Member Info for mogo

this is a similar situation to in Guinea where Bellzone BZM with Chinese and I think road is out of the question there,is too far from the coast unlike AFF's Ntrm.BZM the other year was 60p now it is just above 5p so far worse..GL.

I'll assume the new Cameroon port will be finished next year.At rockbottom there would be two base choices assuming Sundance,Nkout etc didn't happen.This is on the table due to world effects-probs of majors,lower metal prices,poor banks and investment etc.I'd love that to not be the case- as per my previous post.- 1. no Ntem,no railway no road iron ore haulage no Nkout (the present position base situation). 2. Ntem with road haulage a short distance. In case 1. the new port wouldn't be operating though complete,in case 2. it would be on a limited basis.The Cameroon govt. must appreciate this and will soon enough.How would they react ? Might they try to encourage Ntem with road, to keep the project viable ? GL.

My post a few days ago semi-forecast that AFF would fall to a balance with the cash pile which it now has.Though I don't claim anything in fact quite offput by it.So AFF is regarded at this time as a pile of cash,a cash shell without any value at all above that ? Equivalent to a piggy bank in fact! The efforts of the board and hopes of the investors are dust.This to me entirely echoes the situation in the AIM mining sector,which seems to becoming a tribute act to the early 00's dot.coms now.If you don't know they lost most of their value,a mass walk out of shareholders after previously being hot.Some went burst.AFF might need to survive on the cash pile a while now awaiting interest from majors though that cash should ensure they survive,but unfortunately few majors are biting for deals sector-wide these days even the Chinese.Yes of course Cameroon should one day be a hotspot for iron ore but to be frank it might not be too soon .In most of AIM it is a choice of shares put in a cupboard,averaging down expensively-is that wise,or getting out with losses.Luckily here there won't be the damaging placing you're getting elsewhere.Yes that wasn't nice reading but the AIM SP's aren't either.GL.

-I still am in SKR though-on the edge of China able to supply their markets once development happens.

More important than our VPF is the state of AIM oils and miners.I've exited a few recently at some cost, in some cases.I don't regard that as vital at the moment,in fact a lesser evil and more to protect some of the cash staked there from further erosion.Meanwhile into some better sectors,not specifying where- been that road before...there's still some mining/oil exposure so I can have these as very long term options.AIM mining even more than oils seems to suffer from several factors which appear to be worsening- 1. plenty better sectors must be draining money out from it. 2. many majors with their own difficulties,closing or downscaling projects to save money.The result is many AIM miners keep waiting for interest in JV's/takeovers with them that never comes. 3. the banks are still not available to lend money,they in turn with their own probs. 4. large shorts by big hedging companies like JP Morgan on many metals stopping their price growth 5. derivatives used by MM's and private investors and companies to hit the AIM miners SP's. 6. deliberate shorting connivance of AIM miners of their own shares using SEDAs like with YA Global/AGQ. 7. high interest loans 12% to 15% from finance companies to AIM minefs quite commonly the only offers available. 8. country risks- local taxes,labour disputes etc. and worse from places where mines are. 9. high costs of fuel,oil,electricity,transport for production/plant plus high labour costs makes it hard to finance and set up mines.. Yes this was not nice reading.Mining is now the 2nd worst sector of 36 total over 1 month and 1 year.GL

One of the reports (c) suggested AFE had brought the book keeping to the TZ govts' attention...seems to be from the last few years needs checked... -connected to departure of Finance director- my guesses...no BFS and maybe not enough money to do one as any placing would be highly dilutive..the igood dea of switching later into sulphides which might provide the required sulphuric acid- might have been seen earlier ? Also first heard of search for "partners" back in 2009 why wasn't it done then ? Sorry but these were missed chances,and a lot of other assets had to be dropped for almost nothing.. Again sorry to say this however they have generally done well in getting solid- behaving II 's since about 2010.Which is needed badly now,in fact desperately really to rescue this low SP hopefully.GL.

I couldn't get into the .pdf but from memory there isn't any TZ share slice in AFE. AFE though do/did social works and provide local income and employment ? The AFE Financial Director departs..(?)..all of this is connected.

I remember.You once were most frquent poster here in 2008-9 I think.All the best!

though not sure about where/when the stock market goes from the peak we are near now,I was amazed that the UK govt. is fuelling another sub prime housing boom/bust by offering the chance for low wage earners to get a 600k house mortgage on a 5% e.g. 30k deposit ! Of course if/when that blows up they'll print their way out of it.ex-Sir Fred tried that first at RBS using toxic CD's but these will be govt. backed so the taxpayers will be stumping up.A nightmare.

The market is rigged yes,JP Morgan etc., have large shorts probably on behalf of govts. on gold silver and copper,whose prices are thus kept in check.Interest rates too keep things clamped down.They wanted a stock market boom though don't assume it is ring fenced rather more important to them is they wanted to value down the huge debts using inflation.The idea was you remove all your money out the banks into shares,fine if the shares you're in do well lol,obviously not the case in AIM miners.The Cyprus bank taxes are a plan to be used too in future after a mini try-out there.Bank accounts in the UK though protected by an 85k limit- watch yourself if above that, are in any case being sliced by inflation and money printing,the latter not available in the eurozone of course for small countries like Cyprus.AIM miners having had a bear market since 2010 within a general bull market -these should recover but it might be a long while yet.And some won't survive till then.I'm not saying AFE is finished but we might not be anywhere near base yet,and placings are coming.Hopefully the II's stay loyal that will decide it.There isn't anything specific wrong with this,it is just the scenario we are in these days.GL.

