Member Info for mole_man99

As far as I can make out, the big announcement was a new logo, and raising another $3.5bn of debt to pay the tax bill. Just another perenial drag on VOD.

Market sentiment is against VOD now. The decline looks like a general rerate to the downside. It will fall when market falls, but not recover as market recovers.
I think the debt overhang is seen as too large. To service the debt will require what little profits they regularly make. It leaves little for investors. The dividend is paid by borrowing money. The bonds are one notch away from junk, which will push up interest rate as it falls. There is alot against it long term, so the market has just lost interest .

Daniel, another thing to watch out is the credit rating. Currently they are BBB. There is one step down to BBB- and then it is junk bonds. This would effect the interest they have to pay on new bonds issued. No suggestion of a downgrade at present. Last one was 2019.

Hornby have been upsetting all their retail accounts recently. Someone at Rails probably said something they shouldn't to the wrong person.

Daniel, total borrowings (April 2020) are €74,781m. Interest paid out was €2,284m, so 3% average.

Bonds are the lions share. Bonds mature between 2020 and 2059 (2019: 2020 and 2056) and have interest rates between 0.0% and 7.875% (2019: 0.0% and 7.875%)

They do of course have cash and other investments and get interest from those, so the net debt is then €42,168m and the net interest paid/received is (€1,160m), so 2.7% average.

They added €15.1bn to net debt last year.

crude cratering again

Without ground breaking news to stop the trend, it's going to find a permanent home sub £1. The market just does not want VOD. Too much debt and more needed to pay the divi.
Massive cost cutting might help. They can't raise the price of the product. No moat.

Nothing has changed. The institutions don't like the dodgy majority owner. It will always be held down. Currently seasoned with a bit of concern over virus spiking in Ukraine probably.
If you are long holder, you just have to get used to the worry. That is why the market wants a spectacular divi rate, to compensate the risk of holding. It can't let the SP rise, or the divi rate will decline. It's like a high risk junk bond.

*113.8 that is. 133 would be nice.

It is sitting exactly on the resistance floor. If it falls below and closes under 133.8, then the answer to how low can she go is alot lower. I think the vultures will dive in if it gets under a pound, so that may be the next support.
It needs to bounce to 120p convincingly to show it is breaking the downward steps.

VOD chart is creating a descending triangle with 113.80 as a floor. Each time it bounces up, the highs get lower, making a triangle shape. It needs to bounce hard off 113.80, to above 120 to break the cycle.
What the triangle tells you is that each time it bounces off the 113.8 low, the buyers are less and less willing to step in and support it, with lower and lower high spots. Eventually this exhausts the buyers and the sellers win. If it falls through 113p, you can probably think it will be a long time till you see your 128p, and make your decisions on that basis.

Owning PMO was a miserable experience I got out of several years ago. Rambling mess. I thought TLW may be interesting with the crash values, but I still can't bring myself to get invloved in the complexities and risk.
Oh how I miss Dragon Oil. One asset, constant rising production and no debt.

And what a journey. Only about 80% down on my EMED 'investment', based on hot tip, before I knew to ignore such things.
Keep my small holding for fun and to remind me not to bother.

Sadly the wave of optimism has not arrived. Trumps big announcement was old news really. Not sure VOD is seen as any sort of takeover target. There are cheaper ways to buy debt.

Actually there may be a little wave of optimism coming. Trump updating on cure progress. Any spike up on VOD I would take as a chance to get out, not confirmation that the future is bright. Rotate into other things.

Trump announcing some sort of progress on Coro cure at 22:30. Coupled to the storms, could be a bit of a wave of optimism coming for oil in general.

Watch it live if you like a laugh
https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/

Natural gas up because oil production down, so the gas glut has subsided. As long as Nat Gas keeps rising, the market knows the demand is not sufficient for oilers to increase production, and throw off more nat gas in the process which would suppress nat gas prices.
IN USA there were so many shalers producing so much nat gas as a by-product, they would of been happy to give it away for free. Now rigs are at record low, the gas over-supply is diminishing.
Rising nat gas is a canary in the coal mine for low oil demand.

The London market is a bit of an embarrassment now. Stuck in the mud oldey worldy companies and some dodgy overseas miners. I have some UK based companies in the pension, mostly property, but other than that, do all my trading in US. Easier, more liquid and no duty on each purchase. The masses of additional capital from the FED and overseas do inflate the prices of APPL TSLA GOOGL etc etc. I don't suppose America minds.
We could do with a reset in London. Attract fresh capital in. Will help strengthen the pound and give us post brexit relevance in the world.
I am sure our Government are working diligently on this, once Bojo gets back from camping.
It's Sunday. We can go a bit off topic.

I imagine they are silent as they spend their time fighting fires. The risk to shareholders would be a debt for equity swap. Not a relaxing one to hold for sure.

The first phase 3 trial is not due to complete till mid-21. I am re-thinking oil. It won't recover till next year.

Qantas have said international routes won't reopen till mid 21. Jet fuel demand still 45% down in US. Even motoring is still 15% down. It's going to drag on. Sorry.