Member Info for mogo

I didn't mean to depress anyone,in fact the whole of AIM has been dysfunctional since at least 2010.A few scattered success stories but little else.Yes a casino and what Ipersonally try to avoid is grimly averaging down in a stubborn attempt to fight the trend.Pleasseeeeeeeeeeee nooooo OO again !! The directors-they don't take income except expenses and their options are below par.These are just my own views I am a nonentity here.Certainly though I see the US S&P hit a record last week of 5130 there isn't much general prosperity -unemployment rising inflation poor interest rates just.How many real people can buy shares in this scenario ?

A 943 buy there,which is around £15 worth including costs.The spread was 28.58% when the mid price was 2p,now it is 14.29% at 1.88p -think of a number,divide it by two ? The MM's probably got the 943 shares ? A placing has to happen for about £4m basic costs per year though that doesn't give any money for extra operations,only for a normal year.25th April 2012 was a £9.5m placing and OO.The OO wasn't a success as it wasn't fully taken up by PI's-maybe II's did take more-and quite soon after that, AFE shares were available at lower prices.Again I wouldn't take part in any OO,I don't intend to use up valuable cash at this stage of the economic cycle.I see the US S&P 500 GSPC hit a record the other week,though who knows whether/when it might go higher if at all ? I'd guess if AFE do want to make progress on a BFS in about a year they'd need to invite more II's on board with a lot of equity,and have dilution.They might go for more issuing more warrants though slready there is quite a lot of that. Debt can only come when future production is near enough so it can be offset as security against these debts as they have suggested.We are left with the choices about the poor mining sector performance since 2010 vs. the generally better stock market- 1. the general market tips over from a peak in the next year pulling mining down behind which will then be missing out in this cycle.. 2. the market falls but mining reaches its own peak later.My research suggests this hasn't happened.Happy if I'm wrong. 3. if there is a bit to go of rises in this cycle though its been rising since March 2009,there would be time for mining to pull up for a while. Sorry if the above sounds a bit pessimistic.I can only speak for myself.Either sell and rescue something if case 1 comes about,or hang in for cases 2 or 3 or even dig in if ignoring 1 happening..happy for anyone to come on and demolish this reasoning ?

I mentioned this the other day-with AIM there seems a trend recently.Due Diligence/MOU/declarations of interest etc. quite common with several shares I'm looking at these days.Iron ore mining is a £billion pound proposition only open to the majors.So you need to look at how many bids are being successful,a few are- like the Glencore/XTA tie up though those were existing large partners.Yes the Chinese are getting into Africa as with the Bellzone -Guinea situation,even there it will be a years duration project to come to fruition.The majors are hedging their bets,they want new sources of supply,in fact need them quite keenly,but money talks and cash in king.This might have quite a few chapters to go though yes it is quite promising..remember we here are committed AFF-ites we want this to succeed so we tend to be biased.

your situation won't be unusual. but you are "only" x4 off breaking even- a lot less than some will be and especially in other shares if held a while. I don't get the impression many PI's have been buying AFE recently or it wouldn't be so low,however the figures suggest still a lot of those at about 60% of smaller investors..Intervantage Investments 3.60%-a new one on me ? Warrants 122m compared to total 694m shares ?

See the Fox Davies comment- "this is a very positive statement after the discussions with Jindal ended..although it looks like a few months before anything definite is confirmed".On the POSCO main site nothing (as yet) about this.From their angle we are a very small £80m company with POSCO's valuation as one of the top world steel combines at £24.9bn. they are about 300 times bigger than AFF. So it this MOU is nothing much to them.Of course their comparative lack of fuss with the lack of news at their end should be balanced by how easy/cheap for them with their size it would be to move in here.GL.

This is at rock bottom SP's now.A placing is probably needed soon.

Looking at a number of AIM miners and oils it seems this is a common situation.AIM share gets T/O interest/MOU/major does D/D etc.Rarely are there hard and fast deals.The majors in mining and oils are cash poorer than they once were in absence of the banks' past support-look at the mess RBS are still in for example.RBS must once have financed many AIM companies but hardly now.The majors are still casting about. for good companies of course as here. Governments get involved,there are a few bodies prepared to help in Africa like some development banks there whose focus is on improving populations' situations.Several majors too have abandoned or scaled down large projects.Even the Chinese are more careful-they are affected by world trade trends too.Iron ore prices do seem however to have recovered after a bad 2012,confidence is a bit low though. It is the same with many shareholders.Active investors used to chop and change often,using profits off one to plump into the next one.Honestly few have had that pleasant experience for a long while.Of course we can hold our money in certain shares awaiting a time in a few years when things will come to fruition.This isn't anything against AFF,in fact few are so lucky with a cash pile to tide over till something happens.We need some successful shares so that money will percolate across to others.You make profits then look at others.The mining/oil sectors have not had this for about two years.So we get low volumes here after good news.It would be very nice if one or more companies do fire up at last -it is just a lot of time to wait for it to happen really.Very frustrating.And will the high up stock market peak meanwhile ? What then ? Sorry to appear less optimistic,still think this is a great prospect,but we need these extra people in here and these effects elsewhere do affect things.GL.

