Member Info for mogo

Anyone know how many shares can be put on a portfolio list here in LSE ? Thanks.

Though all the natural gas was sold,I still intend to keep up with it on the net.The best site is the EIA one.There you get what you need-futures prices,supply levels,weather,economic forecasts,etc.At the moment weather is cold in the US which helps usage but stocks though now beginning to be depleted are very high,even a record at this stage.Industrial gas comsumption is low, waiting on any recovery.If I come back in ,it may be a short beginning in the end March.That is the new injection season.It however won't take much to fill storage back up again.Where can that leave producers ? So it's not simple.There will need to be a huge weeding out of producers before any progress can be made.Then there's large amounts of LNG sitting in ships waiting to come in,and I've mentioned already the huge advances in the ability to get previously unobtainable gas out of shale beds in larghe quantities using new technology...

investinnit-I sold up my nat.gas at a loss-it wasn't bad looking for months then slow realisation that this is a dangerous one.Why-well they have invented horizontal drilling and fracturing shale beds releasing far more gas so production soared in 2009.Supply is very high even taking into account the bad weather coming now it might be impossible to make much dent in the storage all winter.So summer 2010 will see even earlier filling up of tanks than this record year.The amazing thing is gas companies have not gone burst as yet.I pointed out the fall in overall drilling rigs earlier in posts correctly but actually within that the more effective horizontal ones increased a bit.So most reckon nat.gas longs investing is going nowhere for a year or so.There will be more LNG coming in by ship too.I'd think of shorting nat.gas from about March from a possible peak in prices then once winter ends.SNGA is one ETC.But overall I might just stay out as it's a rather rocky market.Yes the stability of gas firms is the joker card in this.Sorry to be offputting this is all from sites not my own opinion.Yes I lost quite a lot I was amazed when this happened.Though I'm still in plenty else.

Try to access often the fololowing excellent sites-commodity news under Bloomberg and FT News.Kitco Base Metals.Market Oracle the commodities parts.

China is another factor,the more recent rises in mining are thought to be due to Chinese stocking up of metals,not much so far a real industrial improvement.And now the stocking appears finished you are finding metals are on a kind of plateau.

One very big thing is Speculation,many thought about half of last years' rises were due to that.Then in autumn there were falls due to shorting,Obama is trying to sort out all the scams,derivatives etc. but its a jungle,we do not appear to be able to have anything but either bubbles or their opposite which I call anti-bubbles lol.

Higher gas prices came in about March this year,since then there's been not such big further rises,though prices are still staying at a high level.Full gas tanks now everywhere,the number of rigs is way down and gas suppliers are shutting down.It's the rig number whiuch is the key- most production comes from newer fields,it drops about 50% after the first year,no idea why,maybe the pressure falls ? Anyway that makes rig number the main deciding factor.The recession and good summer weather too.Once we get some lessening of the recession,the winter comes, and the effects of fewer rigs comes through, some think early 2010 will be better.Though those tanks need emptied.Some feel that won't take that long if there have been a lot of shutdowns to production plants.As to the $ versus the £ -obviously that affects things, but provided gas prices multiply again several times-they have fallen far more than that-the exchange rate won't be hurting so much then if it's bad.Gas should be a very good investment given patience and provided you get in now while prices are the lowest for many years.

aveawoo-still not seen you on Aeolia,must be a long hol. you are having,maybe you are getting so much profit to spend these days lol.Anyway I am still posting mainly on LNGA and some on LOIL which another person here has.I don't see anyone else interested much on this site.Recently I looked at the SNGA charts I use Selftrade charts which are excellent,no need to join for many things there.I used SNGA short gas charts as the plots are easier since LNGA has been flattish for a while.I find that a top was reached on SNGA about mid-June at $133 while recently it has been hovering about the $115 area,a sign of topping out I'd say and we want that one to fall of course.Considering that LNGA is now about $2.50 and was at above $90 last year I regard gas as a future winner.DYOR.I posted about this on General- "shares which will Double" too.Hope to chat sometime to you...cheers mogo.

