Member Info for mole_man99

I am probably overly pessimistic about demand, hopefully. Doesn't help that my day trading day is entirely focused on US stocks, and it was grim on the markets today.
Except for SPI, a tiny solar panel company who said they are entering EV space. At one point their stock was up 4000%. Yes, 3 zeros. Electric gets investors frothy, oil does not. Not sure that will ever change now. Covid is probably the pivot point we'll look back on as peak interest in oil.
Peak interest in oil focused stocks that is.

I read the stats differently. Stockpiles can decline because refineries are making less, due to low demand and low expected demand. Refinery utlisation was down compared to week before.
Traditionally stocks, particularly of gasoline, are low at this point in the year, and refineries take the chance to rebuild over the winter ready for summer. More driving more flights. This year there is no need to rebuild the stocks.
Products supplied was down on the week before.
Jet fuel, the margin maker for refineries, still stuck at 45% down on normal. Pressure will be on to keep oil prices low so refineries can continue to operate.

EIA numbers show gasoline demand continues to be soft and declined a bit from last week, in USA at least. Still no oompf in the oil market.

Work from home if you can = less fuel demand. Maybe it's just 1% less demand, but 1% is the difference between boom and bust in oil markets.
It's not panic stations, but keep a watch on how things develop in the states. If demand softens there, the drop could be significant.

There is no limit. Will always be people seduced by the name. Some don't even seem to know the cars are owned by BMW.
There was a RR subsidiary in Pershore making specialist gears. They shut it and sent the jobs to France. France could not do the work so the Pershore site was never sold off and they started to bring some work back, but by then the talent had moved on.
RR is good at bad decisions which is why I got out a few years back and put it on my list of 'safe' investment names never to be touched.
RR
BP
VOD
GLEN

WTI is trading down 0.5%. The Hurricane is all known to the market, so you can see the market is not concerned about short term supply disruption at the moment.
Not in TLW, but I am in and out of oil itself so watch intently. Hurricanes no effect, Vaccine news and fast rising Gasoline futures are what you want to look for. Front month RBOB has risen 1.5% today as there may be some short term supply issue in refineries are hit, but they have plenty crude in store to catch up when the wind dies down, so crude is declining today.
Market open in US will give the real picture. All eyes on it. Happy to be proved wrong and will ride any crude up wave, but it will soon fall back without sentiment shifting news on future demand.

Hurricanes will have little effect on the price of WTI and unlikely to move Brent. Maybe if everything was shut for a month. It may help the price of gasoline futures RBOB if refineries shut. RBOB has been crashing hard, but crude is a plenty. OXY only have one rig running in the Permian. They only need Dwayne and Cleetus to go out and fire up a second and they will double production. Crude can fill any supply gap extremely easily. Too easily, that is the problem.

>>Total div 33c so far this year approx 25p. Incredible return. Just need the share price to reflect reality.

If the market raises the SP the return won't be attractive anymore. They have to suppress the SP as due to dodgy owner always lurking, a high dividend yield is the only compensation for the risk of holding.

Always think of it as a high risk junk bond, and you may not get burned.

From experience of owning, The owner/Ukraine/russia/hryvnia will always bite in the end.

Bloomberg article circulating pointing out this has outshone US giants like Tesla and Amazon. Always tempting and perhaps sensible to take profits after a run-up, but I think I'll just see what the next 5 years brings.
Warhammer the blockbuster movie can't be far off. There was one 10 years ago, but they could go big time now. Endless Marvel stuff has paved the way since then.

Waaagh!

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-11/games-workshop-space-warriors-trump-tesla-in-stock-market-race

The pound has weakened 1.2% today, which is the additional decline you see in the ADR's. Afternoon trading in US may be choppy though. The market was quite optimistic AM but it fell off for tech type shares.

My interpretation of the balance sheet may be aggressive, but I think you need to be when a company is in a situation like this.

Even with hedges, in this environment the costs of extracting value from producing assets is close or higher than revenue they produce, so currently have little potential to increase balance sheet equity as they are used up.

Selling off an asset at a given price is different and the buyer will pay what they are prepared to pay, but the upcoming $500m sale is already on the balance sheet as an asset. The sale will convert it from asset held for sale into cash, but won't move the bottom line of the balance sheet, which is now negative.

I personally find this a concern when valuing the company considering a safe entry point. I don't think there is a one based on balance sheet movements. Just a gamble that things improve soon.

They have also snubbed london in favour of Frankfurth for listing the Vantage Towers. Perhaps London traders are miffed with them, driving SP down.

The valuation of €20bn relies on high multiples of earnings (€750m) which they may not get. It could list for €10bn.

Newbie, without a battle plan that excites the market, I don't see it going to £2 at all. Was meaning if they come out fighting with a credible plan to turn this into the cash monster it could/should be, then that might be enough to rerate the shares.

I don't really see that plan. There is something about $1bn cost reduction, but it's not enough to excite the market.

It's all known so you have to assume it is already baked into SP if it goes ahead. Only a portion will go to pay down debt. Presumably assets coming out of VOD will lead to corresponding drop in NAV and maybe SP. Not sure how VOD plan to compensate existing shareholders for this.

They are set to reveal more at interims.

Holders and those thinking to get in because the price is low should read the balance sheet.

Now has negative assets of -$138.2m. The '$500m RNS' won't help as the property is already on the books as an asset held for sale (note 13).

In accounting terms, the company is basically worthless. Market Makers will be aware.

Littered with autocorrect errors, sorry.
*Dividend not even covered
*Vittorio had project spring

Skids list is what I would want to see, and maybe the markets.
In it’s present form it is hard to see the markets bidding up the price much. The doc is not even coveeed. With some blockbuster cash generation and the hint of good revenue growth, even I can see this going back to £2.
Vitoria has project spring concluding in 2016 where they invested to boost the network. The markets at least knew what the debt was for. They need something similar to focus the groups on earnings.

Not all bonds convert. You would have to go through their long list of VOD bond prospectuses to see which can be converted. Usually it is the bond holder who can decide, so dilution is spread out and may never happen.

VOD did issue 'Mandadory Convertible Bonds' totaling £3.4bn and these automatically convert on a given date. 'The bonds are being issued in two tranches of £1.72bn each, maturing and mandatorily converting into ordinary shares of Vodafone in March 2021 and March 2022, respectively. '

It was part of bond program to pay for Liberty Global assets.

Cheer up all. You could own Tesla. What a day on the Q.

Daniel, I would think if VOD makes marginal or negative profits and continue to pay out a div, it must raise more debt and bonds seem to be their chosen way.

There are 2 mandatory convertible bonds of £3.4bn total that will convert to stock in March 2021 and March 2022. Perhaps this is also weighing on the SP. Either stakeholders get diluted or spend their cash reserves buying back shares.