Member Info for mole_man99

There are two convertible bonds maturing soon. Will convert to shares.
€2bn on March 31 2021 and €2bn on March 31 2022. Approx 5% dilution each time if SP around base conversion price of £1.31.

VOD could buy back shares to cancel the dilution.

ishares IEBB for example is ETF with holdings in bbb - bb investment and sub-investment bonds. It holds some VOD. 5 yr returns of 3.25% are typical and low compared to historical returns of stocks with div reinvested (maybe not VOD itself though, smiley). Priced in Euro though so small returns could get wiped out by FX movements.

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/272249/ishares-euro-corporate-bond-bbb-bb-ucits-etf

Go to holdings tab then scroll down to download detailed holdings excel to see them all. VOD's in there but only a small percent.

Wise old market advice would have a portion of investors portfolio in bonds as they usually have inverse relationship to stocks. Not always though.

Bonds are really for big institutions and pension funds looking to park multi-millions and get a long term return. There will be bond etf's you could look at, though I am not aware of any for the UK. Plenty in the USA.
Fixed income investing generally gives lower returns, though supposedly safer.
The price of the bond itself can go up and down during it's life, so the capital value of the bond etf can fluctuate. If bank interest rates rise, the bonds are less attractive at the original price, so drop in value so that the coupon can effectively rise, and visa versa.
Clear as mud now?

Dan, Bondholders are ahead of common in terms of security. In the event of a company being wound up the order of payments is
Bondholders
Preferred shareholders
Common

Below is link to list of all bonds VOD currently has in issue. Yes it is important how much interest they pay. It is a cash outgoing that has to be dealt with. VOD make pains to point out their credit rating will not be negatively impacted by this deal, because if it is, the amount of interest they pay on the next lot of bonds they sell will go up.

'Coupon' on the bond is interest, as you see a coupon column in the table
https://investors.vodafone.com/debt-investors/bonds-outstanding-eu-and-us

VOD really need to stop buying stuff, but the Towers CEO in waiting has said he'll go on a spending spree, diluting holders with share issues, or maybe more debt by the back door for VOD holders.
As VOD will retain the majority of the towers company, anything it does winds up back on the books. They are ruining the point of it before it has even happened.
Reuters
Vantage Towers, which owns 68,000 masts across nine European countries, is eyeing a spring listing in Frankfurt that would arm CEO Vivek Badrinath with the firepower to pay for takeovers with its own shares.
https://www.reuters.com/article/vodafone-towers-idUSKBN28N0B2

Isn't that the plot from a Big Bang episode?

daniel, reply to a few posts down, I sold all my VOD shares years ago, having learnt my lesson. The div is no replacement for safety of principle.
Most retail investors just buy in for the nice safe div without reading the financials first. It's not a guaranteed return for your pension, due to risks of capital depreciation, the div not covered, and the need to borrow to pay the div.

VOD is a graveyard of investors, like me in the past, who collected some div and lost X2 on the capital. Eventually you figure it out. The div is not safe, and yes the cash is better off elsewhere. Long Term.
You do have a tricky period to deal with if the SP goes up beyond the price you cashed out at, but don't worry, it's VOD, it will come down, and hopefully your other investment didn't.

On 17th March it reached a low of 92.76 intraday. An extraordinary event floor.
It's all about the profits now. If they can follow up the most recent HY with another set of improving profit figures, the city may find some love for VOD again.
If they go back to loosing money, £1 is not out the question.

Not sure having tariffs on croissants is going to effect how much people use a mobile. Any no-brexit dip should be bought, if you believe in VOD's recovery.
Any brexit dip in any share you like should be bought. No-deal worries are a red herring and always have been. With hefty tarrifs on BMW's, we may even get a motor industry again.
Dust off those blue prints for the Austin Allegro...

Frankfurth will give it a solid stable valuation and environment. Shame they chose it over London though. London will shine again, from apporx Jan 2nd...

Not sure about the free shares. I think most assume VOD is listing 100% of the Vantage shares, but they plan to list just a portion, keeping most of the shares in VOD. The hope is the valuation for the towers company will feed into the valuation of VOD for the portion it retains.

This is why it won't raise €20bn cash to pay down debt, or whatever the towers company value is. €4bn is the current target I can find.

Maybe shareholders get a special div, or one free share, which will cost you more in fees to sell than it's value. I had this when BHP spun off South 32. The £5 sat there for a year. It cost me £7.50 to sell it.

IPO's can change alot in value as D-Day comes. Just watching Doordash on NYSE today. Auction has taken value from $40bn to $70bn and it still hasn't opened. They have some mopeds delivering food. That is how wild NYSE can be. The power of dumb money, or 'robinhooders' as they know it over there.

Monster inventory build for WTI crude. 15.5m barrel. Just spooked the market a bit.

The cheap train is departing the station. £15 by end 21.

The same well meaning locals will live in the Clontibret area. Just pointing out why some may be selling, which was the original question.

If there is such a thing, it's just made up on the internet.

It can't be taken over due to all the debt. VOD shareholders would have to accept 50% off, so why bother.

Sellers are probably just taking the chance to leave. There is a long road ahead.

It won't be plain sailing as Dalradian are finding out.
https://www.facebook.com/Greencastle-Peoples-Office-2300820750144271/

The Dalradian proposed mine is 45km away and the planning enq has received over 40000 objections.

My bad. The Fintel site is talking about the VOD ADR's having 10% ini ownership.

Yahoo stats give VOD:l 53.5% ini ownership. It's proving hard to get an accurate figure.

Oil futures have moved to backwardation. The Contango was wiped out at record speed.

Backwardation means storing oil is uneconomic. It may result in a flood of stored supplies coming to the market.

VOD has 10.5% institutional ownership. Compare this to BP with 80.5%. (source Fintel website)

Such high RI ownership could lead to substantial selling after a rise, as theorised below.

High ini ownership has not helped the BP price much though, once the fundamentals fell out the bottom of the oil market. However, as things improve, it could make selling out of BP less likely as it recovers, so it gets to keep it's gains.

Was in for continuous run of 12 years. Sold out when things started falling apart and bought it all back in an average of the 500's.
I really liked owning WKP for the period, and the future will be no different. The investment community has now decided the pandemic will pass and is starting to value things at recovery prices, airlines, cruise lines etc.
WKP NAV will be around £10 coming out of this event.
Get them while you can.
Post Brexit, and London will shine and London property will rise with it. WKP do a darn good job of increasing the value of their properties, while covering the div with a good business model.
Go WKP, our little secret.