidence and witness statements away to make her judgement based on the agreement. Not really sure on timescales for that though, but I doubt it will be a quick turnaround.

Brilliant way to look at it. I genuinely hope that is how the judge sees this too. Only thing I would add is the 4th covenant specifically states 'in accordance with past practice' which is what Mr Steep was trying g to hammer home, so not in accordance with the wider industry.

Shorts reducing is good news, but let's not celebrate too soon - it is only 0.22% reduction, and I don't want to speak for FI, but polygon might just be reducing their risk, similar to how a LTH might sell some shares to get some/all of their initial investment back....their financial risk is reduced, because you have pocketed part or all of your initial investment, leaving only/mostly/partly profit invested, which is smart investing - no matter which way you do it.

For those interested in where the US BO currently is (because that is where most of our business is), see the link below.

https://snipboard.io/rjXM3T.jpg

For those seeing this for the first time, it shows where the US Box Office is on a week vs week basis (2021 vs 2019) and a 4 week average of the same, with 100% being the 2019 level.

Good start to the quarter, no single peak followed by a big drop for the first time this year, holding steady at 73-75% of the 2019 BO for the last 4 weeks.

I'm not sure we have the full figures in yet from Box Office Mojo, as Dune is only showing what it made at the weekends so far, so it might increase slightly once those figures are updated.

Expecting another peak once the figures are in following Eternals (end of next week), but with Ghostbusters and Clifford (which I understand is a big thing in the US), hopefully the drop won't be as big as we have seen following other Marvel releases.

35.2% for me - way more than I originally started out with (think it was around 10% to begin with), but I topped up along the way - don't think I'll be adding anymore though, I think I'm more than exposed enough on this one.

It's a long term hold for me, I genuinely think we could all do really well here (otherwise I wouldn't be invested) - so will be holding on to what I have, but I will be looking elsewhere as and when to try and bring that %age (exposure) down here.

I did think about buying a few here to day trade with at one point too, just to see how I got on, but I just don't think I'm made for day trading so chickened out.

I moved to iWeb this year, £100 set up fee and then £5 per trade there after, as Pig said, it's very basic but it does the job, my only criticism is that there isn't an app for it.

Not at all Mountainous - as Bombdog said, thanks for the figures.

Agree it is interesting, I can't remember how high it went to recently (google tells me 82.52p but think it was higher from memory)....but based on that figure, they were sitting at £57m profit and still didn't sell - so agree, they obviously see more money to be made here.

Sorry my bad the other way around..

£99,002,462.52 / 189,334,287 = 52.29p

Hi Mountainous, my way was as below:

1. You take the number of shares they started with (45,573,418), and either add or subtract - based on where you have put increased or decreased - that then gives you the final number of shares 189,334,287 held..

2. You then you do the same (adding / subtracting) for how much they paid / received at each transaction (again based on increase / decrease) - this gives you the total cost to them £99,002,462.52.

Then it's as simple as 189,334,287 / £99,002,462.52 = 52.29p

Agree Bombdog, I come out with the same figure..

Shares Held: 189,334,287
Average Price: 0.5229
Cost: £99,002,462.52
Worth (at current Price): £118,314,995.95
Gain: £19,312,533.42

You're probably right Sammy. Just trying to wrap my head around sitting on a board and REPEATEDLY posting something like:

'this is 100% without a doubt going to fly, it just broke the XX resistance level, next level XX......I know it's going to fly but still I'm not going to buy in'.

Which is basically what they are doing, they are just saying it will drop instead of rise. I mean try and imagine BC's comments, but with him not being willing to invest regardless of the insane level of ramping.

Isn't it strange, when you are so convinced a SP is going to move down by c25%, or better go bust...instead of opening a short position to actually make money from your own genius - these people just post on this board, and get nothing for their trouble.

These same people are happy to recommend putting money elsewhere too, but again - according to these same folk, the SP will drop by AT LEAST 25% here with a massive amount of certainty!!

So let's just take a £140k (for example pawlbak) - shorting it at these prices will return you £37k - and that is if it only goes down to 46p, if it goes lower you get more - will RR give you that money anytime soon, surely the smart move is to cash out and then open a short here?? Or do you not have the confidence in your own "research"?

As a LTH here I have the confidence in my research - so I back that up with my money....what I don't do is sit on here saying this is going to go up at some stage, but then not put my money on it to make money (what we are here for)......so why is it these people say this is going to go down, but don't put their money on it to make money?

Weird right?

Box Office Mojo is behind in certain countries like the UK. But as FI pointed out, given c70% of our business is in North America, it makes sense to mainly focus on that area and for the purposes of what I am interested in, it does the job. That isn't to say dismiss the other countries, but it is by far the biggest chunk of our revenue, and so most important.

I do also disagree with looking at online bookings, but not for the same reason - I disagree with it because you can't look at them all, so you will never have the full wider picture, just an idea of how a small number of cinemas are doing, if the recent court case taught us anything it is just how varied the revenue is from site to site. It does have it's merits - you can get an idea of pre-bookings, but still not a full picture, and you can obviously focus in Cineworld only - which you can't do with Box Office Mojo.

Box Office Mojo does give you a wider view of the industry though - and with a fair degree of accuracy for that wider picture, and certainly more accurate that a handful of random cinemas in my opinion.

But to be fair, Box Office Mojo isn't without it's negatives (as LPD points out for other countries it can be behind), but for where c70% of our business is - it's pretty spot on and the best tool we have, and it obviously isn't split by cinema chain.

But I say each to their own, the above is my personal view. And maybe both pictures add something to the wider understanding of performance for those reading these posts.

I don't disagree with you LPD - but the fact is the board has been cluttered by his rubbish for the last week or two.

Rather than ignore (which I doubt ]will work for somebody like that), I think I'll just reply with - 'open a short then' - and I encourage everybody else to do the same.

Plus I have a bit of ear ache today - which might be making me a little cranky and less tolerable.

oh, and now enter the tumbleweed - going to guess he won't even have the spine to reply..

LPD - I would ignore it but I'm interested to see if he has the guts to short it, given how confident he is, especially at this price.

It's all well and good having an opinion and constantly sharing that opinion (although he states it more as fact), but backing that opinion up with his own money (like the rest of us have that it will go up at some point) - I might take him a pinch more seriously. But I know he doesn't have the guts to do that, no spine to put his money on it.

I know we wouldn't know for sure if he did or not anyway even if he said he did - but I'm going to guess he won't even have the spine to lie about shorting it, in fear of being caught wrong, and then if/when it bounces, being laughed off the board never to be seen again. - like so many others.

So in summary - he doesn't have the spine to back up his own self proclaimed brilliance.