Member Info for mister_tidal

It's possible that I'm mixing up numbers. Some time ago I did some calculations on the available data. GWh produced, revenue made etc.

It's somewhere posted on this board.. I recall a capacitfactor of around 26% so.. 6MW yield 1.56MHh.. that's 13.66 GWh per year.

13660 / (6*12) = 189.8 MWh per month per MW deployed.

189.8 * 1.5 = 284.7 MWh per month for rach AR1500.

284.7 * £176 = £50,107.2 per month per turbine

I'm on my phone so.... better look twice

I remember computing the numbers myself around a year ago and iirc I too arrived at £150k per month.

However, revenue means nothing if it's not enough to pay the bills, repay debt and, most importantly, grow the business.

Any revenue that's going to come in will pay the bills, debt and turbines.

SAE won't earn a single pound that they can use to grow the business.

How do I know that?

We wouldn't have this conversation otherwise. SAE can't really make a meaningful profit as of yet. That's the problem the entire industry currently has.

Perhaps sometimes it may seem different, but I do not blame SAE for "failing" or things that happened in the past. I'm aware that TSE is a complicated technology or form of energy.

I can imagine the people who work there being passionate for what they do and that the engineers are doing what they can to achieve their goals.

I am aware of the political games being played. It goes for tidal and, in a way for the conversion project.

I'm not here to point fingers and be mad over things that went wrong.

What I am mad about is the lack of communication and the fact that there is absolutely no effort to communicate plans and progress to investors who are losing big time.

Any money they raised came from investors after all.

I don't say "give me my money back". But I say "convince me that you are still (really) trying!"

Explain to me the plan. The how, the when. I want to know if we're hitting goals or if we're constantly missing them and if so.. why? Turbine #4 ..

I'm mad at the leadership and them not trying to communicate this. After all, it might attract other investors. Tidal is also a niche. Why are they not even trying to advertise it? I'm not talking TV commercials of course or Facebook campaigns. But at least the absolute minimum of social media activities to let us know "we're still here and this is what happened last month".

It's not that hard

Finally a real conversation.

In the end, all being said, there's probably nothing we can do. We can only accept the facts and leave it behind. It's just such a disappointment and we'll, a financial loss of course too but that's on me.

To be honest: I didn't and still do not understand why there wasn't more interest into SAE after they secured the CfD AR5.

Not that I would've sold because of a short-term spike but looking back at when Uskmouth was in the pipeline, a 3x to 4x happened shortly after some positive news even though there were no guarantees.

True, there's still no guarantees as of yet, but the company HAS a CfD and also good chances to get another this year - we might know in July..

So let me ask you this: How can it be that this does not wake at least some interest and how can it be that the company is not selling this as big news. Big news indeed.. MeyGen gets a 5x boost in megawatt capacity and all they got is a single "Ah, by the way, we secured a 15 years (?) revenue guarantee by the government".

All this just doesn't make any sense to me.

SAE should be firing on all channels. This is big news. They should advertise the technology and be much, MUCH louder.

There was talk about the increase of the AR6 budget - never heard ot that again.

How can you not become pessimistic or sceptical after everything that happened in the last three years..?

Them deploying the turbine eventually is something we're all kinda expecting.

This isn't really the point.

It's getting news and updates. I don't care for good OR bad news. I just want to be informed.

It's not the tidal stream turbine company of the world. There's four turbines and one isn't running for ages. Nobody knows why.

What was this thing with ATES? May I remind you that they sold this division for £0.5m while keeping the entire debt? How on earth did they arrive at £0.5m ??

And tidal lover... no offense but this Warren Buffet quote would be almost ridiculously comical if you weren't serious. You're telling us we should be patient and wait 10 years while the C-suit doesn't even own a single share of the company. On top of that it's apparent that nobody in here gives a shred for what Warren Buffet has to say because in that case we'd be investing in a cheap ETF each month. Your quote couldn't be more out of place here ..

I'm sorry.. what? Dividends?

They are drowning in debt, got basically zero revenu and semi-abandoned their still very experimental tidal stream turbine division after not being able to convert the Uskmouth station and having to sell off Greenhighlands, one revenue generating part of SAE to stay afloat.

Dividends? This must be a joke..

The C-suite of the company has the ability to buy around 7% of the company.. worth around £600k iirc.

Somebody remind me: how much did Graham himself in this company so far?

Oh well, he still has 10 years or so to decide. Never mind.

Https://saerenewables.com/investor-relations/contact-us/

As already stated many times before: Do not buy a single share until you see any insiders owning anything. At this point I'm not talking about a measly €5k to £10k.. I want to see Graham buy in the £100k and above range.

Until then this investment is dead to me. Literally, as I can't sell here. Just in case you wonder.

But I'd recommend you take it to SAE themselves. Go yo their website and leave them a message using the contact form.

Not that this would change anything but at least you get it off your system.

True words

Don't expect anything regarding AR 5 before 2024:

"SAE remains on track to achieve financial close of the MeyGen phase 2 project in 2024 with operation starting in 2027."

https://saerenewables.com/delivery-of-next-phase-of-the-world-leading-meygen-project-continues-at-pace/

But honestly.. I am confident that insiders not buying the stock at this level is all you really need to know.. everyone must know that the stock may sky rocket on any particularly good long-term news.

Insiders now buying tells us everything we need to know regarding expectations imo

@OldTownHat and it looks like they do that by offering to repay even more debt. 10% more to be precise.

They are certainly between a rock and a hard place right now.. perhaps the explanation for their continuous silence is simply them struggling to not go under, and basically don't give a sheet about investors right now becuase either they succeed somehow, or there won't be any investors around anyways.