that's a bit worrying if true -we must check that out asap.Certainly I saw a bit about the railway had to be open to all iron ore producers so any S.Korean deal with AFF would be allowed use of the railway for ore purposes.Yes ore and passengers don't mix,you get huge long ore trains travelling slowly clogging up the presumably twin track route.They'd need plenty sidings to park trains in.If you view the Trans Siberian on Google you see that in action.Passengers probably wouldn't complain as they have nothing now trains in these areas tend to be slow anyway,you get flash floods and then baking heat distorting rails.So more research needed here.. GL.

sorry my post wasn't to you also,your posts here are very good.Yes no probs. who comes up with a good deal,AFF will take either Korean or Chinese currency lol. AFF seem to be doing a good balancing act so far.The cash pile gives staying power till these people make up their minds plus a few more successful drills hopefully.

The Chinese should still not by far be ruled out.AFF are sending out a message to IMIC and their Chinese backers-"we are in demand, and you've got only a few months to decide if you want us".Tactics really. Six months from December the Cameroon govt. had been aiming to have bought up land for the railway.Which is in the timescale of the conclusion of this MOU.Decisions will need speeded up in various places after this.

AIM shares will drive us all to drink lol..

Yes noticed that most AFF statements including Jindal,IMIC and this one include words suggesting AFF wish to be independent unless some remarkable offer comes. Of course their large cash pile offers that luxury unknown to most AIM companies struggling on the bread line-AFF must be one of the richest AIM companies and will exploit that fact.Any incoming investor will need to be big enough not to need the AFF cash pile anyway.Their reason for investment must be the iron ore AFF are investigating and they have to have large enough resources for mining of that.The Chinese(through IMIC) vs. S. Korea now ? POSCO can't anyway control that likely Chinese-controlled railway though...?

Whatever cash pile AFF have,£50m plus or whatever,it shouldn't be the cherry to get in a partner.One small enough to need that wouldn't be big enough to finance a new iron ore mining development.The raw resources themselves have to be the reason for an incomer investing.AFF might be one of the very few with enough cash to wait a year or so without debts or loans until a sufficiently attractive partner appears.So use the cash pile for just existing, and doing a bit of exploration.Which is being done.Many other AIM explorers meanwhile will be biting the dust.

Whenever shares are sold,someone always buys them assuming a market exists.Or the MM's take them up.Vestra Wealth as the name suggests plus most other II's here will be at quite large losses now.I've been surprised that these II's are not trying to sell then re-buy assuming they believe in AFE-if Vestra don't they won't be back-perhaps II's then can sell/re buy in a limited way without it showing up much on the register of major shareholders,there are programs which do sell/buy in small amounts for that..They might make a short term loss but hope to recoup quite soon,as the AFE SP is at very oversold levels.See the spread now of 28.57%-ridiculous for any serious company! For myself,I'm in the same mode now as in 2008,and why I survived from then to now.I recently sold two fairly large positions biting the bullet-not here.The share markets are getting near peaks now.There can only be about a year till a market peak goes over the top and with China,the fiscal cliff etc who knows when.So for myself- 1. no buying to any major extent 2. sold two large positions 3. cash is king till any large dip happens when that cash might be prudently used. 4. see Asset Allocation Pyramids -I've said that so often here,essential thinking.

for the 50km trip at least, loading on to rail then unloading it from rail- it would be faster just making a couple of road journeys there and back.

AGQ back producing,using a toll mill and hope to get their own one bought over.

It is derisked anyway,AFF could continue on their own and use road transport anyway at the very lowest,which isn't bad at all.

This has taken previous dips this low.It is similar to many other AIM explorers/developers.The maths I still feel are good going forward for those with reasonable averages here,patience and continued support from the steadfast II's, and the directors who have never sold for many years.Here we are mostly used to an annual roughly £4m placing for running expenses unless other things are required.The company is run ultra frugally.

Well done JT on the work you do for this! Utter fluke again being top,this is probably the most exciting comp. ever,anyone at all can win! Hurrah! Jib,Prar ,and JT are dark horses to come up on the straight to win, and none in pies...in my group already AFF doing badly.I see my near-choices Barr and Britvic might not now unite, and are both steeply down.

Jindal might not be getting quoted right,if they were,it isn't true as the real story is they are after far bigger deals elsewhere,even with their size they can't add AFF on to all that.They are bombed out of the railway which they appeared to want to control.