Member Info for mister_tidal

Would be a weird thing imo having a minority stake but keep the IP. Who would buy out a company under these conditions?

Are you making a case for the company staying alive or how it still got somewhat the same potential than last week? Obviously, SAE should survive for another year now and I say that without knowing the sum of the investment. This whole BESS project is that bird in your hand others talked about. I don't see any potential here compared to the turbines.

:D

@Strangy86 You're right and I can't say that this news took me by surprise. I was actually kind of expecting something like this but I was hoping that it won't. I was hoping they get some special 0%-renewable-tidal-energy loan which allows them to inch out of debt turbine by turbine. But okay. Let's call it a day and wait for tomorrow.

SORRY: I meant to say "Hopefully I am NOT" of course. It's so annoying that we cannot edit messages.

@JUSTDAVE2020 Yes, CfDs are a 15 years price guarantee for energy producers. SAE got one for ~£175/MWh which means, assuming a 1.5MW turbines produces around 4.1 GW/h per year, that such a turbine may not cost more than 15 * 4.1 * 175 ~ £10.7m or else it's not profitable (note that this is just an "educated" estimate). But I don't quite understand why you point that out. Because not SAE needs that money now. You'll soon here things like "We need proper funding to provide support for the way to market" - or something like that. But it's Proteus you'll hear that from.

@Money_nvr_sleeps We can now wait. My whole point just was to share my view, that SAE is not in the turbine busiess anymore which was, at least in my view, not only the whole point of the company but also what looked like a big opportunity for one whoe invests during those times of high uncertainty. It seems like some private equity investor thought the same and just scooped up that part of the company right under our nose. That part is no speculation, that's what we know already. All I see is a few crumbs left to SAE no matter what they got because it won't replace what could've been if SAE kept this technology. "Vertical integration" if you will. It's faction breadcrumb vs loaf of bread.

Let's see who's right. Hopefully I am. I will apologize if I'm way off the mark. Let's hope I have to..

¯\_(?)_/¯

@Money_nvr_sleeps Yeah, that's kind of how they try to frame it. That's management-speech which is why we have to look at the information and put together the puzzle. Idk why they play it that way, but usually there's a reason behind that.

There's a few more things I could try to project here like the fact SAE has to buy turbines from Proteus now, that's still very expensive because after all, all this is still experimental and it will stay that way until they can enter serial production. How's SAE going to finance MeyGen in the future? Through MeyGen itself..? Well.. that's going to be rather slow. In the meantime Proteus might jump from one project to the next. Like Orbital Marine Energy and Nova Innovation.

I have to think of the Wirecard scandal and their last official statement before the house of cards went down. They stated that they seem to have become the victim of a fraud even though they were the fraudsters themselves [1]. Don't think it's impossible that some people have now taken the opportunity to money-grab this company and its technology. I'm definitely watching out for this one too because all of this pretty much smells like such a move.

Mark my words: Proteus might start bidding in the next CfD AR5 round. They might do so for all these projects that they are working on atm and all those projects that they'll get in the future. Idk what SAE is going to do in the meantime.

If you're happy what that bird in your hand, that's fine. I was aiming for an army of birds with SAE, if I may reuse that metaphor. But let's wait and see if there even is a bird.

@JUSTDAVE2020 I do admit that most of what I am saying right now is mostly conjecture. However, MeyGen is just a 400MW and with the right investment, Proteus might overtake SAE very quickly in MWs deployed. Not only that, they'd also benefit from selling turbines to SAE for MeyGen etc and until somebody tells me otherwise, they might even compete in the CfD schema. I really don't see what's left of SAE now.

While you are right, that any country or company can start building their own turbines right now, SAE, sorry, Proteus, has a head start. After all, they have experience with this and it's likely that they can drive down cost faster than others. UK seems to want to become a leader in TSE which means they are funding this. So, there's a chance that most companies will fail to struggle here to compete with Proteus. It's like how solar is in Chinas today. Other's just can't really compete anymore. That's what I was hoping for SAE but this is probably gone now. Idk the future. Maybe some other country invests $10B into their country. But it's unlikely so my bet used to be on SAE.

Anyway. I am going to shut up now and wait for news. I guess I made my point by now but for the record: I do see that the share price might go up if SAE received a significant amount of money etc. I just think they lost their 100x long-term potential.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/wa

I understand, but the thing is that SAE seems to have given away all their projects as well. Except MeyGen. This is what people seem to overlook here or I am getting something wrong.