I can't say that I haven't lost hope though because I have.

Let's see if they can survive. Would be a nice surprice to wake up one day and see the market cap in the £50m region..

At this point SAE is either a 10x (tendie) or a total loss.

Surely, it can still go lower than this, but £8m market cap is truly not much that can evaporate at this point.

The slightest hint on a likely/realistic recovery of this company might shoot it back up into the stratosphere, but you have to become increasingly unrealistically optimistic, perhaps to a point where you might want to consider the consultation of professional help.

Literally everything screams "Bankruptcy!" or asks the question "How are they even going to fund CfD AR5 and pay back their debt?!" as the months pass by and there's no clear roadmap communicated to us shareholders.

If that's the case, and I missed it, somebody please share the link..

It's only because I'm at the point where it does not make a difference whether I sell or not because the investment evaporated already and, as stated in the past, this was an "all or nothing"-type of gamble for me.

Looks like it'll be nothing and even though it's not completely unexpected, I'm still disappointed.

I can't say if things are "criminal" but they are certainly unprofessional in some aspects.

To me, SAE is just na entity right now which does not have a personality. The tidal stream turbine businesses is gone to a large extend and now they appear to be in the real estate business by renting over some of the space they cleared up at Uskmouth.

For anything else which they claim to be working on we're lacking evidence. Coal plant conversion projects? Reminds me of the countless tidal stream projects they were promoting on their website years ago. None of which exist anymore except MeyGen. An endeavor so successful, they decided to get rid of the engineering division for £0.5m

This company simply exists and it won't if it can't turn around.

A CEO who does not invest in a company like this is likely to share my concerns and knows even more why he's not investing.

Not entirely sure what the benefit could be of such an exercise because there is really no point in pushing any kind of opinion in SAE.

Nobody cares about this stock if you haven't noticed. There is no news or movement whatsoever. We all know the stock might jump the day SAE offers significant good news but whether or not that's a short time hike is another story. The facts are the facts.

But anyway, apparently you're correlating things which aren't correlated but ask yourself: what difference would it even make? If you want you can keep assuming we're the same person. I can guarantee you nobody cares either way

XD

No need to "talk down" this stock. As I've been arguing in the past: Nobody cares about this stock except a few daytraders and maybe some bots. The rest is institutions that have been funding all this and us retail investors who are basically stuck with an almost total loss as of yet.

Let's assume I'd actually invest the time and money to go to the meeting: What's it going to change? Nothing. It is what it is. There was no insider buying back then when Uskmouth was still in the pipeline. There was none after the getting CfD AR4 and there won't be some insider buys for BESS either.

If I got £290.000 per year working as CEO at a startup which happens to be tradeable on the stock market, and if there where any positive news whatsoever, I'd go deep into my pockets and get myself some descent piece of the pie.

It's absolutely pointless. Now you may ask why I'm still here. Posting, reading and arging. The answer is: I'm online a lot and checking in on this stock and to this forum kinda became a hobby.

Of course, I still kinda hope to get my investment back some day but nothing I do or say is going to have an influence on the outcome. All I do is follow and vent every now and then. Maybe try to safe the next poor guy from this stock. Hope nobody spents a single cent on this except for day trading. But long term investment: You must be an insane lunatic if you read up on the past 3 to 5 years and still come to the conclusion that you want to buy shares.

I recall the "mother of all corrections" statement from Tim Cornelius. Nobody talks about it but it was an attempt to manipulate the market. Tim left SAE shortly after. All his shares, if I got that correctly, where basically worthless.

Now we've got a guy called Graham Reid, zero news, 21% in a company that seems to be worth £0.5m and happens to sell turbines that nobody wants.

Or maybe. Just maybe.. I spent every £ I earn each month on SAE stock because I know the second SAE releases the financial close on the next MeyGen Phase 2 it's a 10x stock which is why I want the share price to drop even further. Maybe that's my agenda. ^^

Not a single insider being long is the redest flag of all red flags. Any news that make the sp go up are probably short lived.

Insiders have all the information. A public company does not have to disclose all the information so insiders not putting their money on this is a terrible sign.

Insider trading is not always meaningful but I'd argue that it is extraordinary meaningful in this case.

Anybody who looks at this company and considers to invest long term should think twice.

Until directors didn't pick up a significant amount of shares I am left to believe that this company is simply going to fail one way or another. No business will ever, EVER succeed if there is not even a single person who leads it with a sense of ownership.

I think I may say that I know what I am talking about in this regard.

In the end, the answer is really much simpler than we all might think. The fact that Graham Reid is being compensated a lofty £290k/y is simply a joke. The way shareholders are kept in the dark for months after months is just the cherry.

Be is BESS or CfD.. all this means nothing if there is not a clear signal that the people who run the company truly believe in the success of the company. But they're not even putting a single Pound on it.

Just don't buy a single share until this has changed although I highly doubt this ever will.

@Tidal_lover you still seem to be unaware how long I'm in this and the fact that I'm basically stuck with my shares as they are basically worthless now. It's not crazy at all.

@keltickilla It's positive news, I don't think anybody disagrees here. It's just not even in the slightest any news anybody who's invested in SAE long-term was interested in and we all know that this company failed 79% of what we're here for now that they only own 21% of what this particular "thing" was.

Good luck to you daytraders. For long-term holders this is just irrelevant noise until this company can actually deliver something which proves that the business if financially profitable or at least viable.

For the people who don't seem to get it: Nobody really "owns" this company. At this point it's more like a governmental institution that pays out salaries to their employees. It's literally not more than this.

It is why this company does not really have a lot of shareholders XD

All they have is debt