Member Info for mister_tidal

Oh, wow.. make sure you don't spend it all at once.. :'D
Unless you've just joined the party.. what is it now? -86% instead ot -87.2%?

Wake me up at +400% because even then the market cap is only going to be around £40m - which is still nothing for a company in the energy sector.

Okay?

That sounds great and all but it is rather naive imo. Under no circumstances would they sell an asset, if it is one, which could produce hundreds of millions of £ per year in revenue if it in fact was able to do that. Absolutely nobody would do that.

If this was such a promising technology/division then getting hands on money wouldn't be the problem. Apparently the government and/or the market have decided that it's not so promising after all and for that matter SAE is struggling as it is. There's absolutely no point in sweet-talking this fact. 50 GWh is nice but also absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. It's absolutely irrelevant in fact. The only thing that is relevant here is £/MWh and 150 £/MWh is too much. SAE has to lower this but how? There's simply not enough funding.

Also, you're completely missing out on the fact that there's no "ownership" presenent in the C-suite. Or at least not that I know of. The mindset and competence of a CEO is the absolute most important thing there is.

People like so say thing like "A CEO does not work 10x so why does he earn 10x?" - I have no answer to this but I can tell you the CEO is 100x more important than anybody else in the company. Every single part that moves in a company, especially in a small company like SAE, moves under the influence and/or because of the actions of the CEO. If this person (and his closest associates) are by any means incompetent or incapable, then the company will fall. This is particularly true for companies who have to fight an immense uphill battle as it's the case for SAE.

I don't know how Graham Reid operates. Maybe he's the best CEO we can wish for and we're just seeing it. But based on what I "can" see.. I'm pessimistic.

Losing is absolutely an option.

There's wind, solar and nuclear energy. Not a particular fan of the latter, but all these alternatives are much cheaper and it's by no means said that tidal stream energy is actually going to have a place in the energy mix.

I do believe it can have but I don't know if it will have.

1 GW of capacity is required to get to £100/MWh.. do the math - it's very expensive. Nobody knows if the UK government is going to put all that money on the table.

> WHY does noone want these shares AT THIS price?

Well, this is not really hard to answer..

The company has a lot of debt and no funding/opportunity to produce turbines at a scale to be competitive with other, much cheaper technologies.

The technology is simply not cheap enough and, as we all know, we need hundreds of millions in order to accomplish something that resembles a "competitive" price/MWh.

SAE, at this point, is far away from being an attractive investment at the moment. I joined the "club of bagholders" when I saw the Uskmout project.. thinking this could deliver additional revenue to SAE which would allow it to slowly expand their tidal stream business etc. I also expected much more support from the CfD. All that didn't happen.

Honestly: WHY would anybody want to buy this stock right now?

For me there's not even a point in selling my investment, which was around €15.000,- fyi, simply because the exchanges I am able to trade on have a spread that is laughable. But anyway, I knew it was risky and I knew I'd have to swallow 100% loss on this one. Definitely tought me a lesson.

That being said, I don't give up completely of course. MeyGen does have some future ahead and then there's BESS. But.. this company has a lot to do before any big institutions are going to touch this one.

Is there even A SINGLE INSIDER who owns stock of this company? As far as I know there's only institution and retail investors - not even Graham Reid owns a piece of the cake.

And you're right, there's basically zero coverage on this company except the occasional mentioning in various articles which touch the topic. But come on.. they sold their tidal division for half a mill.. what more do you need to know my friend? :'D

I have given it some more thought and after looking deep inside my soul, contemplating past decisions and realizing that I haven't seen a single insider actually buying shares from SAE I say:

Give them their stock options at current market valuation - it's ridiculous I know - but at this point what I need is them actually "own" the company themselves. I've been asking myself why no insider ever bought shares fromt hat company. Today I kinda know why..

Well, I totally agree on the fact that "lower ranking" employees should be incentiviced as well and that they should be offered some equity as well. However, I will say that I know that this is not a simple topic. There's a threshold that will motivate people. Anything below that won't do. This means you'll have to pick those key-employees careful and offer them something above that threshold. This means, unfortunately, that probably not everybody is going to get some. But then again, not everybody is a high-performer. Most people are just 9-to-5. Nothing wrong about that, it's just a fact that has to be considered.

Regarding the 10x salary of a CxO... well.. This really depends. If that person has founded the company.. then it's obviously his and if that guy owns 20, 50 or more % of the company: Good for him.