From https://proteusmr.com:
"Proteus is now the majority shareholder in Normandie Hydroliennes, which aims to deploy a 12 MW pilot array in 2025, as part of the EC’s target of 1GW of marine energy by 2030. Following the successful installation and commissioning of an AR 500 pilot turbine in the Goto Islands in Japan, Proteus hopes to secure terms for the installation of a AR 1100 to be commissioned in 2024. Proteus’ long association with MeyGen is set to continue following MeyGen’s successful bid in the recent AR4 CfD auction, which will facilitate the installation of a further 30 MW of tidal turbine capacity by 2025."

@Strangy86 No, I didn't see you as a deramper. I always found your comments to be down to earth and realistic. I shared most of your points and, as I stated previously, I literally got on that board because I got annoyed by those rosy-eyed glasses.

I wasn't aware that you entered bc of Uskmouth. I mean, I did too in a way but not because of Uskmouth itself. I was rather thinking that Uskmouth will help SAE get their tidal sector going. After all, investing early in a "disruptive" (don't like that word) technology that can be scaled can promise high returns.

I agree that we don't have all the information yet but I'd argue that we already have enough.

Is it wrong to say that SAE is not in the tidal stream turbines anymore?
Is it wrong to say that the tidal stream turbine part of SAE is now removed from the market?
By a private investor who bought this part from SAE?

The fact is, we don't know nothing. Wo have this information already.

I absolutely agree with you on the part of the finances. How could SAE have ever carried that burden? They couldn't.

So that's where we at. SAE had to sell. It's likely that their clock was ticking and time wasn't their friend either.

Yes, I am a strong sell now because I think that my money, if any of if will ever come back, is better off in another company that is in a scalable business which SAE might not be anymore.

That doesn't mean to "sell now". It's not unlikely that the share prices goes up after they announce a significant amount of money coming in after this deal. After all, they just sold something and I hope it brought them in something.

But after that.. I do not believe in their sub-coal business. Could it make some revenue? Yeah, maybe. But none of their projects or things they are currently involved in have the flavor of a technology that could make this company to a +1B market cap company or anything like that.

I might change my mind if they have a huge stake in Proteus but I am battered and bruised by this company and I just can't believe in anything good coming out of this company anymore.

I am aware that we don't know a lot but from the update [1] on their website, I think we know enough to paint a picture and that picture is probably not as complicated as some people hope for it to be.

SAE OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET

I want to start with the key phrase by Drew Blaxland, former Director or Engineering and new CEO of Proteus:

> "The formation of Proteus and the injection of private equity capital will give both companies the focus and means to build a pathway to affordable tidal stream power."

Only three words in that sentence are relevant here and it's "private equity capital" because it tells us that some entity wanted to invest in tidal stream energy technology but also, as it seems, take the company off the stock market. Or at least from the alternative investment market (AIM). Whatever is left of SAE remains there of course.

For those who didn't pay attention, this is what happened here. A private investor bought out that tidal turbine producing part of SAE, called it Proteus, and moved on. There's no debating about this, because that's what we can already see given the information provided.

MINORITY STAKE IN PROTEUS

We know that SAE has now a minority stake in that company. This, effectively, removes SAE as a developer of tidal stream turbines. This won't be their market anymore and it's told by this single sentence:

> "SAE is pleased to announce that it has agreed to the sale of a majority stake in its Advanced Tidal Engineering and Services division (ATES)."

but it's also telling if we look at the Proteus [2] website which, if I didn't know better, could as well be SAEs new website. But it isn't.

What hurts the most is knowing that SAE has only a minority stake in Proteus, and something tells me it won't be 49%. The fact that they gave such a sloppy update on such an incredibly large structural change for the company lets me believe that they secured less than 20%.

EXPECTATIONS

Due to the lack of details we simply don't have relevant information about the deal. There is a chance that SAE might have received a significant amount of money. I have not the slightest idea what price tag their ATES division should have had but for SAE I hope/expect that this was at least a deal that allows them to pay off some debt. Again, it's their silence over these details which is nerve wrecking. So, I expec SAE to tell us exactly what they got for leaving the tidal turbine business. We can only hope that this, in some way, increases the value of the company.

SUMMARY

If you invested into SAE, it's likely that you did so because you were hoping SAE would be able to build and sell their tidal turbines at some point globally. That's not their business anymore. We can talk how they are now in the energy park business (MeyGen) and how that might turn out for them, but they are not selling turbines anymore.

[1]: https://simecatlantis.com/sae-tidal-division-secures-new-investment
[2]: https://proteusm

What's your point?

Who cares about MeyGen?! It's just a measly 400MW power plant and that's it!

Proteus on the other hand can sell turbines globally to anybody and kick-off projects on their own. Again, compare Proteus to a company like Vestas.

Proteus is SAE now. Tell me how I'm wrong?

I guess, the company we invested in has been sold to management and is now called Proteus.

