Member Info for mister_tidal

Blindfolded, and without looking at any charts, I've found that the SP is going to continue to rise and then fall.

Well, to be more precise, I suspect that the SP will just gradually drop when self-declared long term holders fold out of fear for their investment. I'm not judging here, just pointing it out. There's not a lot of institutional investors left and afaik, nobody working at the company owns a piece of it. Oh, unless that guy who's now the CEO of Proteus (some wounds never heal).

If, by any chance, there's some news like the 4th turbine going in the water and maybe, a ring-fenced budget is promised in CfD AR5 for next year this month, then we'll see further gains which, if there's not a continuous stream of positive news, will evaporate over time the same way it did the past 10 years.

The simple reason for this is the fact that BESS is not what pulls SAE out of the waters yet and it's still not clear when, if at all, SAE becomes profitable. I wouldn't even dare to invest another minute in trying to figure this out because there's just so much politics and even more unknowns - it's ridiculously pointless trying to estimate different scenarios for SAE because this stock remains 99.9% pure speculation for the time being.

That's just my opinion.

It's a playground. Or.. see it this way.. SAEs market cap is are around £12m. Since 15% belongs to institutions, that leaves us with £10.2m. I have no idea what the average retail investor has invested but let's assume everyone is at roughly £1k to £2k current valuation. That would mean there's just around 510 to 1,100 guys like us throwing some pocket change into the pit.

Until "smart money", or somebody with a significant larger wallet than all of ours combined, steps in and deems that he "likes the stock", I guess any "mooning" we may or may not see is going to be based on said speculation - or not.

Cheers.

OHS same here. Came because of Uskmouth but only because I saw it as the backbone that SAE needed to fund tidal. It's the tidal market which is worth billions. MeyGen alone should be in the 100s of Gigawatt hours per year but that's still nothing. I expected SAE to be able to produce Terawatt hours of electricity if they were able to secure and build things like MeyGen, Raz Blanchard, Japan, Indonesia etc. All those projects they were supposedly working on back then and all this would have been possible if Uskmouth didn't fail and the UK government wasn't asleep at the wheel because it was them who cut off the revenue support at the worst possible time. Now the investment necessary to bring tidal to the market has only increased as we know (relatively speaking).

Yes, there are other companies nowadays but I really don't see how they really compete with SAE. As previously stated, other companies use different technologies e.g. Minesto or Orbital. I really don't see them overlap when it comes to potential sites. SAEs turbines are a different breed. Orbitals turbines block passages. And Minesto.. idk.. it's the sea.. I just to't see how underwater kites are a good idea but even if.. it's not really a competition for SAE at least for the time being.

Also... having the experience to deploy grounded turbines, what would keep them from building floating stations like the ones produces by Orbital? How would that not be possible or even an issue?

Apparently they "had to" sell ATES. I just fail to see how all this is worth £0.5m while at the same time SAE has to carry all the debt it had build up during the time of research. This is why selling ATES at that price feels borderline shady to me. Almost criminal. But maybe I just don't have the brains to understand all this.

Nice. Reminds me of the days when SAE built tidal stream turbines.

OHS: Like sma43 said they gave the IP away for pocket change. I find it hard to believe that this division isn't worth much more after having a decade of experience and know how.

> "They've offloaded a division that made a pre-tax profit of approx. £0.4m in 2021 .."

Okay? I don't know how they measure this profit etc but I know that one turbine costs around £10m at the moment. At some point they might be cheap enough to actually make a profit from that business.

> "2. SAE received around £0.5m for the sale and will receive a further deferred cash consideration of up to €0.5m if/when Proteus achieve financial close of Raz Blanchard."

So a second spoon of peanuts. Raz Blanchard has a theoretical capacity in the Gigawatts and SAE is now going to see 21% of the profits instead of 100% - and for what?

Besides, the only difference between SAE and Proteus, besides the fact that one can build turbines whereas the other can't, is, that one has a site and the other doesn't. Now... what happens it Proteus manages to get their own sites for tidal stream deployments? Are there any guarantees that they won't start competing with SAE in future CfD? Honestly: I don't know, but that's why I am skeptical.

