Member Info for mister_tidal

I did not join here to bash on SAE but to engage in honest discussions. After reading too many posts about how "awesome" it is having 3 out of 4 turbines running and that SAE was at ~30 GBX back in 2020 and that it still should be there.

Maybe you think that highlighting negative points is contradictory but it's simply not. Whether or not this company is going to have success is not going to be determined by a few people talking on this board. If you're only here to talk about how well the company is doing I'd invite you to look at the share price and reflect on that tiny piece of information alone. I don't want to imply that the share price paints the whole picture but in a way it does tell us a lot.

If you chose to be sarcastic because of my previous comment: I didn't mean to offend. Not even when I "tYpEd LiKe tHiS". I just wanted to highlight that there are a lot of shallow comments from people who either have no idea what's going on, or who are simply trying to pump and dump their shares.

If anything, negative comments should keep SAE on their toes. They have far more reach than any of us and they could just ramp up their comms and tell us about the progress, their milestones and how they want to achieve them etc. Instead, we get promises, big announcements followed by failure and disappointment. Are they to blame for everything? No, certainly not, but if you haven't grown skeptical over the past few years at the very least then you haven't been paying attention.

Just be honest: How confident are you that SAE is going to secure £ 100m to £ 190m, at a market capitalization of ~£13m without diluting shareholders into oblivion or take on a debt they can only repay in +10 years?

Only until SAE announces how they are going to pull this off, I'll remain skeptical. As I said in another post: The only thing I see right now is the fact that they MAY be able to secure funding in AR5 as well. If they can realize the Phase 2 with the contract from AR4, then I am willing to recognize the light at the end of the tunnel but BESS and the big "maybe" regarding sub-coal projects won't do for me. "Hold" is the absolute best I can do for SAE. "Buy" if you want to speculate on thin ice.

@Wenglishboy a strike price of £90/MWh is +100% of what you pay today for wind energy. And £90/MWh is, according to [1], only realistic after having deployed 1,000 MW. SAEs strike price in AR4 was £178.54/MWh (see [2]) which is +400% compared to wind. And now let's talk about reliability: How reliable are those turbines right now? I honestly can't tell but the turbines being out for such a long time is what make the current price tag a huge problem. The tides maybe reliable, but are the turbines? My doubts have grown and even more so since SAE does not bother to elaborate on the outage.

We can't just say: "tiDaL iS beTteR beCaUse it'S ReLiaBle cOmPareD to wiNd And soLAr" because it's simply not the only thing that matters.

[1]: https://www.marineenergywales.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ORE-Catapult-Tidal-Stream-and-Wave-Energy-Cost-Reduction-and-Ind-Benefit-FINAL-v03.02.pdf
[2]: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1103022/contracts-for-difference-allocation-round-4-results.pdf

I just said it in another thread and I'll repeat it here: The fact that there's still so much R&D involved is what makes an investment unattractive. If you want money from someone, you'll have to explain how you can make more out of it. What kind of return can we expect if we invested £100m to £200m today? The answer is: We don't know. Why? Because, as you say, the R&D is still not done. SAE can't guarantee that this kind of investment is ever going to deliver any return whatsoever and with that money all you get is 28MW capacity.

Yes, tidal stream is still not where it could be. This is probably something people might say as a response to this but: It would be a whole different story if their turbines showed reliability and endurance. The past year didn't do us a favor here. Further, SAE would have to lay out a production plan on how to lower the cost of these turbines and lower it fast while, at the same time, increase the reliability. NOT to make them profitable.. but less unprofitable for now..

@littlegrandma you said it. £100m+ is probably the amount of money in order to deploy 28MW. Surely, cost per turbine has the potential to drop but I don't believe that the cost will be below £100m. I don't the current cost of a turbine but they still sit around £10m each then we're talking about £190m. So.. that is our range. This is, however, nothing new. That's the main reason why tidal stream energy is where it is at right now and it's also why investment is needed. Unfortunately, at least not to my knowledge, SAE has a clear development roadmap on how to reduce the LCOE of these turbines. I know there is a paper out there claiming the cost could drop to less than £90/MWh after the deployment of 1GW (yes, 1,000 MW) but in all those years I've been following SAE I never heard anything concrete on how exactly this price target, which is still very high compared to wind and solar, can even be achieved.

