Member Info for MisterPositive

Broker forecasts should get higher as things progress.

Farm-in could come sooner than we might think. I'm happy to wait. Also exploitation licence could come early going by Mike Buck latest podcast.

Mongolian Govt is keen and as excited as MATD to get a move on. Don't know why some posters keep staying no significant news over next months???....really.

In my humble opinion, BIG news would most likely land well before next drilling season so all plans can be finalised early.

Yep, any of those news bits could come early and will catch the traders out with their pants down....LoL

It means, Exploitation Licence could come lot sooner and well before next drilling season, most likely leading to a early JV partnership OR farm out deal with PetroChina.

So 2020 drilling programme could look very aggressive with PetroChina coming on board, giving us upfront cash for Farming in. MATD can then go after all 3 targets in Block V while also getting additional cash flow from Block XX production.

Dusterhater,

That simply meant, given it's only 2 months before end of Dec, govt officials did not laugh, as normally Mongolian Govt is not the most efficient with paperwork, etc. But as even the Mongolian Govt is very excited about Heron discovery and lot more to come. Govt has always wanted their own local explorer/ producer to come up with the discovery for a change, instead of PetroChina.

So they would 'FAST TRACK' the exploitation licence paperwork to commence production ASAP. MAtd has already started the paperwork in advance, coz that is how confident Mike Buck was, but kept a tight lid on things. It's called managing expectations.

Under promise....and Over deliver...as the saying goes.

Excellent interview.

Exploitation licence by end of 2019 pretty much on then.

Block XX on track to become a great cash earner for MATD.
This is prime 10 bagger, 20 bagger stock in my opinion.

Sorry, cut the sentence half way...

What about placing at a Premium?

Institutional investors were happy with 10p...now that oil is found, with lot more to come. Even 7-8p might look very attractive.

How about placing at a Premium?... given that company has oil proven now at Heron, with lot more to come. Asset is already de-risked. Institutional Investors were happy
quick to monetise, with infra structure already in place right next door.

NPV10 for just 15Mmbo discovery is $80m.

Heron looks to be lot bigger than even 25Mmbo, with light sweet oil. Recovery rate of 0.15 used on 165Mmbo was ultra conservative.

Feb would be way too late. Price moves well ahead of news. Now that oil is found at Heron-1 with lot more to come.

Feb 2017 price touched 38p intra-day High.

Dec 2016 price was around 3p.

Where do you think biggest gains came from....winter months.

Degsy, it's already come good this year.

Next year would only get better, a lot lot better. Just go with the flow if your holding period is more than 10 minutes that is......LoL.

Degsy, repeatedly goes on about step out well???

That's for Gazelle...which is under review for next steps to work on the 'pinch-out' which would only Add on to Heron discovery.

Heron-1 already struck light sweet oil that flows naturally from DST2...company now tackling DST1.

NPV10 figures for 150MMbo = $1 billion

For 75 MMbo would be circa $500 million (NPV10 basis)

These are on shore wells with very low extraction costs and route-to-market already in place for quick monetization.

https://youtu.be/MH14XW_BHA8

Watch the interview from Jan 2019.

11.30 minutes in, Mike Buck quotes NPV10 figures for different size discoveries/ prospects.

15Mmbo = $80m
50Mmbo = $300m
150Mmbo = $1 billion

Heron already at 25Mmbo recoverable with a upgrade most likely due to even better flow rates naturally, higher than expected.

165Mmbo x 0.15 recovery rate = 25 Mmbo recoverabke
165Mmbo x 0.30 recovery rate = 50 Mmbo recoverable
165Mmbo x 0.45 recovery = 75 Mmbo recoverable.

Those NPV10 numbers look very juicy.

Russukarian, yep. You got it right.

There were similar folks around the time it ran up from 3p to 38p....some misjudged the momentum. Few sellers here n there do not make a difference. Market is much bigger than a few traders.

It is psychological, when u sell, u want to buy back lower and not higher, purely to justify your decision to themselves, so they can pat themselves on the back....lol

1) Company looking at DST1 also at Heron.

2) Gazelle 'pinch-out' being evaluated further.

And some numpties still shouting....no news for 6 months and placing???

Some of you would remember the run up in price between Nov 2016 to Feb 2017. Having hovered around 5p during Nov 2016. By end of Feb 2017, price hit 38p in just 3 months on speculation of Farm-In deal well ahead of wild cat drills with no oil discovered at the time.

Fast forward to Oct 2019....we have now discovered light sweet oil that flows to surface naturally. Funded for 2020 drills and ever more closer to striking a good Farm In deal. Further testing from Heron and Gazelle still to come.

Think some of the sellers would be buying in at a higher price when next news drops in coz this moves fast.

Agree. More to come. Drilling season has not even ended. Company is busy with further evaluation of Gazelle 'pinch out' and follow up testing on Heron 'oil-bearing' intervals. Yet some de-rampers spouting inactivity??? Really...

Company was quick to kick start exploitation licence to be ready in time for Production next year, while further exploration continues with most likely Heron 2,3 etc.

as per 30 Sep 2019 RNS (Interim Results).

The Company's cash balance at 30 June 2019 was USD 16.12 million (USD 3.79 million in cash and USD 12.33 million in Financial Assets), which compares to a cash balance of USD 15.55 million (USD 12.54 million in cash and USD 3.01 million in Financial Assets) on 30 June 2018.

Looks like management was pretty smart by transferring about additional +$9m cash into high interest earning financial assets, generating circa $508,000 just in Interest Income (look at 30 June Cashflow statement).

https://youtu.be/MH14XW_BHA8

Must watch interview...

...with lots of key info around well costs and NPV10 valuations for the different oil prospects.

Pro,
Good post. De-rampers always use Placing as a last resort to try to get in cheaper. Company has plenty of cash. If folks read Half-year results closely, they will see cash balance was $16.12m ($3.79m + $12.334m).

1) there is still about 4 weeks before drilling season ends. Follow through Heron-1 testing those oil-bearing intervals. Expect further update here.

2) further updates on Gazelle...which could surprise to the upside in a big way in my view.

3) use winter months to get 'Exploitation' licence sorted.

4) negotiate deal with Petro China as one option, which makes obvious sense with substantial cost savings and synergies for both companies.

5) velociraptor postponed (sensibly) to next year, to use that $3m saved for Heron-2,3,4 and Gazelle follow up drills.