Member Info for mogo

my intention here was not to downbeat investors just to attempt to say things as they are at present.I retain confidence here.GL.

yes it seems as if Mr Market is determined to push this nearer a balance with the cash pile which would be just above 50p-even lower than last December when there was no appreciable T/O or deal interest.This is the way AIM is being valued these days.I noticed on iii a ref. from Edison that Amara Gold an explorer was getting its' gold in the ground valued at $11.75/oz. or so but the industry average was about $125/oz.. With above-surface gold of course being in the $1600/oz. range lol.So not just for gold,assets below ground are valued effectively at near zero.The barriers to production include plant,labour,infrastructure,investment till real market value is achieved,until this hurdle is got over the market is refusing to upvalue assets and resources.In yesterdays' FT News was a report from Anglo American saying assumed values in the mining industry have been over-estimated.A report last week in Kitco said 45-55% of gold mining costs are labour.No doubt this is true for iron ore too.Yes Glencore,POSCO,IMIC and others are interested in the Cameroon iron ore belt,we will see..GL.

China won't likely now allow Hanlong to reach this deal,their exec is arrested and will be disgraced,probably end up being degraded to an ordinary functionary or in prison. If China is interested further,state combines will take it up.The port is coming next year,the Cameroon govt. wants to buy up strips of land for the rail route by this summer.Yes big delays obviously.Glencore and POSCO are now players in addition to IMIC and whoever in China backs them. mike- if you're really sick of this you might sell and go elsewhere to make some money outside AIM, there are plenty of opportunities in shares now,then you have the option to return with far cheaper AFF shares later.Yes of course biting the bullet,taking big losses but that as longfell says is the joy of AIM.Otherwise for you, it's just digging in for the longer term,putting up with these setbacks here. AFF might now go towards 50p where the cash pile is roughly balanced ? This has been a very blunt post,sorry,hopefully it might be better than that. GL.

I was thinking while writing my post-thanks for reply-about a certain very large quarry I know which is run by a company you'd never hear about.The 'dozers run around spirally stripping off the stuff,it's a stone/ aggregate quarry. The place is often mostly deserted,you need very few staff,a few drivers,a gate-man etc.Maybe a water pump operator plus an engineer.These places can be run quite easily.Much of the Ntem ore seems near surface.We will soon know more about that.GL.

I accept the other part of your post-a possible decline in Chinese iron ore demand,however you need to read the new Chinese President's speech on his trip to Tanzania yesterday-they do have $billions to spend in Africa,etc.

To avoid excessive fears,let's write off(only for now)- 1. all except Ntem 2. the railway. Now I glanced at the Ntem and was encouraged a lot-again other better informed may come in and I find- "encouraging drill results include..18m @ 47.5% Fe from surface;125m @ 38.3% from surface; 98m @ 38.3% from surface; 64m @39.2% from surface;62m @37.1% from surface.So from 8 results 5 are "from surface" the other 3 were at depths from" 20m,26m and 48m from surface". Now depths like those are accessible by spirally digging a huge concave hole using 'dozers.And very few workers.You'll need power,go on with the quote "potential to use the 216mw power station due to be commissioned by the state power company in March 2013"-which is now! Further on "assessing potential for road haulage to port as a low capex optionAnd we know how near theNtem is to the new port opeing next year-say two hours by slow truck does the journey! I have no idea if the cash pile will cover it,but companies on the verge of production may float loans using that production as security.So there is our "plan B" and my post was not assuming anything from POSCO..GL mike.

Yes realistically that bad situation is a runner.The majors can always do nothing or little.Of course even they need to upgrade their sources of supply from time to time,but presumably they are hit by poor bank lending like all companies are,plus increased costs of ore extraction,especially involving power and fuels.Remember AFF do still have a cheaper option to get some production out of Ntem using easy road transport links over 50 miles/km not sure which to the new port defo.coming in 2014.If the ore is quite good and near the surface,a scrape up and load on truck approach might be used.The quarries I've seen locally seem not to have very high-costing methods.Just need to hire trucks,get labour-it's not very labour intensive.The several far better informed here than me might add their thoughts whether this might be feasible. "any port in a storm".AFF might need to shift tactics from a passive approach waiting for others to an active self help method.The ace in the hole is still the AFF cash pile which allows them to wait though with fairly low cash burn meantime if they decide not to try the active approach,but we would need to use a lot of patience in that case. Remember there's still POSCO.At least now..

sold it now lol.GL.