When I say "my portfolio is seriously burned" that refers to the amounts I have been prepared to put into shares including AFE the last few years.I've taken profits on a kind of tracker which did well from the stock market rise so that's something at least.However I can't rush in anywhere unsafe now.If I did that I'd risk being really in the soup.I was taught a lesson in the banks crisis of 2008 never to do such things. Yes it is awful to lose on mining shares. The problem though is finance of mining and the banks have never got back fully since 2008.I've no idea how long this will go on for. I'll go on being careful here and eveywhere.I suppose if all else fails I might get another tracker but only at rockbottom of the next cycle.Having these cycles is the only sure thing we know about, e.g. "no more boom and bust"-GB 2008 of course he says he never said that ,but it is a fairly reliable thing to base your investment ideas on,that does happen and always will. GL.

Sadly it is the whole AIM mining sector-the unwise might average down constantly to attempt to fight the market.Be very careful unless you want to pump in very large sums, and have it to burn.My portfolio is seriously burned now so I can't.What you are witnessing is a bubble bursting really.

the new Greenland govt. is to limit the number of oil licences to the present 20 or so,CNE has a lot of these but no oil was found comercially.

Of course this is totally none of my business.However both of us watched as our stakes here fall from 17p to now nearly 1p the price it was back in early 2009,yes before Dutwa was recognised as a great asset.Look back just into the RNS history,back to a time where some of the Zambian assets were looked to in those RNS as world-beaters,that had been before I came in in 2008.Those all gone now for a pittance really to Elephant.I'm never dissing Dutwa by the way.The problems are two-fold now- 1. the fact potential major investors are scaling back-you are a great researcher you know this. 2. the decline in the whole AIM mining sector is reminiscent of a bursting bubble like the banks in 2008 and the dot.coms of the early 00's.Who remembers Marconi,Baltimore-burst dot.coms or Northern Rock,Bradford Bingley-burst banks ? Some of the AIM miners will go burst soon.Remember the important Investors Chronicle article a few months back forecasting 1/3 of AIM miners couldn't cover basic costs.Fund raising-an AFE placing at say 1p raises 1/5th less than at 5p other things being equal unless it involves 5 times the placed shares.So huge dilutions at these levels coming up.Yes they'll announce things before that,to try to push up the SP first.But again a placing at 4p raises half what it did at 8p and so on.In a mining bear market the maths is inescapable. Then the averaging down maths-which is how much capital you need to bring the average down by how much.Again I don't need to tell you about that.An article I read said- "averaging down is the use of capital to try to protect equity".

you see this thing a lot elsewhere too- 1. majors cutting back-I can give you over 5 examples recently easily to you anytime 2. AIM members waiting hanging on majors' delaying actions which are due to the majors' own problems of cutbacks,production delays etc-loads there again I can give you anytime of recent examples. Luckily AFF will not be involved in the third factor which is money-raising by placings,SEDAs due to their large cash pile.AFF do also have the actions of the Cameroon govt. to help-encouraging port development and getting strips of "railway land" bought up.I see therefore AFF as one of the few AIM companies ready to do better.The whole AIM mining sector looks like a bubble burst as per the banks in 2008 and the dot.coms in the early 00's.

At the time of the 2008 RBS and other banks' crash I knew a friend who kept pumping money into RBS and averaging down defiantly.You know the end-result- RBS fell below 10p from about 800p and was mostly nationalised,it still hasn't recovered much 5 years since.Now there isn't going to be anyone putting taxpayers' money in here.Be very careful,one person cannot fight a whole market sentiment...

-if you have the money,good,but be careful all the same,Ren.

the company being worth now a net £14m after deducting the cash pile ,is equivalent to many quite low level explorers on AIM. James Mackie investment manager on McQuarie was asked in Resource Investor 25/3/13 how he balances risk in investing in small miners he says- 1. a sizeable ore body 2. high investment by directors in the company 3. support from the country 4. quality of management 5. time to production. summary for copyright in my own words..

Since about a year ago not just here but in far worse-performing shares that I had or I still have,I've felt as if the AIM shareowning community has been under attack from forces beyond their control.Not any fair market.Of course you expect losses as well as gains this has always been true.Nowadays we have govts. trying to avoid defaults,rising costs and above all derivatives where so many have vested interests in lowering share prices.See the attempt on BZM there.They have no railway but have some production,the solid backing of Chinese for development and uptake of future iron ore.They can manage with road transport.But yet today their SP gets murdered... -mike your portfolio won't be just AFF you might have other things,I think that makes the difference in how you are able to hold on -the relative strengths/weaknesses of your committments/earning and investment power. Also the time factor is very important too. Only you can answer that for yourself. Best wishes mogo.

Can that BZM SP be true ? (at this time of posting)-checked it on iii too..