Member Info for mogo

Marconi-been there lol! I learned too,avoid averaging down,do hold shares you believe in IF your research agrees,I am prepared to sell positions though when shares no longer impress.

10.93%,LRL up 42% now.

no,no,no

your choice,I do my best here.

compare AFF to FTO,FTO has sold gas assets to China for what will be 10p on the SP which is about 10p too.Though FTO has a small dividend,they are left with some iron ore in Albania but AFF has richer iron ore assets and just slightly less value on the SP than FTO has-about 50p on a 66p SP.

Thanks m8. Re:my earlier post about effects of compound interest on loans and "lack of financial moat to the market" which must be destroying many AIM miners now-I wonder how many of these other companies are borrowing money ? Early stage producers suffer the worst costs-high infrastructure costs while production profits low.The stage AFF are at should be one of the best times in the life of a miner where bids are awaited.At least no dilutions here,I've exited several AIM miners recently for that reason.It becomes a cash sink.

MML has among the lowest industry gold extraction costs about $250/oz. for example.

Buffett always refused to invest in miner-s maybe he knew local mines which folded and the huge unemployment in the 30's who knows ? Anyway he talked about good companies having "a moat to the market".I believe the cash pile is part of AFF's "moat" protecting from dangers.Just think about a "normal these days" for AIM companies borrowing -a 10% loan for $1000 for 5 years...Here my maths will let me down so I'll copy off the "Maths is Fun" site in my own words for (c) copyright - compound interest is involved which makes this far worse in the real world>>>year 0- $1000 loaned- loan at end $1100>> year 1 loan at start $1100 loan at end $1210>> year 2 loan at start $1210 loan at end $1331>> year 3 loan at start $1331 loan at end $1454.10>> year 4 loan at start $1454.10 loan at end $1610.51>> year 5 pay final total of $1610.51.Note we end at year 5 since we began at year 0. This mike is the horrifying fate for up to 1/3 of AIM miners in the Shares mag. list I referred to.Not including AFF.And these are our competitors..

No,the post was factual, from the past.Whether charts predict the future I've no idea,news effects do not figure on charts of course,I included a few things about that "news potential" there too.The band "without any T/O interest" was- IN THE PAST- 40p to 60p.I just report what I see though I bow to far greater minds here...GL. Everyone sing-"the future's not ours to see,que sera,sera-what will be,will be"

Quite surprisingly a fall from 101.25p in early January on Jindal's withdrawal has continued since then to now about 68p.The market seems unconvinced by the POSCO MOU,the 91p buy of 3.8% by IMIC, otherwise.This pattern of reluctant majors is quite common these days,as I said even the XTA/Glencore merger seems interminable though these are both majors.Was reading about banks.They are getting loads of propping up since central banks are scared of another 2008 meltdown when the most solid companies seemed ready to implode.However banks hold this govt. money close, stashing it in their vaults, and pity help businesses coming for loans.10 to 12% loan rates are usual for smaller companies lacking collateral.A lot of my thinking and recent actions has been changed by the article in Shares mag. a few weeks ago about the roughly 1/3 of AIM miners unlikely to be able to even manage basic costs.The AFF cash pile will be like gold dust soon.AFF were of course one of the few in that Shares mags. listed to show up well for finances. Anway back to charts-Ichimoku Trader says strong bear here not surprisingly.The "cloud" is in the lower 80's now. MACD's are still fairly level at minus 2.5,the relative strength is oversold at 35% volumes are quite steady but low since the end of Feb..Coming away in scale this SP is comparable to that of April 2012 from where the SP dipped to 40p till a recovery in the autumn of that year. In later 2012 an average of 60p but without any bid pressure,so the gap from that has narrowed.At least the POSCO interest should keep things going till about May anyway,thereafter it will depend on the market,whether POSCO or anyone else makes a move,or even what drillings/tests AFF themselves carry out.The next balance sheet should at least show a healthy profit overall.

are these other examples producers of iron ore ?