15 times so far the 5 day and 20 day have crossed or re-crossed each other fairly flatly today! Which makes decision-making almost impossibe,that us why for a buy signal both of these plus the SP need to be travelling Upwards!

at these levels I'm only getting a reward/risk ratio of about less than 10% so it is hardly worth it for me.Also with a smallish stake the rewards aren't going to be big anytime,I didn't have the cash spare enough.At a max. of just over 50p where it reached last week,might be more attractive.Pity this isn't ISAable so we can get in/out rapidly,yes I know many ignore the 30 day b/b thing but I don't in the non-ISA account.So if I sell I'm out a month.Also we have these stamp duty fees to pay here till April 5th might be best holding here till at least then ? Makes it easier to make bits of profit.Still overall a"arrghh" though !

My own fault,slipped up there,I see now a 5 day screen I missed at the weekend showed OMI's 20 day slipped below the 5 day-my sell signal -at midday last Friday.I was quite busy then,could have got 47.50p,which shows my system works,yes you don't get the full profits but it's quite safe.This morning another drop as expected but my broker cannot sell my shares at 41p unless I go through a market maker,so I decided to just wait,after all EK is in the same position- unless he sold-he might have done.No news visible anywhere on OMI that I can see.After such a rise, a fall was inevitable,might need to hang in there till another buy signal where the 5 goes over the 20 day again happens.Bit frustrated but pleased my system works,I find often these days brokers gum up the works when anything happens.It might show panic merchants are blocking it .Yes it is never easy making money these days in fact the trick is not to lose it though I'd "only" have gained about £200 in any case there.Arrrghh!

Not bad really provided you forget about longer term targets which are far bigger than these.There was a Golden Cross in December when the 50 day crossed the 200 day.Though this position is weakening as the 50 day comes back down.Even at this rate a death cross-the 50 day crossing below the 200 day-shouldn't appear for up to 2 months.Volume is far lower than Dec. to Feb,MACD is flatlining but relative strength at only 30% is oversold.There is strong support between October to Dec. in the 60p area.A buy might be considered soon therefore but no hurry.

Note the word "crucial" in that...GL.

look over at Bellzone BXM now only 12p.An interesting parallel.They have their agreement with the Chinese and the Guinea govt. to take up production etc.and help with development.But no railway for the iron ore(yet).I don't think these projects are fully valued in a mining bear market till your railway gets off the ground.

on the Scotsman website-fears it might grossly undervalue CNE.

The 5 day moving average is at 42p,the 20 only at 35.5p.The SP could probably drop a bit below 40p a short while without making the 5 day stop climbing.So this is still a Hold till/if that happens.

re low valuations,for a few years people including top analysts have racked themselves trying to answer that,the most common replies are- 1. High present cost of raising finance.Banks even countries now going bust.Govts. stash cash to banks who store it in their vaults.Risk is never tackled.Try going into a bank on Monday,ask for a loan for a new business as an example lol. 2.High costs of energy etc. cutting into profits for producers.High entry costs for plant,labour,power,transport for overhead fixed costs for new producers.Inflation pressures. 3. Just the fact it is a mining bear market.It is because it is lol. Pick any of the above and a few more for your reasons,mike. GL.

A report today that CI India might take over CNE!

As I expected-see earlier posts,a cut today.Even if its going up it can't be in a straght line.Shortgae of hard news from the company and high relative strength.My 40p stop loss was about right though I took it off today before I went out lol.Need to watch this closely on Monday in case falls continue.

Certainly an impressive show,being able to go on fairly level so far at over 80% relative strength.Yahoo says 50.5p reached early though it fell to a low of 47p. at 9.a.m. I'd still want some hard news soon to back EK's useful interest.It must try for a golden cross but the 50 day moving average is still behind the 200.The MACD is still great. There is a bit of resistance at 50p from October,then some more at 70p to 80p.After that a strong one at 180p !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GL.