Member Info for mister_tidal

I remember that there used to be a project description on SAEs website which mentioned some project in Indonesia. I don't know if this is the same project or something else, but it's just incredibly sad to see that the "market leader" in tidal stream energy is not participating in this project: https://www.offshore-energy.biz/hydrowing-inks-deal-for-tidal-energy-projects-in-southeast-asia/

@Mehmet66 Well said. It's good that this discussion arrives at the political arena as well because it's the public who has to fund this technology (as it did with probably almost all other forms of energy as well) and therefore it's still highly political. Same thing with Uskmouth but let's leave that for a moment.

As you say, SAE has a theoretical chance of delivering high returns - it's obvious that a lot of people do hope so but to those I can only recommend to manage their expectations.

Unless this sector gets an immediate funding in the hundreds of millions, this is going to take a while..

Well, to be fair, it's not just SAEs fault or the Gupta scandal etc. They have been cut off of funding which was, especially in retrospect, a big mistake. Tidal stream energy could already be much closer to 0.5GW or maybe 1GW if they didn't cut them off of funding a few years ago when they introduced the CfD schema.

From the report [1]:

"Government support for TSE has been varied. Prior to 2016, several sites were awarded revenue support via the Renewables Obligation (RO) scheme. This changed in 2016: the RO was replaced by the Contracts for Difference (CfD) mechanism and TSE had to compete with more established technologies. As a result, In subsequent years TSE was unable to access revenue support, limiting deployment to single turbine demonstration projects."

So, while I criticize their comms today etc, I do recognize that there were many things that simple were not in SAEs hand. After all, they delivered MeyGen Phase 1 and they were able to prove the technology.

What's just annoying me is that they do not try to influence public opinion. It's even too much to ask to have an active Twitter account etc. Imo they have to put TSE on the radar and keep up the pressure. It's a political game and they seem to have become a rather quiet voice over time and even more so intransparent.

[1]: https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Tidal-stream-cost-reduction-report-T3.4.1-v1.0-for-ICOE.pdf

I see. No, I'm actually not really an active trader so to speak. SAE is that worn out t-shirt I cannot wear in public anymore but I still own it because I was running around with it at that one awesome concert.

I've lost quite a sum of money on SAE (but that was "gambling" money if you will), although I haven't sold yet. However, I do care and don't care about the stock so I am carelessly passionate about it. Idk if that makes sense. It's like slacking off at work while watching a youtube video. "Zeitvertreib" and maybe a bit of a hobby at this point (you know, because it costs more money than it makes). :D

How's it going guys? -61.57% for me. I can show you the number AIM stocks I own that did not make me more than -20% with one hand by making a fist.

I guess is this is what you get when you put private messages behind a pay-wall.

Even if I'm running into the danger of revealing myself as an ignorant person but: What does "BB" stand for?

One very intersting finding is also:

"Arguably the main finding from this study is the £49-55/MWh breakeven tidal stream
LCOE by 2050. While certain aspects of the tidal technology would warrant a cost
premium (for example the high predictability), from a purely economic perspective this
is the level that the tidal technology must reach to start to reduce the costs of the
overall energy system. For a 10GW deployment, this LCOE level could be reached by
2050 with a learning rate in the range 10-15%."

It's also (finally) stated that TSE does not lie about its LCOE as compared to wind & solar:

"When factoring in these additional system costs, BEIS estimated the LCOE of wind and
large scale solar to be 20-100% higher than their baseline estimates in some scenarios,
as shown in Figure 9 (the different scenarios represented by the blue diamonds)."

From the report:

"Larger rotor diameter and device rated power: Larger rotor diameter devices
have a larger swept area, improving energy capture. This can be augmented by
increasing device rated power which allows more energy to be captured at rated
flow speeds. Research from TIGER has calculated that LCOE could be reduced by
38% when considering 3MW, 26m rotor diameter turbines compared to 2MW, 20m
turbines [60]. This magnitude is reflected in other studies, for example Coles and
Walsh estimated that deploying AR2000 turbines at Meygen compared to AR1500
would reduce LCOE by 20%."

Oh, btw, it's mentioned in Table 1 on Page 9 (PDF page 16).

I find it particularly interesting that the last mention of the AR2000 on SAEs website appears to be from 2018 and that there is basically no mention at all about the AR3000 yet it appears as "in development" in the CATAPULT report [1] about the cost reduction trajectory of tidal stream energy.

It just amazes me that they seem to know something that I'd expect to be able to research myself as somebody who might consider to buy they stock. So what is going on here? Is SAE really so incapable of communicating news like that to anybody? Wouldn't it be an important piece of information what they think they can achieve with a turbine like that and what it would mean to efficiency and ROI?

Or maybe it's just a typo and I'm angry for no reason. Yes. That must be it.

