Member Info for mogo

just to add to your excellent post on gold you mention "1932" in passing- but gold had been pegged at $35/oz. by US Pres. FDR on 3/4/33 and holding gold by US citizens made illegal etc.

I always loved my few "oscillator" shares which went nicely between two distinct levels far enough apart to make money and with a small spread.Look at the CNE charts.Barring accidents-Greenland ?-there are two levels one to buy at just above 270p and to sell at 295p.Giving a rough profit of about 10% before costs so a reasonable amount put in should make a bit.

CNE is at least a far more solid reliable asset than almost any AIM miner.In fact there might be T/O interest and maybe one day resumption of dividends.Alas I hoped BG might allow CNE to be like VOD,a boring utility type share with regular reliable dividend income from CI,and few risks but he preferred to chase the rainbow in Greenland.What is left though is still quite attractive though a pity Greenland is still on the agenda.

$2m a month lol.

need to look from the other point of view-my quote earlier there is a long term Chinese strategy for Africa...it might be 10-25 years...or a year,or when..the Chinese won't mind about time factors,they are in a long game..". So the AIM miners want things 5 minutes ago while the "dealmakers" not just the Chinese see no haste at all,in fact they have their own problems-banks,costs,trade levels etc. Neither of us have any answer to that.The Chinese etc. might easily pick up distressed assets at rockbottom rates-most of AIM miners - yes not AFF yet,they have about 4-5 years "life" financed at say $2/month.

yes agree with your-"they will expect a bargain"..

I cannot see how I differ from your august selves lol.I said-"China will be pulling in horns"-they are.But I added-"of course they still want resources,they might take up some not needed for a while if they are attractive enough".Do you note the nickel price is now just a fraction below $7/lb. and leaves AFE's model for production based on about $10/lb. rather cast adrift.Yes of course earlier brokers' reports said they might produce as low as about $4.50/lb. but marginally.Again I remember their heap leach results indicated a faster and better yield than most competitors e.g. ENK for example then. It is the getting to production barrier that only majors can now surmount.Yes the Chinese are good at moving on distressed assets at low prices and might any time table a rock bottom offer here.Of course the II's might reject it.Probably would.But what then ? That would transfer us to the very long game having rejected a Chinese offer they might not return in a hurry,there being many many AIM miners now in a similar soup.Again sorry for my brutal phraseology but I try to be realistic and do conduct a lot of research before I say anything.

certainly goldminers are getting into the zone of instability now,where it will be unprofitable to mine.Costs are over $1000/oz. often,while gold itself is getting in the $1400/oz. area maybe lower.Costs are due to the rises in oil,plant and labour etc.Which also comprise the barriers to production for small non-gold miners.AFE has paid lip service to doing it themselves.I am back where I was a year ago-I no longer believe that can be feasible.It has to be a major doing the needful after a deal/takeover.I discussed that a long while ago.Majors' unit costs are far lower,since they already have plant,labour etc.just need to redeploy these.Of course transport though they'd have ore trucks too.Rail and power lines are too expensive,only at national level can these be attempted.China will be pulling in horns-see the recent news.Of course they still want resources,they might take up some not needed for a long while if they are attractive enough.

it is really alarming thinking of how bank standing orders might not be covered in event of a bank closure and the consequences of that nationally if they are not..imagine council tax,utility bills etc.unpaid in mass by most of the population. Anyway yes we must look first to ourselves.Yes we might be accused of going off the deep end too early but there's no doubt our banks are already halfway up the creek. Yes agree I must have emergency cash and food available from now on. Yes some of our shares look no-hopers now but who knows in future ? I suppose if you've stumped up to pay for shares a few years ago and they are in the drawer there's no harm in waiting providing all your other needs can be met long term. Certainly some foregn currency like the NOK which already has shown strength by appreciating about 45% in 10 years vs. the pound is good provided you can store it safely. There are some other good ideas at Market Oracle I'm looking at. Last week's gold hit was undoubtedly manipulation,the costs of many gold miners are now too close to the price of gold for comforable profits,not by accident either..GL.

-for £1 you got in 2004 13 NOK,in 2007 12 NOK,in 2011 9.75 NOK and now about 8.78 NOK ! NOK equals Norwegian Kroner. so over 45% devaluation..

