Member Info for mole_man99

My scepticism also comes from the clutch of failed minnows I got into, JV or going it alone. Went through a period 10 years back of chasing these dreams and they all lost. IT was a time when you were supposed to find stuff in the ground then get bought by a major. That stopped happening, so some tried to go it alone. Goodbye 'investment'.

AAZ does bring a decent small scale track record to the party, I will concede. I would rather buy onto AAZ though and get the gain that way. Maybe after the war thing settles down.

Anyway, have fun with it. No harm if it's a controlled percent of your portfolio, and well done prof. You pulled it off. Never thought you would get round to it.

MAjwandco, I am not in. It was a purchase I made years ago and after about 6 months realised it was a dead donkey and got out with about 30% loss I think. The prof split off the diamonds side, it used to be conroy diamonds and gold, and they just did resource upgrades followed by placing to pay their not insignificant salaries. It just made me angry so over the years I checked in to let others know the game.

The JV is a game changer potentially I admit, but I fear it will be the usual prof mad excitement, followed by years of declining SP. If you get a pop on some news, take some profits at least. As CGNR holders you'll only get 45% of what the JV makes. Within your 45%, AAZ will get their extra shares in CGNR, so a double dilution of sorts.

If AAZ do first exploration part they get 25%, and can walk away and keep the 25%.

AAZ plan to spend €4m prospecting. Dalradian have spent $190m already in Ireland and still no mine. They now have protesters camping on the land too. The JV will need more money and time than the heads of terms suggest I think. More placings, more dilution.

The diamonds prospect is in Finland. Karelian, KAR on the LSE. Another one with years of resource upgrades and placings, but no mine.

From memory, when Lloyds had their RI in the crash the sp fell below RI price after it concluded. Anything can happen. It will be sentiment driven at the time.
Holders need to hope there is a bit more positivity in the world when it happens.

I guess the deal will bring in fresh speculators, but long term holders did not see virtually no gains. Holders from back in 2012 have lost 95%.
Jolly good luck to the new ones coming in, but don't expect anything to happen quickly. The prof himself is saying in the press that 4 years is optimistic for a mine opening. 2030 was mentioned in one article I found.
Plenty time to bring in resource upgrades and raise more capital, issuing more shares.
AAZ get to keep the joint venture share if they decide to walk away. If a new partner comes in, it will get diluted even more.
Read all the fine print and consider the track record here is all I ask. There must be better ways to get into gold if that's your bag.

The hype on electric and hydrogen has only just begun really. Just today Tesla announced buying German battery supplier for BMW. They'll be licencing out their low cost battery tech, which was a plan revealed on battery day, so lower cost EV Beemers are coming.
Lots of trading to be done on oil for years, I just think the general direction is down, if only because governments are making it a legal requirement. Investors beware, long term that is.

I agree about EV's, unfortunately we petrol heads lost the battle and they are forcing the things to work. You gotta be tuned into the US stocks market to really get the feel.
By the time this pandemic truly passes, Tesla will be just months away from releasing their $25,000 car with 400 mile range.
They are solving restrictions on creating enough batteries too.
First hydrogen train ran in UK this week.
Airbus future fleet is aimed at Hydrogen and electric.
The writing is on the wall for peak oil demand I think. The wider market know it.

Nickel is very unbundant, and Tesla have now developed new battery techniques based on nickel, no cobalt. They are going into mining the stuff themselves to ensure it is carbon neutral. New techniques see wasted solidified using CO2 extracted from the atmosphere.
California have banned sales of ICE vehicles by 2035. Others will follow. It's taking time, but the shift is unstoppable now.
I hate EV's by the way. Love my V8. As an investor though, you need to beware not to become King Canute.

We will need oil, just not as much of it. Just 10% less than peak demand and it' causing chaos. The industry will need to reset itself for a lower demand future. Lower may just be 10% less, but nobody wants to be the one to reduce to the new level, so the market will have to price the weakest out permanently.
Perhaps I am full of bull, but very relaxed that my once oil dominated portfolio is now diversified away from fossil fuel, and commodities in general.

Switch to a biotech gamble. Good advice...
It's no wonder every share site leads with '78% of retail investors lose money with us'.

Look beynd the RI. What is it that RR are doing that will stop the years of losses? Your strategy is sound, but RR is maybe not the one to be using as a cornerstone of your long term investing.

VOD Sept 21 futures contract is trading at £0.946. Gives an idea where the market thinks it's heading.

Not sure the market is that concerned with current benefit of hedges. Looking way beyond into the future, and it's getting grimmer for oil on every timescale.

I shall never be in. Plenty others move like this so I don't need to carry the risk here.
Enjoy the ride and remember to take profits.

No shady goings on. Demand is in the dumps and traders marked down oil 5% short shrift.
Focus on the demand picture. Hopefully for holders TLW can survive intact for a year, then you can pick up the pieces.

>>One more week and im out if no update is given! How can they tweet so much then radio silence !

It's the Conroy way. The next time you hear from them will be the big resource upgrade. This will then be followed by the placing to raise funds and dilute holders.

Do Conroy actually own anything anyway? Land, licences, equipment?

>>What sent oil south?
The demand picture. It's all about demand. Supply will adjust up and down, but you need to focus on demand.
Another big clue today. Largest US refiner Marathon started big job cuts due to persistent low global demand for fuels.

Demand is unlikely to return to levels high enough to require supply growth until well into 2021. Oil price is down here all year.

As VOD have never made a profit on average across the years, the divi in theory is not covered at all.

Worth also remembering that the €42bn debt is net debt. They actually borrow €61.3bn, upon which interest must be paid. Would take 12.2 years to pay it off with free cash flow, but of course that is not really free cashflow as it excludes 5g spectrum costs. In reality, it can't ever be paid off.

You are investing in debt management if you choose to be in VOD.

Private equity can never be interested in a buyout as it has so much debt. Private equity buys things to load it with debt, which it can't do with VOD as it is already maxed out.

It's completely normal, but Conroy is not a normal company. You have to of been here for the last 20 years to appreciate the subtlety. Well ii boards, then here.
The prof is a clever guy, it just never seems to benefit the shareholders.
Perhaps I am wrong, and good luck to those believing the blarney, but I am firmly out. I just suggest that people keep holdings to less than 1% of their portfolio. Don't go all-in expecting the big one.

She's too much of a lumbering debt mountain now to see upside like that without a radical turnaround.

Slift, I may not sound like it, but I am an oil man at heart who won't be switching to electric any time soon. I sense a permanent change though. The oil industry is losing the battle of resistance against the switch to alternatives. Managed decline will be the watchword from here on. Will take years/decades though and plenty money to be made for survivors in the transition. Long term investors may want to start moving their portfolio balance away from oil stocks to others.
One of the battery day announcements from Tesla was a $25,000 car coming in 3 years, made possible by big changes in battery design. The market was disappointed as it is 3 years away, but to oil companies the impact is practically now.