Member Info for mogo

latest OMI AISC is 1185,needs reduced yet.As per an article on commodities,there cannot be a sustained bull market until commodities are rising.see base metals copper is down about a half since 2011 but supply is also halved.Other base metals are down about a third in that period with supply cut by about a half excelt nickel whose supply has risen.Source Kitco base metals historical charts.The low suply is at least favourable for any recovery ?

examining the chart of the Dow Jones vs. the GDX the larger goldminers index-referred here as "gold" for shorthand-this shows- 1. period 2000 onwards.both the Dow and GDX had been high but as happens investors sold gold to recoup while their general shares lost value in that bear time up to about 2003. 2. we then saw how gold can have a different cycle from general shares as gold went for a peak up till 2011,much of the gains with gold coming at a time when inreest rates were going up to 6% running up to the 2007/8 shares crash. 3. from 2008 to 2011 interest rates were being cut to zero but gold went on rising to 2011.The gold crash since then has come with an increasing shares bubble up till early summer and the DJ has been in correction territory more than a 10% fall recently.Yes gold hasn't been good either but the lowest low was still a few weeks ago. Overall then we see= a. gold has its own cycles b. gold isn't too worried about interest rate rises provided things are ok.I've read that the REAL interest is best to be positive-that is the (actual rate of inflation minus the interest rate)=yes that isn't good just now as the actaul rate is around zero whilw the rate of inflation is about zero too...

No idea where this goes, usually towards more Fediggery-pokery but the Dow has now recorded an 8th lower low in the last 3 months.

You do not comment on that article,which is similar in the hitting a poor person when they're down attitude to the savage FT one I mentioned in the Tues. post. 1.FRES has one of the lowest AISC's for silver.] 2.FRES is biggest silver producer. 3.FRES is still making decent profits despite silver down way low. It is just a blip maybe but FRES has risen slightly more than the Dow has in 5 days. The Dow needs to fall 200 to make it's 8th lowest low in 3 months.. It amazes to see even the best article writers assuming trends must always continue from the present.Lucky that wasn't the case for Wall Street after 1929 lol !

yes this is a silver miner but looking at the free but copyright sites of the World Gold Council will soon educate that gold whose physical demand was only down 1% Q1 2014 to Q1 2015 is still a worthwhile investment,the weekend savage article in the FT News is up on Market Oracle under Commodities and is a tyoical gold destruction piece by a noted authority who might simetime reconsider his sweeping negative views,yes he is correct in the present time but nothing lasts forever.Each peak of the dollar.SP,Dow,etc, leads to the question where next from that ?

as we know too well here, waterfalls have to begin somewhere....

was going to post this before reading your post-the Dow in the last 3 months has hit 7 lower lows and is now below the 200 day moving average which doesn't help PMs of course still looking for a base.

they setting their alarms early again for late Sunday/Monday to potentially hit gold and silver again ? Their single minded occupation these days.Though gold is actually back at about 1098 now. The only sure thing is cycles exist naturally.Only time limits these progressing in the final analysis. Of course many twists and turns in the meantime must happen.

a few weeks ago we had Greece,China etc.Now against the referendum result the Greek govt. gains support for the austerity budget.China has slapped on huge state rules to limit selling and the 6 week bear market has just pulled inside the 20% fall from there.Also in China the declaration of only 1600t gold held by the state puts many gold bull commentators to flight.With oil still low, gold dished,all the plates still kept spinning by Janet and many of the cracks sealed over, is the US winning ? Though the next test of that is- can they begin interest rate rises and where goes the dripping debt tap at www.usdebtclock.org ?

from my post about the HUI containing a wrong figure which should be in fact now at 115 the lowest since 2003...

some weird figures.The HUI large gold miners index had been about 190 a month ago then on July 13 yahoo finance recorded it as ZERO,on the 20th at 113,latest charted is 184 but now 192 so some HFT shorting flash crashes indicated.Meanwhile gold is 1092 now.The Chinese share index SSE is slowly recovering at 4026 but fell from a 5166 peak recently.In the US some of the highly rated techs like Apple fell on not good results.The main backer of the theory that China has about 15,000 t of gold faced with the recent official report of up from 1000t to 1600t is now saying a lot of Chinese gold holdings are private though previously said state holdings.Yes theres been a lot of silly imaginings from the article writing silver/goldbugs but they still only need to be right once-see Silver Doctors for most of that moonshine...PM's still appalling in any language and in a low inflation scenario cash appears king unless you live in a country whose banks cant be trusted.One sure thing is 40 or so euros a day isn't enough for many even medium term.Emergencies such as car breakdowns,replacing worn out goods etc.,paying insurances cannot possibly be covered.

these events say little about the metals staying power except there is the event which took place while many buyers were offline early in the morning and over a few seconds by putting up shorts against gold and silver.Do not confuse these actions with much else which is mostly a waste of your time.

right,I do not claim to have any unique input or content.Anyway the best I can do is refer you to the running commentary on dshort-the big 4 economic indicators the latest on 17 July.Also the articles from Alistair Macleod on gold/silver.The strategy of central banks always engineering more stock market rises as seen in China for example has to end sometime only because it can't go on forever.

my post on HOC mentioning FRES

my post on HOC mentioning OMI

I am not the apologist for OMI or any share,I take my own risks.All investments depend on your own unique arrangements-finance,age,risk level,research,etc.OMI has replaced assets recently-see the website.Of course as a small company they need finance but so far have not required recourse to shareholders.There are other sources as well as going underground at Arenal as with Chile.Basically you need to trust the bosses or get out.They have a quite good track record though.But you decide.I'd guess it might take a few years of a share horizon.World debt is up a third since 2008 and we each owe jointly 27 thousand dollars worldwide.See article on Market Oracle under commodities. Also www.usdebtclock.org strangely hypnotic.

commentators keep spouting forth about a future gold recovery but no sign of that now ,they are using the fact in defence that this period is the annual low in records for years- it is Junetime in any year. -there are several possible events which can be listed- a. a PM recovery b. a general shares slump c. a currency/derivatives.debts collapse now a and b given ultimate patience for years to hold PM shares if we have that must happen, however c. they won't allow even if the rules need rewritten,so do not bank on it at all.What this thus reduces to is- can you hold your PM shares long enough ?

general share fall

no not preparing to dive more into PM's unless/until there is a solid recovery/trend. I'm in enough already in ones including this that I like without ref. to silly reports.Years ago Edison reported on a share they rated at 45p which was then at 15p,when it slumped to below 5p they rerated it about 2p though the parameters of the company were nearly all the same.Yes its suspended now but that was much later and no thanks to Edisons crystal ball-gazings..These reports just swim with the tide mostly,not using the word "sell" the word underweight the closest. .By all old school methods which cannot allow for Fedfiddling a general share must come soon,but despite the withdrawal of QE nothing happening,except bonds maybe peaking soon.Again souldestroying is the best adjective to describe these investing days.GL to yourself too.

has OMI savaged your cat or whatever lol.Really this small company cannot be expected to produce miracles in this heads we lose tails we lose mining setup for 6 years so far.Greece will obviously be bought and rebought then rererererebought only since much larger agendas are hazarded otherwise.The Germans will own all the sunloungers.Interminable souldestroying unbearable is only 1% of putting up with it.