[1]: https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Tidal-stream-cost-reduction-report-T3.4.1-v1.0-for-ICOE.pdf

https://www.reddit.com/r/RenewableEnergy/comments/y6ekrm/tidal_stream_energy_could_achieve_major_cost/

@Tidal_lower I can assure you that I am not Strangy86. My native language is German and I'd say a native speaker of English could probably tell if they looked closely. But, and I already stated this, I actually created an account here after seeing Strangy86's discussions with those "rosy glassed" people. I've been reading posts here for a while and got fed up too by posts that barely scratched the surface of this company and told us to be positive thinkers even though SAE has never been in a worse shape than today. Is there still an opportunity? Yes, yes it is. But, as Strangy86 also keeps pointing out, nobody knows how to finance that and what this means for existing shareholders. I may sound like him occasionally because I am sharing a lot of his views. Literally everything about SAE is speculative but now there's a ton of debt and an even bigger ton probably waiting (28MW). Simple as that. Yeah, I keep repeating myself.

Thanks for the link.

Comparing the old report from 2018 [1] to the new LCOE trajectory in the new report [2]. It appears that the new report shows us that tidal might be slightly more expensive nowadays than previously. I haven't red the entire report [2] yet but I will over the course of this week.

[1]: https://ore.catapult.org.uk/app/uploads/2018/11/Tidal-Stream-and-Wave-Energy-Cost-Reduction-and-Industrial-Benefit.pdf
[2]: https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Tidal-stream-cost-reduction-report-T3.4.1-v1.0-for-ICOE.pdf

?

Really? Their revenue has declined, debt has increased to £54.1m, their cash runway is less than one year, equity has dropped from £72m to £8m after selling Green Highland Renewables and scraping the Uskmouth project, anything they get from the BESS project is basically used to pay back debt and keep the lights on, nobody who works at the company buy the stock themselves, the director's board is constantly changing, they entire company is very, very quiet and only 3 out of 4 turbines are running 'till this day and nobody in this world can tell right now how this company is supposed to get the money needed to build 14 to 19 turbines for the 28 MW contract from the CfD AR4 without completely annihilating existing shareholders.

What on this holy earth are you even talking about?

Don't get too excited. There's a lot of articles and news that go back over a decade. Tidal and wave has always been a topic and there was always talk about it becoming the next big thing. 3-4 years ago I believed the time has come now. It didn't. Trust me, there are a lot more people like me.

There's still a chance of course that SAE can make it - especially now with the CfD in its bag - but, as stated in other posts, funding is still an open question and shareholder dilution as well.

@Deutscher Well, it's not about the words. It's about whether or not the person has anything more to provide than statements like "I believe" or "the stock would double" without laying out reasons why they think this is the case. And one RNS filled with empty promises won't suffice here.

@Strangy86 You said it. Imo everything that could be said has been said over the past few weeks on this board. I don't think there's a lot more information available (publicly). Until something leaks or gets released all we can do is wait for any kind of news.

@Tidal_Lover
Here, have another cool but meaningless video which mentions SAE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIYA6Jwwp4s but now what? Doesn't change where we currently are.

@Deutscher
Interesting to see how you critizise a valid argument ("Faith is religious") in a rather condescending tone yourself and even imply that you "hate" people who say something like that. ¯\_(?)_/¯

Then it's probably fair to "hate" people who just say things like "You either believe or you don't." Which, to me, really sounds religious. If you cannot bring forward arguments for buying or selling besides "I believe" then it has a certain "spice" of mindless pumping a stock which is simply not the purpose ot this board. I don't have to look in order to know that this is burried somewhere within the terms of use.

I am very certain that you don't just "believe" in tidal energy. I am sure you are convinced by its potential practicability and its advantages and that you did you fair share of research on this. At least I hope so. I can't tell you how many documents and studies I red before buying that stock. I even tried to do my own calculations on what the stock should be worth (pre Uskmouth crash) yet, as we all know, things turned out differently. My "believe" was constrained to "I believe that SAE will get the permission for Uskmouth and I believe that this will help them to keep the company alive for long enough until they get the fundin they need for tidal stream energy" but besides that, my decision was based on as many facts that were available to me. Hell, I even had Email contact with the Newport Council and the BEIS ministry in the past about Uskmout and the ring-fenced budget in CfD.

So.. I'm kind of allergic to people who have nothing more to offer than their faith. In fact.. it was the reason I created an account here. Disgusted by the amount of people who kept ignoring the facts.

After all, this board could be the part of someone's research and I, as Strangy96 presumably, won't participate in painting a picture that heavily deviates from the facts.

@Strangy86
I think comms is a big issue but perhaps there is not a lot to say. The next "big thing" will probably the answer to the question "how" they are going to be able to finance those 14 to 19 turbines (depending on the type) they need for the 28MW.

@all
Now, since we simply don't have any information on that, we can't do more than "hope" that there's going to be positive news and not too much dilution. At this point buying the stock can't be more than (almost) pure speculation since there's not a lot of information we can base any decision on (at least not that I am aware of).

I'm with Strangy86

If I didn't have shares already then I'd might buy some shares and speculate on the stock. Long term of course.

However, if we're being real here, nobody knows how SAE is going to be able to survive even with the CfD and if they do, how brutal existing shareholders will be diluted. Idk if they will biit how are they going to get the needed money? Are they even going to get it? Now as the UK has a lot of economic troubles as a whole.

Don't forget how political this all is. Something a lot of people tend to completely disregard and shrug off. Greetings from Uskmouth and the ring fenced budget which almost wasn't implemented. That was 2 weeks iirc before the deadline.