Member Info for mister_tidal

That being said: Maybe there is enough money and the other projects aren't able to consume the entire pot-money.

I think the budget is not out yet..

Howerver, I doubt we can rely on that..

@Mehmet66 I'm just not sure how they're supposed to be able to secure a contract given their current outlook on the strike price. Of course it's possible that the lack of insight does not allow us to be a bit more optimistic here but I doubt that SAE is going to be able to come even close below £100/MHw (last time it was ~£175/MHw).

If you look at this: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1124052/cfd_ar5_core_parameters.pdf

You'll see that tidal and wave have the highest administrative strike price at £202 and £245 respectively.

How are they supposed to compete against all the other technologies in the pot?

@mcco I guess your web scraper is going to require some additional sentiment detection. XD

Something to brighten up the spirit: https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy/comments/zx6fc0/renewable_energy_im_a_big_fan/

But yeah, I feel you.

The big question is going to be what's going to happen with MeyGen. It's the only thing left for SAE to consolidate atm. Their debt is just a massive problem and the simply need funding.

Let's wait until March and see if there going to be another ringfenced budget ..

Oh, is that why you posted in the wrong thread? :'D

This forum here is just not built for conversation-based discussions. In reddit you can reply to a comment and reply to that comment and so on.. That's just not possible here. Besides that, we can add tags/flairs to posts which can be filtered as well. On top of that it could be a place where information about SAE gets collected - assuming the subreddit attracts people who post there. I am going to try and share news in the future there of course.

I don't know about you guys, but I am really getting tired of this 2009-ish, outdated forum and the way we can comment to other people comments.
For that reason I've created a subreddit r/SimecAtlantisEnergy - I don't know if there's a lot of people here who are on reddit but in case there are, maybe we can start discussing over there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy

Best regards.

So.. our garage band got itself a new base player and he brought some beers to practice? It's nice but I'll shrug my shoulders anyway.

Well, doesn't really add anything to what I've been saying all day.

Totally. And I'm on the same page. I wouldn't be here if Id think that tidal has its place and a good chance for becoming a provider of a baseload which solar and wind simply can't provide.

But, as with every new technology in the energy sector, it requires some heavy lifting which only the public can fund. Right now there's simply no money in it for private investors.

And like you said, I wish somebody could just tell me what these candle and crayon charts mean. Is it an upside down dying flag? Or a flickering candle stick?

Like I said, they always got tiny bits of funding. They always kept them barely alive. They already sold their tidal division. Not because they are "proud to let that tiny bird fly" but because they can't afford it anymore. They need regular injections or else they go bancrupt. Hey have millions in debt and barely revenue. With 80 employees with £30k/year they need perhaps something around £2.4m/year just to pay their employees. But they have other operating costs and a pile of debt to repay. Now try to build another £12m turbine..

Dear mister_tidal,

The Contracts for Different team are currently developing AR5 auction parameters. This, fundamentally, requires careful analysis of the technology pipeline available for AR5 against our legal obligation to ensure the auction round is competitive. We are still considering the appropriate parameters for all technologies, including for Tidal Stream and Wave, and are taking into account evidence we have heard from stakeholders. Full parameters will be published in the Budget Notice in March 2023.

Kind regards,

BEIS Contracts for Difference Team
Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy

For the record: Not even Uskmouth would've changed any of this. It would've only been useful to pay back that crippling debt. But nothing more.

Yes. It's that simple. There's either HEAVY governmental subsidy for tidal stream energy or that's it.

Please tell me you didn't think there's going to be private investment from somewhere.. or that SAE can do this just because they are an "awesome company".

This entire thing is 100% dependent on governmental support and it really feels like you didn't know that. It does not take a lot of math to realize that this technology is miles over miles behind established technologies. It's at the stage where the public has to decide it wants or it does not want to support this technology.

SAE somehow managed to stay alive over the years because they always get a few bread crumbs before they are starving. Last year they got tiny bit from the last slice but that's not nearly enough for a starving industry.

Anybody on this board who thinks that this company has any chance of survival without CfD (or some sort of revenue support and/or funding that is similar to this) is a complete fool and did not pay attention or do their homework.

So if this all sounds "unbelievable" or "new" to you, I invite you to dig a bit deeper. Or at least question why there's only approximately 500 to 1000 traders alive who know about this stock and why the market cap is sub £20m.. for a company that has £53m in debt and an Debt to Equity ratio of 600%. I don't even know how they're doing it but there's a point where we should RECEIVE money for holding SAE shares (that last past is a joke of course).

You really seem to have no clue what you're invested in, buddy. :'D

Are you serious? As I explained, we only got that contract because there was a ring-fenced budget. Without it there won't be another contract.

And yes, £300m is literally nothing. Those £300m are what the UK is willing to pay for tidal energy over the next 15 years and it only gets us additional 28MW. And, as I stated, we need 1,000MW for cost to drop below £100/MWh.

I really can't tell if you're trolling or if you really not able to follow me here.

It's like your not even trying to comprehend what was saying. Your comment is not highlighting a "strategy" or anything. It's like you're just typing from the top of your head without touching or thinking about anything that is being said previously. You just type write down a generic sentence that has nothing to do with anything really or touches the issues being raised. And I am the fool trying to educate.

Oh and please let me say this, just to give you a feel for the scale we're talking about: £300m over 15 years is nothing. We're not talking about a few hundred million Pounds that the UK government has to invest, we are talking BILLIONS of Pounds that are necessary to make this technology competitive and viable. You can tell that £300m is nothing by looking at the number of MW (spoiler: just around 40MW) that are going to be deployed thanks to AR4.

Okay.. "certainty".. the only way out would be if they put in so much money into Pot 2 that ther's something left for SAE but I kinda doubt that this is going to happen.

Maybe they'll update the schema or announce a fenced budget in a few months from now but you all know how things went in the past. There was a revenue support schema in place which the government scraped, throwing tidal off the rails.. then they invented Contracts for Difference, a schema not made for experimental technologies. It is supposed to DELIVER ENERGY AT THE LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE - it was never meant to support technologies like tidal stream energy in their early stages.

But there has also never been an alternative, something that has been critizised by the industry in the past. Last year's fenced budget was the first glimpse of real hope for the tidal business and it was only possible after pressure from the SNP. The budget for AR4 was low, but it was fenced and, as you know, SAE secured a contract. But it's simply not enough and the UK simply HAS TO continue investing in this technology. We have to see 1GW (= 1,000 MW) and more in order to drop below £100/MWh and this is still not competitive.

I'm just saying this because I feel like not everybody is aware of this fact..

So.. without additional absolutely dedicated support for tidal stream energy, there is no hope for this company. You can try to convince me otherwise but please shut up about BESS :D :D :D

Talk is cheap and I only believe it when I see it.

> " If SAE doesn't have a chance, which project has a chance?"

Literally any other project that is cheaper in Pot 2 for example an floating offshore wind project at £87/MWh and not £175/MWh.

Just to be clear: You win a CfD by providing a sealed bid to the schema. The lowest bidder gets the contract. This is why tidal has to be ring-fenced .. it simply can't compete yet against other technolgies because it is nowhere near the "economics of scale" benefits.

> ".. an additional consent for 52MW which is eligible to be bid into future CFD Allocation Rounds."

They can bid all they want if other projects come in at a lower strike-price, they won't get a contract. If the current pot structure does not change and does not provide a dedicated budget for tidal, SAE won't succeed. That's basically a certainty.