Those people who, for whatever reason, call this an ingenious idea because SAE saves now cost on wages I'd like to ask if they are aware that this comes at the price of now having a minority stake of that part of the company that we all, I presume, invested in in the first place?

I'd like to compare SAE to a company like Vestas Wind Systems [1].

Vestas is a company that manufactures and services wind turbines. They have around 30,000 employees and they make some £15B/y in revenue.

Here are the things SAE has in common with this very successful technology company:

- they can be traded on the stock market

And here are the things Proteus has in common with Vestas:

They
- manufacture,
- service
- and install turbines for energy generation and
- they make money in doing so.

I seriously hate being the doomsday guy and I really hope I am wrong about this but I have very little reason right now to believe we're looking at something else here.

They simply can't be THAT incompetent at comms. I am summoning Occam's razor.

Maybe the RNS, if there even is one, makes me look like an erratic fool but I'd truly be happy to swallow that pill.

[1]: https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/VESTAS-WIND-SYSTEMS-A-S-121357143/unternehmen/

These are the right questions. And it's impossible to answer thanks to SARs comms. At this point I am afraid hower that this might not just be "poor" comms but that what it is. They potentially screwed over investors by selling the valuable part of the business off to management.

We know that SAE won't see more than 50% of the profits. The question is how small that number truly is because now that Proteus is the world leader in tidal energy technology, and not SAE anymore, our shares might be worthless soon.

If im emotional about anything then it's my investment that might have just evaporated but I don't know because they don't tell.

.. or maybe it wasn't a "smart" move but instead an "unfortunately necessary" one?

Either way, the lack of information is disturbing to say the least, and I do not give them the benefit of the doubt here. Especially not this time!

The thing that they sold away was, at least to me, the very thing what made Simec Atlantis to what it is. I don't know about you guys, but it was the very part I wanted to invest in. Knowing that SAE has only a "minority" stake in that company is already infuriating and nobody seems to care about the fact that we know this already.

I'm sorry if I'm "not getting it", because I really don't. And to top that off, we all shrug the shoulder about the fact that their minority stake could as well be just 1%? Just because SAE has an "award winning legal team" it's now totally fine to leave out that crucial piece of information? After this kind of news? They leave us "Walking Dead Season 6 Cliff Hanger"-level guessing about whether or not SAE is still that company we invested in yesterday? You think that's a mistake? Or acceptable?

Well, okay I guess.. I guess then let's #hodl together or maybe even #buythedip, drink a pint and wait for the whole thing to blow over and SAE releases that RNS with all those non-important details for shareholders. If they do. Because "maybe" they don't.

Can't be "that" important, right..?

What you say sounds reasonable but it there's still very important open questions. One is certainly the size of SAEs stake at Proteus.

Regarding wages: I don't really understand. What exactly is the problem with wages? There's always somebody who has to pay for them. The question is whether or not you can generate returns. All we know is, that SAE is going to get less than 50% of what selling turbines brings in.

Whatever code you attach to this company, if you look at their website I feel like I am back in 2018/2019. It's as if I was looking at SAEs old website. The same promises, the same projects at least this time I know that there's a CfD behind that. I also know that TIGER has progressed and I also suspect that Japan is very likely going to order that AR-something.

So, Proteus has apparently become the company that I thought SAE is.

SAE is calling this an "investment". What part of this is an investment? Is it possible that the founding of Proteus was some kind of condition from an investor that we don't know of yet?

Don't you think it's worrying that SAE did not share any details on this yet? Why would they hold back so much information? I mean, they can't just leave it at that, right?

I mean, let's be real here. Having bad comms is one thing, but not being able to provide detailed information on what this means for the company is just another level. I'm not a nervous daytrader that goes crazy just because the share price goes down but it just surprises me how little they seem to care about how investors might react to this kind of news.

I honestly thing it's already revealing enough what we can see on the Proteus site.
The only truly missing information is the size of SAEs stake in that company and we already know it's less than 50%.

Right, Tidal_lover..

The same way not a "war", but a "special military operation", it's also not a "selling off the most important asset and intellectual property of SAE" it's an "investment".

I am new to the board but I am not new to SAE. I am holding this company for a good 3 years now.

@Strangy86 I admire your for keeping a cool head here. For me it's just a chunk of money that's (probably) gone for good now. I am an adult, I knew the risk etc but the thing here is that, at least in my view, there's (probably again) somebody to blame here. While SAE did not provide a lot of information, I think I can add those numbers together and infer what this tweet really means.. unfortunately..

:D Okay, fair enough.

Well, I can't speak for him but I am not sure if he was serious.

I am aware that we probably can't do anything here.

But if they indeed betrayed us, this should at least have consequences. The entire sector is very political right now and screwing over thousands of investors should at least backfire on that level.