In this situation,where life changing amounts of our cash are being destroyed we must look at it all strategically.Away from day to day changes to our shares-these questions- 1. how do we protect our bank accounts ? 2. is AIM a place to invest ? 3. how much loss can we take for the prospect of gain ? I think all of this is tied up with seeing that "asset allocation pyramids" are the way forward for prudent investing-see the net -plenty on that.Why ? a. protecting the majority of capital in safer places.Where ? See Market Oracle. You don't need to believe that but at least it is a considered strategy,otherwise- what ? b. by all means have some "risk capital" in AIM but limit the amounts.Your "asset pyramid" should have these riskier things at the "top" so therefore only allowed in smaller amounts for prudence sake. Averaging down to try to fight the market ? All OK in a rising market,in fact in 2003-7 I remember doing that successfully.However not recently,it has just been a recipe for more loss on my part.GL.

researched that a bit and I find "travel fx" give the best GBP/NOK rates in the market,better than the P/O...

Yes I am quite familiar with Scandinavia and these days get some good pointers from the discussions on asset allocation etc. from Market Oracle.Iceland too has made quite a good recovery.Smaller countries in northern Europe again.Meanwhile the supposed richer ones like Japan,UK,France etc, go on blundering with their economies.Massive QE is destroying cash balances,so we do need to get investments in inflation-proofed assets.AIM especially the miners has been a disaster area for several years.Chasing the rainbow hasn't worked.I'm not going to discuss my allocations here,but I've been forced to rethink after some quite large losses.But still alive due to using asset allocation pyramids-see that on the web.Again I won't preach,those here and elsewhere must decide their own directions.Gold,silver,the dollar,the euro and the pound.All subjects for discussion.Will some of these grow or die ? Certainly over at Market Oracle you'll get plenty material about whether your bank accounts are safe given a possible future Cyprus-esque robbery in the UK.A nice picture you see over there at M/O of a bank but a notice in front says -"crime scene do not cross"..

with BZM.Share right down,large iron ore assets,Chinese involvement,port and railway development not available up to now. A poster over there says-buy now it will rise 40-fold,but I don't know when.Ignore the obvious exaggeration,a similar situation. One might say what do we care about that,but there is a Chinese strategy for Africa of which both Guinea and Cameroon are long term parts.So it might be 10-25 years ? Or a year,or when ? The Chinese won't mind about time factors,they are in the long game.

Yes once upon a time there were AIM miners whose shareholders were duped by wild talk of these companies about £billions of profits.All there was really were some holes in the ground.But many of the mining execs. liked getting large salaries and world travel.They knew the shareholders would fund everything.There was no real risk,each time money was required because production was too expensive and years away,they just had placings or SEDAs.The shareholders got diluted.Not many sold though as they hoped their money would be multiplied 10 or more times once a recovery happened.But it didn't.Some stupid ones tried to buck the market by averaging down until they needed-and still do-over 1000% rises to break even.The whole thing is the biggest disaster since the banks meltdown in 2008.It isn't finished yet,sometime a lot of AIM miners will be bankrupt,many shareholders will make huge losses unless they get out sometime.Of course some of the better run ones will survive.A tragedy in the making.Go to many of the boards here to see many sides to this-greed,delusion,apathy,hopelessness and anger.

this is savage reading but the AFE II's in here are just as much trapped as the shareholders who are staying.Though only till a. a deal of some kind, or b. they give up.The only two possible end-results.The sneaking suspicion is the do nothing majors-see how many deals there have been almost zilch- for their own reasons might wait to pick up distressed assets for almost nothing.

we've seen this already here-the possibly- who knows- large copper assets in Zambia were sold off for a low price to an unknown company Elephant who probably will do nothing much.In fact they seem to be a kind of cash shell.AFE if they exist in future might be similarly placed.Yes of course AFE could sell out totally for an as seen then you get it price.Like taking on a hand of cards with some cards face down.The new owners might take drillings as sufficient evidence for a global sum.Some majors are looking for reserves not to be used for many years.I used to disbelieve here often they even intended to go for mining.Far easier just to sell it all off.I've no idea what the price might be but evading startup costs would be the trick for most shareholders here.

This IS the CNE thread after all lol.Be fair.Without Greenland or Greenpiece it isn't the same ?

If you'd gone into RRR or maybe AFE you might be finished by now.AGQ might be bad but it isn't as much of a loss proportionately as these two. Many in AFE are down by about 7 to 1, in AGQ some are down about 5 to 1 but in RRR some are down up to 16 to 1. And foolishly a large number there tried to fight it by constantly averaging down too.Since I sold on a large loss 2 months ago RRR has more or less halved. the importance of keeping an asset allocation pyramid is seen..GL.

in another life a few years ago I'd have invested in ASC all the cash I was to lose in this life in AIM miners lol!