If that person didn't found that company but gets employed, like Graham Reid for example, then it will be a quesiton of "rarity" as I would describe it. Since every organization that is larger than just a bunch of people is build hierarchically, it's in the nature of the job that you're going to find less and less people with the insight and experience needed for those positions. This is not to say that these people work 60, 70, 80 or more hours per week, although some of them do, but it's not even the metric we're looking at.

Any idea how hard it is today to get a full-stack software developer with 10 years of experience who can replace a team of 5 people on their own below a salary of $55.000 ? Good luck. Now .. find a person you'd trust your multi-million dollar business on. How many people do you think you'd get if you put an ad in the local newspaper. Not applicants of course.. actual candidates that you'd consider.

Btw I am not trying to defend this kind of "capitalistic" system. There's a lot of things to hate about.. but it's easier to swallow if we can appreciate WHY it is the way it is. Only then we can understand that it's not so easy to come up with a solution which does not starve people from motivation as in "everybody gets the same". There has to be a balance.

Not sure if SAE has the right balance. Reading SAE's opinion is "that it is essential for the Company’s executive directors and key senior managers to be incentivised to drive the business forwards".

But then again.. I'm not sure if SAE has many engineers working for them anymore.. #Proteus

Well, we all certainly hope that SAE takes a significant amount of the next round but bear in mind: AR5 gave us 28MW so AR6 might end up just to be 50% of that. After all, I doubt that SAE is able to reduce cost if they have to keep building just a handful of turbines. That's not economics of scale. MeyGen Phase 3 is promoted as additional 52MW which means they don't need 0.5x of the previous budget.. they need 2.0x of it.

Now, before somebody states the obvious, AR5 is the first round that happened in succession just a year after the previous round. With that perspective and assuming the next AR6 sees again a ring-fenced budget of £10m like AR5, then the budget hasn't actually change, one could argue, but just distributed.

But here's the thing: Uncertainty is the last thing the sector needs and this indecisiveness back and forth does more harm than good as companies like SAE struggle to plan and keep their finances in check. I'm sure the people at SAE are thankful for any budget but I wouldn't be surprised if, behind closed doors, the keep facepalming themselve over those political decisions which always follow up with a smack in the face after giving out some candy.

Reminds me of an abusive relationship ..

I'm a huge advocate when it comes to giving away some equity to employees in order to incentivice them as well as binding them to the company. If you want your people to act like owners, they have to own something or else where's the motivation [1]?

That being said, I agree that the exercise price is a bit cheap.. on the other hand.. It would motivate me, as an employee, a lot more if I knew there's actually a chance to make a few bucks.. Hard to say though. The market cap is still around the £8m mark.. literally nothing.. a 10x would make the company worth just £80m.. but given their current situation (debt + potential dilution) the price is probably (and unfortunately) justified.

Which brings us back to the exercise price: Who's to say that the share price remains at around 1.20 GBX and won't just fall far below that..

At some point they might even consider a reverse stock split just to make it look better..

[1]: https://youtu.be/j_1lIFRdnhA?t=87

Like I said in the other thread: I don't get the optimism here.

@Mehmet66's comment is a reasonable perspective but I'd like to highlight that the CfD funding has already been cut in half for tidal. While we can be lucky that there even is a ring-fenced budget, it's still discouraging to see the governmental support being reduced already even though last year's budget was small to begin with.

Cutting the people who work at SAE some slack.. okay, fine. But I think you guys over-estimate the cost it takes to share updates with shareholders. We're talking about one person who, every now and then, summarizes a few things and puts it on their website or twitter. This is not a complicated marketing-campain where you require your own marketing department, ad-production and strategy team. We're talking about a piece of text that sits on your website.

I'm not going to cut them some slack in this regard. It is a public company, we all own a piece of it and it's our money they want. Is it really too much to ask for an update every month so we can track the progress they make? After all.. it would allow people to talk about the company and the stock more often. Wouldn't hurt if people can comprehend the progress being made on a regular basis..

I can't fully share the optimism. Yes, there's a tidal budget in the next CfD, but the funding was already "just a drop in the ocean" last year and has been cut by 50% already this year.

It's a mistery why they simply can't make a full commitment or leave it be. If they don't support this technology, it will fail. Half-supporting it won't change that. They provide just barely enough funds it would seem for this sector to have a faint heartbeat but they do not go beyond that which, in turn, is beyond me. It's a waste of money to begin with if they don't push through this initial hurdle of mass-producing tidal turbines.