I'm sure your other figures are correct but in Wikipedia EV is given as common equity at market value plus preferred equity at market value plus minority interest at market value plus debt at market value plus unfunded pension liabilities etc minus associated companies at market value minus cash or equivalents

oldjaybee kindly referred to me on RRR today,I replied on SOLO... RRR have the large overcomplicated portfolio which AFE had in 2008 before several JV's simplified this company,MP admitting "too many irons in the fire".Here it remains to get backers as "go it alone" isn't feasible.MP in fact as far back as in 2009 was quoted as seeking these partners,at every mining meeting he must have met many prospective personalities.Yes the present AFE Board are much more faceless,I rated MP as top ever exec. in any company I'd invested in,a hard act to follow.

an article copyright about coming Chinese mergers to create super-companies rivalling BLT,RIO,Vale etc.

hairy-you refer to RRR.I took a hammering there for my views,they thought I wanted in again at a lower figure.No.I'm not returning there at all any time soon,took the loss on the chin,set aside against future CG on my tax form hopefully lol.So that was one of the "weaker shares" got rid of.The cash was immediately put in the ready use kitty via a profit taken on another share..

AIM might face a battering soon,with stock markets at or above their peaks.Only the stronger AIM shares will survive at a time when banks are loth to lend money,forcing AIM companies to try debt/equity solutions and giving dilutions.A number of Market Oracle articles are giving the realistic view on this.Majors put off taking over or JV' ing due to these pressures and others to do with investment like the price of oil,power and transport e.g. railway construction and power lines will be tied in with the BFS here. The choices for the individual investor- though Ren' found that a bit miserable yes maybe-should be if they agree- 1. looking at portfolios to sell weaker AIM shares,perhaps keep some which promise to last out better. 2. have cash from some share sales to finance future buying of disttressed shares at lower prices. 3. having a base of investments or income for when all else fails possibly in the cellar if you have one lol.

IMIC were quite happy to buy at 91p,with 3.8% of the company shares, and are sticking there.The peak after Jindals' interest was 101.25p.In event of further T/O positive news,the AFF SP must at least return to those levels if not a lot higher. If there isn't any immediate T/O news it will be back to the longer game.First the result of the POSCO MOU in a month or so whatever that might bring.Then results from drillings and tests at various AFF locations over the next few months. Finally the longer term railway and Sundance scenarios.Iron ore has been a bit down from better prices recently "BHP yesterday responds to Chinese iron ore manipulation claims-it is claimed by China that iron ore producers have raised prices..etc",-but no way can that be forecast past a week or so.In any case AFF isn't mining now so that has little effect.

Yes shorting might be part of the answer.However they might be overplaying their hand on the basis of charts the effect is at least wearing off a bit,if I were shorting,I'd take my profits soon..I feel there is no way this can return to the 60p pre-bid bands.

With the exponential day moving averages DMA,the AFF SP is below both the 50 and 150 DMA's(I'm forced to use 150DMA's rather than the normal 200DMA because Yahoo is giving an unusually high value for the 200DMA..)...on 24 Oct. there was a Golden cross when the 50DMA crossed above the 150 DMA.The SP peak of 101.25p was given on 31st December 2012.. Relative Stength is 35.6% which is oversold, having fallen since 24 December,the MACD is very low at -2.59,falling to there since 3 January, while volumes are down to as much as a tenth since the higher readings in January.Overall this is rather bad chartwise through from early January to now, though the oversold Relative Strength might hint at a coming recovery ? I swear by the MACD in charts -though I rate news far higher than charts in any case.Focussing in closer- the MACD since 21 February has gone level which might mean the SP will soon level out.Before this bid situation we were hovering at the 60p band for a while,it would be ridiculous to return there so hopefully this bad time will soon finish for the AFF SP.

LRL up nearly 1/3rd lol.