@Strangy83 After they secured the CfD I as well thought that this will be the turning point. I kept this view from the beginning because this was the holy grail that I speculated on. Before I bought into SAE, I thought that Uskmouth would provide the liquidity needed to lower the MWh price and keep the company afloat. Combine this with a CfD and yeah.. that's a light right there. But things have changed slightly and I feel people do not appreciate the fact that SAE has nothing going for it to make use of the CfD.. unless.. they take on a lot more debt and dilute shareholders even more. This and the fact that profitability for tidal stream energy is not even close to being visible on the horizon prevents investments from coming in I guess.

@JUSTDAVE2020 Really? You're kind of stating it yourself. If there's still R&D involved, that means the technology is still not ready, still not scalable, and is still breaking down. The company is listed since Feb, 2014 and we still see major outtakes. "What's the big deal" .. I wonder ..

Sorry: I meant to say "I THINK that this opinion thing is unreliable"

I don't think that this opinion thing is unreliable. For one, you do not know the bias. Like.. what kind of person is more likely to post on this board? Not knowing this very simple variable is going to set you off anyway and then there's the question of trust, multiple accounts and "pump and dump" schemas. Really.. if this field was any good as predictor then it would turn in to a useless one shortly after.

Hi.

I've been lurking around on this forum for a while now. Checking in once or twice a week hoping there could be some useful insight but all I find is a war between a few rational voices (imo) and a few way too optimistic people.

I looked at SAE in 2019 and bought in 2020 some shares at 7 GBX right before it went to ~30 GBX due to Uskmouth. Sound familiar?

Since then I've been closely following this particular company because it was my "play money" investment. The one with a lot more risk but also a lot more reward. Guess that's also nothing out of the ordinary.

The reason why I decided to enter the fray here is because I feel Strangy83 and his stance and it's truly annoying to see people post close-to-phantasy scenarios. Just alone the fact that 3 out of 4 turbines is to some "good news" is beyond me. That fact that still not all 4 are running is devastating enough because, as we all know, energy prices are soaring and every single day a turbine is not spinning is very much needed revenue that's lost. That fact that we're still not back at 100% is absolutely terrifying unless you people fail to see the implications and what message this is sending to any potential investor. Be it private or government. Also, I can't be the only one who has the feeling that there's something that SAE isn't telling. Why did all this take so long? Leaving this question unanswered for such an experimental technology in its pre-market stage will always over-shadow any "good news" about redeploying a turbine months after it should have been deployed.

Yes.. SAE was able to secure a CfD but you all seem to forget that they have to deliver as well. For 28 MW we need round 19 turbines. Can anybody guess how they are going to fund this? I mean.. assuming they even get the funding. Right: Additional debt & shareholder dilution. And even after deploying another 28 MW, the technology is still going to remain way to expensive for SAE to deploy further turbines.

The only reason why I am on "Hold" is because I hope there's going to be some kind of miracle that won't make the value of my shares evaporate when they need money for 19 turbines and that they somehow reduce the cost and win another contract in CfD AR5.

People keep asking why the share price does not move: Why on earth should it move?!

People keep complaining about day traders not holding their shares: Seriously? That's what you think is the problem with this stock? Nobody here throws money in and wants to sell at a loss. The reason why people are not holding is because SAE does not offer a lot of reasons to do so.

Now.. what's my excuse for not selling and leaving this behind? Before I went in I did my own research and for this one stock I follow one and only one strategy: This company either goes bankrupt and I lose everything or it is going to be successful and I'll be a happy person.

I really can't stand these comments either who blatantly ignore the facts.

Cheers.