Member Info for mister_tidal

Exactly.

Why do they keep playing with me feelings, munin?

Last round, Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 (AR4), the UK government declared a £300m investment for tidal energy, promising £20m per year of investment for the next 15 years.

I was expecting that there will be another ring-fenced budget in AR5.

It seems that there is no ring-fenced budget and that tidal has to, once again, compete against floating offshore wind energy:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1124052/cfd_ar5_core_parameters.pdf

As you're probably aware, the strike price from SAE was £174/MWh whereas for offshore wind it was £87/MWh.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1103022/contracts-for-difference-allocation-round-4-results.pdf

Hence, I doubt that SAE is going to be able to compete in AR5 because, as we all know, tidal's price per MWh is not going to fall below £100/MWh until approximately 1GW of capacity has been deployed.

https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Tidal-stream-cost-reduction-report-T3.4.1-v1.0-for-ICOE.pdf

If there's is not another ring-fenced budget then SAE likely won't secure another contract in AR5 which means they won't be able to expand MeyGen and there's no more investments coming. At least not that I know of.

The additional 28MW from last year simply won't do.

Oh and for the record: Just because they said they would do it, that does not mean that they will.

Since they're not losing a word about it, I fear that there won't be one would be another huge pile of sh*t on top of the ongoing sh*tshow ..

Guys... really..?!

The ring-fenced budget is literally the only reason why SAE was able to secure a contract. If tidal is what you guys are here for, how can you not know this?

Last year the UK government announced a £20m per year ring-fenced budget for tidal. It was the deciding, last minute decision and if you ask me, I would have written SAE off last year if that dedicated budget wouldn't have been announced.

They separated tidal & wave from other forms of energy because they simply cannot compete, as in CANNOT COMPETE AT ALL, with other technologies yet. Because they are too expensive per Megawatt, .. right? At first there were three pots, but in that pot tidal would have had to compete against floating offshore wind.

The SNP intervened and build up pressure, somehow boxing through the ring-fenced budget. Again, to me the absolutely last reason why this company has still a teeny tiny chance of survival. It's definitely not BESS ..

> "£75 million has been allocated to emerging technologies, with £24 million ringfenced for floating offshore wind projects and £20 million ringfenced for tidal stream projects." https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/news/allocation-round-4-budget-confirmed

While they did say that this budget will amount to £300m over the next 15 year, which is still ALMOST NOTHING as you're aware, it's still better than nothing.

Yet, there's no mentioning in the current pot structure for AR5.

I can absolutely promise you that SAE is not going to get a contract in AR5 without such a ring-fenced project. There has to be such a budget over the next years, SAE has to be able to secure contracts every time to have the slightest chance of survival here because they need to lower the cost of their turbines and there's absolutely no chance that there's any investment coming from anywhere else.

This really explains why this forums is so quiet. I expected all the rage after there was not mentioning of the ring-fenced budget..

There is no word about a ring-fenced budget in AR5 - am I missing something?

No ring-fenced budget for tidal means SAE (likely) won't be able to secure a contract.

Last year, floating offshore wind was at £87/MWh whereas tidal stream was still at £175/MWh.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1103022/contracts-for-difference-allocation-round-4-results.pdf

Okay, for one, this is a terrible pot structure and SAE has no chance if this does not change.

Offshore wind was placed in its own pot last year because it was too cheap already compared to other technologies. But that still was not enough. They had to implement a ring-fenced budget for tidal energy - no mention about that in the latest publication.

If there's no ring-fenced budget for tidal, and if it has to compete with offshore wind, SAE won't never, evver get a contract next year. So either they change that or it's probably the death sentence for this company.

And I'm not being dramatic here - there HAS TO BE govermental support for this or there won't be more "this" anymore.

You're an interesting individual as your previous comments/threads suggest:

Title: Uskmouth, 26 Jul 2022 20:42
So much talk about meygen, its uskmouth that's going to make the real money.

Title: Uskmouth, 25 Aug 2022 10:34
Uskmouth planning permission is really just a formality. The traffic issues will only be while the site is under construction.

Title: Uskmouth, 13 Dec 2022 12:35
As the internals of uskmouth have already been removed for scrap I can't see how this project could ever be revived.

Well, buying a coal plant that you can't use.. does not make a great investment

I posted this the other day: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=SAE&share=Simec-Atlantis&thread=49A29236-EA43-45F8-BACE-AD262C5B56B2

Mainly because it's ironic that now they have to fire up coal plants which are much dirtier than what Uskmouth would have supposed to be.

I highly doubt we'll ever hear of the conversion project at Uskmout again. You can't sell this to people: "Let's restart this old coal plant". You'll get so much resistant, it's very political and the opportunity is simply gone imo.

Just forget about it and move on.

What do you think why they withdrawed? The project was called in. SAE pulled the plug before the decision was made public but if you followed the process you'd know that it would've gotten denied.

The connversion project was blocked by the Welsh Government. It did not go well with the national strategy to shut down coal plants. At this point it gets political: Turn back on a retired coal plant.

The UK electricity grid operator has instructed two emergency-use coal generators to stand down after freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall in parts of the country provided the first big test of the network’s resilience this winter.

As the icy weather was accompanied by low wind speeds, the National Grid Electricity System Operator had ordered two “contingency” coal-fired generators to be on standby in the early hours of Monday. This was the first time the ageing plants had been put on standby, since the government asked their owners to delay their permanent closure to help mitigate the energy crisis this winter.

It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

https://www.ft.com/content/f7f97bd6-45f7-40c7-904f-0bb2e5862db2

I started to ignore this. Or at least I am trying to. In the end it does not matter. Let them speculate, let them pump. I mean, if they managed to pump it 10x short time I probably wouldn't even bead XD but we bot know this company has some way to go. 2024 until financial close. Why on earth does this take so freaking long? And then waiting time for 14 to 19 turbines. That one I get I guess. In between I hope there will be AR5 secured, revenue going up and some other minor good news. However, until SAE can show a route to profitability, anything else is short term speculation or a simple bet. I am betting long term. Got burned so far and the some.. But let's see where this goes. It's the only investment I have with a pin on it. The only investment I won't sell no matter what. Not saying this is particularly smart. It's just something I decided before placing my long term bet.

I totally feel you :D

Really? I barely noticed.

@Strangy I understand you but .. don't mind those people. SP might go up short time which gives some the opportunity to leave the train at a better valuation. Some of those traders might even pocket some money but who cares. If you're a LTH, for whatever reason, just lean back and enjoy the show - whatever it ends up being.

How do we interpret the following:

"SAE received an initial cash consideration for the sale of £0.5m and will receive a deferred cash consideration of up to €0.5m contingent on Proteus achieving financial close of the Raz Blanchard project."

I've always seen Raz Blanchard as a TIGER project so to me it seems as if Proteus is taking over that part.

Previously I stated that there's no guarantees that Proteus grabs their own sites and then competes with SAE - maybe even in the CfD schema. This would be close to a worst case scenario.

However, I admit that I don't know because I don't understand because their comms are terrible here.

Or am I missing something? Can somebody explain?