Ad 4 and 5: Nova and SAEs "agreement". Whatever happened to that .. I don't know. And regarding Proteus, yeah, I'm glad that they were at least awake enough to secure support for MeyGen. But what after that?

Yet, I'm still sceptical. I won't forget the fact that they chipped away their tidal division. Something I still can't quite make sense of.

BESS should help to keep the company alive but it won't be enough.

The thing I'm currently waiting for is the announcement for the pot structure in the CfD AR5. If they keep the ring fenced budget for tidal, then I'd be rather confident that SAE can secure another contract next year which should bring another 30MW or something to MeyGen.

Top that up with a financial close for the AR4 contract and I can see the price go up.

And well, I don't even dare to dream, should institutional investors ever take a piece of SAE at some point the drinks are on me.

Downdraft said it. There's a number of disadvantages to floating devices. I do not think however, that these two companies are actually competing. Mainly because sites for tidal stream energy have to be very specific and something tells me that Orbital and SAE won't have a lot of overlap when it comes to potential sites.

So, if anything, I can imagine (and hope) that there might be synergies which allow to reduce the overall cost. And if they only share the cost for vessels and crews.. every Pound saved here can help reduce the cost of TSE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-wave-tidal-energy-market-143000439.html

That's a bummer knowing that we had 13.something GWh/y some time ago and the 4th turbine is still not in the water.

But we'll, it's all wait and see now..

760 MWh could be approx 1000MWh with the 4th turbine which would be 12GWh/year.

One the additional 28MW are deployed we should see 67. 8GWh/y perhaps more.

67.8 GWh/y * 175 £/MWh = 11.9m £/y

in revenue. Now the big question is, what are the operating costs per year for this and at what scale will SAE become cash positiv?

It's not that there hasn't been things brewing. It's that nothing has been delivered for years now. Maybe SAE allows for some speculation at this point. I personally won't add to my position because I maxed-out what I am willing to risk a while ago and I am deep red. It's a different story for somebody who's not in yet and who is not only willing to wait a few years, but also is able to risk losing that investment.

More visibility like this should help the industry. Really seems like tidal gain momentum in the media.

It has to be said that we've seen this in the past already. Maybe this time is different?

@tidal_lover thanks for the link.

It's kind of a signature move for SAE that even after such a statement its share price does what it did.

Did he leak some unofficial information on accident here? And what does it mean?

I know that there is work being done besides CfD to get tidal the funding they need but I am not aware of any mechanisms yet. I didn't look as I've written this stock off for the next years. However, if "green lit" means they get additional funding my sentiment would definitely change. But then again, wouldn't the SP already, perhaps not "moon" , but at least "town church"?

tbh I don't know how much the next ring-fenced budget will be for tidal next year but I doubt that it will be enough for 150 turbines. This year they got 28MW. Guess we can be happy if they get something from 30 to 50MW by next year. Should they succeed, then I'd start to talk about a light at the end of the tunnel. If I wasn't already in, I would probably gamble on the stock for fun but from my position.. never ever.

https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/publications/draft-allocation-round-5-timeline

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tLKbpcZ4U3M

Can't watch it outside of the UK unfortunately but sounds great.

Seriously, I feel violently disturbed by the fact that you didn't got what I was saying. I even took the time and posted you THIS LINK (https://github.com/search?q=stocks+trading+bot) which, even in its URL literally says "stocks trading bot"..

> I Just love your conspiracy theory of these magical bots that troll the boards! I'm very real (Clue: You can tell this from my premium membership)

Omfg can you please try to read what I am writing? How are you the one laughing if you can't even comprehend what I am saying. Like.. at all. I am not talking about chat bots, I am talking about trading bots.

As in: If you, with your eyes, are able to "recognize patterns". Why on earth would you do any of this manual instead of writing a program and make bank? Please. Tell us why you have to do this by hand!

And Gend, just post whatever you want. I don't mind. Just don't mind people calling out bull**** when they see it.

lol.. He really thought I took him for a chatbot. Fcking genius..

Oh, I forgot to mention: The only way to beat bots short-time is by colluding against them, in other words, to artificially pump a, let's say, small cap stock or get lucky. I repeat: If you were able to exploit prices in a systematic manner, write a freaking program.