..and the best of those was KAZ...

Yes PAT from Feb. to a few weeks ago,several major mining companies including VED actually doubled.However the last little while this rally has petered away.I read somewhere metals usually tail off a bit in the summer.That might be it.Maybe from the autumn things will revive...

aveawoo,I post to others quite often within the Aeolia thread in General,on things including ETC's like LNGA and LOIL which are quite similar to NGAS.You are welcome to join us there.

Nickel and natural gas appear still to be running well at this stage.Copper seems (temporarily?) to be pausing a bit.I say temporarily as any recovery must be based on copper with its many electrical and building uses.So either copper goes up,or no recovery... Crude oil is a bit hesitant.There was a report yesterday that China over the next 3 years will buy 400,000 tonnes of zinc and lead,which is almost the amount total of both together at the London Metals Exchange as of now...

Natural Gas of the fuels ETC's is up the most strongly this week.Of metals,nickel is moving fastest with tin,and silver quite good too.In softs, it wasn't surprising that Lean Hogs recovered once Swine Flu showed signs (at least outside Mexico), of stabilising a bit.

Yes PAT gold is needed to help stabilise the world a bit,though not enough there to act as an alternative currency. It might be possible someday for a basket of commodities to be a kind of world standard on which to hang the economies,though once again that would disriminate against the poorer ones.

Oil returning to prominence today-and all the ETC 's with that and petrol,gas etc up strongly now..note again how low these have been,must be a massive upside sometime,in fact these are still the lowest comparitively rated compared to last summer...

Never let it be said that only when things are good that posts go in.Copper and other base metals settled back in the last week. The IMF says world economies will shrink 1.3% this year but rise 1.9% next year,copper meanwhile had still risen 44% in London and 52% in Shanghai despite the recent losses...however it looks like there may be yet another leg of the bear market so we need care with any cash....

Today and yesterday cooper,lead and zinc ETC's taking off...worth a stab ?

A little more on soft commodities.As I said, these are harder for a newcomer than the metals.Unexplained rises and falls in a day,based on rumours like "the wet weather in the US may depress the soya crop",then next day a reerse "due to the approach of the southern season".Yes, you get 2 big crop times a year,southern and northern hemisphere.You find corn and wheat cross-substitute each other,in fact there's supposed to be a ratio which is about constant so helping corn/wheat price balances.Wheat is normally dearer.Most prices are fixed in the US, and several crop commodities have a maximum per day rise or fall allowed.If crude oil is low, the soya and corn used for ethanol-substitute fuel becomes uneconomic.However when crude oil is high, these crops get siphoned away from food towards fuel more.Note that corn is actually what we call maize.

Base metals ETC's appear to be mixed enough to concentrate more.Aluminium and especially tin appear to be struggling a bit these days.So maybe the time to temporarily at least divest those.Nickel is coming up the straight quite fast,while copper,lead and zinc are still doing well.With oil,a lot of patience will be required- in fact it could be another year before take-off from present rock-bottom prices.It's always confusing though as natural gas is today the overall leader in ETC's.With the ETF's,DB Vietnam $ is looking good.The East is certainly going to outclass the West this year.Watch China,Korea,India,Russia and Brazil too.Fot other commodities a strong showing for Sugar.Not gone into these much here,but from past experience you need toknow your stuff as being renewable you are at the mercy of weather,pests,climate change too...

First comment since the beginning of this about ETF's-leader this week ending was the LYXOR F RUSSIA (LRUS),at its' high, though only been going 3 months...had previously mentioned Korea-DB MSCI KOREA (XKS2), at an all-time high now,as is the DB MSCI BRAZIL (XMBR).Well off the top for now, but still at the all-time high, is the well-backed ISH FTSE XINHUA (FXC) from China,the most successful exchange so far.Note codes for these are in brackets.DYOR.