What I'm saying is... "topping up" of "averaging down" on SAE is not an option for me. Their market cap is at £8m today and, while it may be not their own fault or wrongdoing, the company is lightyears behind what has been promised in the past.

When I started to look at SAE I saw countless projects on their website all over the planet which where "in development" or "planning phase" and so on. Today they are not even in the tidal stream turbine business anymore. It does not matter who's to blame for this and/or whether or not it is their fault. It's just a sad fact that SAE wasn't able to deliver anything substantial in the past 3 to 4 years. Not even close.

Seeing the governmental support already deteriorate isn't making is better for me as well.

No idea how they're going to pull off the next MeyGen phase but all I can see is more debt and dilution for existing shareholders ahead and let's not forget we'll have to wait until 2027 until CfD AR4 money starts spinning those turbines. Long way to go..

I'd be glad if someone could convince me otherwise but I've been enjoying the show for long enough now.

I've been down that road and I'll tell you what the most important part of a company is: It's the head. Simple as that. If the top 1 to 3 people are passionate about "the thing" and capable of delivering it.. they will.

Time and time again I've seen businesses fail after their founders left. I'm sure you heard of those stories. The father dies and leaves the business to his son.. a few years later a successful company has gone to waste.

I have been working at a company for some years now and I've seen what happens after the original founders leave the company. And it's not just the company I've been working at, I've been able to observe this process at other former startup companies as well.

So.. I have no idea who runs SAE. Who's this Graham Reid? What's his deal? His passion? Is this a chance for him or just a salary? Does he even care?

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you that any (startup) company will fail if you do not have extremely passionate, dedicated and capable people on top and I can't see any of that for SAE right now.

Obviously, SAE already has a hard time as it is but it's just not apparent to me that they are still driven by a passion. Maybe this used to be the case or maybe there's other reasons why this quality doesn't show.. but from my point of view I can't see any qualities.

Maybe my impression is completely wrong but how would I be able to tell?

I get the frustration. If I didn't know for sure MeyGen existed I'd call them a fraud but the delivered. I too like to go over SAE for their lack of comms but on the other hand: What are they supposed to do? There's just not enough funding and CfD AR5 saw a 50% cut in the ring-fenced budget for tidal. While we can be happy that there even IS a ring-fenced budget, it's disappointing to see that they already reduced the budget instead of increasing it.

SAE & Proteus fight an uphill battle here..

But then again.. What is going on with the 4th turbine? What is the progress on the next MeyGen phase? How's Uskmouth doing? Are there any partnerships or opportunites? What's in the pipeline? Why is it so quiet..?

The silence is disturbing and it's going on for months..

Let's see if they have success in ramping the budget up: "Industry urges UK government to revise AR5 budget"

https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy/comments/11uyhja/industry_urges_uk_government_to_revise_ar5_budget/

Let's see what people think.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy/comments/11wheju/sae_buy_hold_sell_survey/

Well, but also because offshore wind benefits immensely from previous investments into wind energy. So, there has already been billions of investment. Early stage technologies such as tidal stream energy can't compete yet. We need to get to a capacity of one Gigawatt and even from there it's going to be a long way. MeyGen provides 0.6% to that right now and is going to provide 3.4% of that once the next MeyGen phase has been deployed. Long way..

He meant that we'll get to know the final pot structure for CfD AR5.

If there is a ring-fenced budget for tidal like last year, then I'd be confident SAE might get another contract.

I'm a bit pessimistic tbh. They might have to compete with offshore wind in which case I don't think they can succeed this year.

I'll steal all these links for https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy/

Just found it interesting to see how a "scam company" communicates with their shareholders in comparison to SAE https://app.saytechnologies.com/nikola-corporation-2022-q4?filter=all&sort=num_upvotes

Nice but it's just £14k.. Not really a significant amount.

Nein, nein, nein, nein!!

Das hat gar nichts damit zu tun! ;)

Not sure what's your point. Uskmouth really isn't about the name. It's an old coal plant they tried to re-utilize. The name doesn't make money. Energy does.

Deafening silence.. that's SAEs signature move.

I always thought tidal stream energy would be an ideal source for the steel industry. Furnaces require a lot of energy 24/7 and TSE can basically do that reliable with additional storage.

Idk what Uskmouth can or will be used for. Obviously, storage is going to be one thing but producing clean energy should be the ultimate goal.

Really wish we'd have some information here..