Member Info for mole_man99

Margins great till it goes the other way. Trader on IB went from $77,000 to minus $9m trading oil when it went negative.

Take care.

It is much better to miss a month or two rent from a good customer and then have them back as soon as lockdown lifted.

A permanent work from home world is a dream being touted around the media right now. Reality is that quality business that WKP house will be craving to get back to group working, but they will need more space due to gaps that must be left between workplaces.
Office space could see a supply squeeze. Barclays will go to the wall if they think they can run a top bank with workers at home in pyjamas.

Many passenger planes are just shuttling cargo now. Medical supplies, PPE etc. Some may have to keep flying as the industry struggles for parking.

The worlds gone mad.

VOD can only pay a divi by borrowing the money to do it. It should really be cancelled, and they should instead try to make sensible profits again.

The retained earnings are shocking.

Analysts keep mentioning $10 oil. It is probably going there.

Yes, it's a storage issue and exclusively effects WTI, but I think it is also a harbinger for the rest of the industry. Storage issues really can lead to a total collapse in price. The whole industry, not just OPEC, needs to come together on production levels to save itself.

I can't see pubs being able to function normally for a long time. Who would want to go in if there is any type of restriction. It's supposed to be fun.

Just imagine the chaos if stores actually max out. Some fields have to keep pumping. They would have to leak it into the ground/sea?

Traders may have to take oil to zero to bring producers to their senses. Stop mucking about and make a mega cut.

I get the hedged bit, but if storage is full, and the world is still overproducing, who is going to buy Tullow's product.

Governments could pay people and airlines to drive and fly about to burn it up.

That seems to be happening to oilers on the pre-market in USA. A lukewarm few percent up.

Key to watch now I guess is how much inventories fill up as the taps remain full open until the deal starts, which is not till May? Saudis can fill alot of vlcc's between now and then.

Without a vaccine, 70% herd immunity required, so at current rate of daily infection, about 25 years.

It's much more than that. RAF budget £5m a day to keep a big ship on the ground. Living organisms that need fluids flowing through them, or the startup bill is immense, as Boeing are finding with all those idle MAX jets.

Urban myth which is probably fact. It is not possible to park all the worlds planes on the ground at the same time. They have to keep some in the air.

Would an Opec deal to cut that raises the POO lead to US drillers raising production again?

Opec delays meeting till Thursday. Still lots of politics to play out.

...starts again 23:00 GMT Sunday. OH the agony, waiting to see how it reacts to any, if any, weekend developments

I think America likes it's oil and not having to rely on outsiders so much for energy needs. It's why Trump is talking the price up when not so long ago he was badgering the Saudis to pump and get the price down.

Many Shalers are OK on production at the low price, but they can't drill new wells at this level. First two graphs in this recent report are interesting. WTI at $23 to $36 needed for producing wells, but $46 to $52 to drill a new one.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2020/2001.aspx#tab-questions

To my simple maths, the only way they have paid a divi last few years is to borrow all the money to pay it.

As long as they can keep borrowing more and more, they can pay it out in a divi.

The tower sale may provide some funds to pay it one year without borrowing more. Is that still going on?

Have a look at the balance sheet. Too much debt now I feel. VOD may not join in with any general market rise post Coro.