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Onetomany Premium Member Posted in: ANGS Posts: 483

Price: 0.50 No Opinion

RE: Positive indicators5 Jan 2024 14:35

Barney I think once funding terms are clarified and signed then that in itself will have a major boost. Gas I’m expecting to reach 120+ over the coming cold months and a storage partner update also due within Q1.

Take a look at the CPR and the many references to it by the BoD. End of March I expect 1.5p of not more. It’s all upside from here but still some variables.

"Could it be a deliberate ploy not to settle the outstanding £68M tax as a way of putting off potential takeover predators at this ‘low’ price. As any takeover suitor would have to pay this extra money?"

They'll factor that in when they make a bid - RKH worth (say) £ 500mm - offer £430mm

PaulD is correct - they are focused on what needs to be done. I am sure the issues have been known for years by the BoD - the fact they now have to publish them (in small print) in the Accounts means they are now material and probably very imminent.

At the end of the day neither FIG nor Navitas are going to let RKH affect matters - if necessary I'm sure Navitas will swap more cash for RKH equity - and extra £ 50mm on a $1.14 - $2.5 Bn project is peanuts to them and their financial backers - it's in the noise.

I think you underestimate Onetomany - he's a Black Hole - sucks in information and totally removes it from this Universe

There seems a lot of ifs & buts - more than usual I feel.

I have no doubt that Navitas are powering ahead with Sea Lion and we're only waiting for first oil from Shenandoah for a raft of announcements - probably a week or so later to help build their stock price.

It does seem that RKH will have to be careful- tax, funding, decommissioning.... all will require some careful management.

Since we're paying Sam £ 512,000 a year I guess it's time he earns his money.

" decommissioning provisions relating to the pre first oil wells"

Hmm that seems to indicate that not only the wells drilled to date on Sea Lion - about 11 in the main complex but any future wells drilled as part of development. Several (?most?all?) of the exploration wells were P&A'd so there is no legacy costs for those. The question is can they sanction the project if they can't show they can fund the abandonment liability right now - not after production....... rather strange - but that's what its seems to say.

"Also, no one here mentioned about the 3rd partner…..why no one has shown any interest yet ????"

after all these years anyone is going to wait for the project to be approved by both Navitas and the Falkland Islands - the risks of moving too soon are too great - especially with Trump on the loose. The extension of the pre-emption indicates that Navitas are strengthening their options just in case someone DOES come in for RKH - not a farm-in but a straight corporate buy. As I said this change will make it less likely that some chancers will appear - unless they have deep pockets

"we should see some game changing news soon enough."

yes - that's what we're all worried about - another wipe out for the PI's and a win for the financiers

"In other wirds if there's a bid for rkh then navitas get some first refusal (unless a bidder continues higher and higher)."

It sometimes has happened - especially if the partner with the pre-emption right can't raise the money to meet the third party valuation. Or they think they're happy at their current equity. Traditionally some very large companies avoided 100% ownership on the grounds that you were better off spreading your investments around to keep a balanced long term flow of projects - and to avoid having all your eggs in one basket if the Government changes for example.

''in order to provide the most stable platform for that financing to be completed, the existing reciprocal pre-emption right contained within the Joint Operating Agreement ('JOA') that operates at the asset level, has been extended to cover a **** corporate change of control.'' Anyone have an idea what that might be about??"

It appears that previously if someone made an offer to RKH for Sea Lion only then Navitas had the right to pre-empt the deal - probably by matching the third party offer. That has now been extended so that if someone tries to take out ALL of Rockhopper then Navitas can match that deal as well.

Pre-emption deal are common in the business - they used to be standard in the UK N Sea for example until the Govt stopped them.

The concept is that Navitas have spent a fortune on Sea Lion and they might want more - they also may not like the buyer - it allows them to protect their investment. For investors in the company under offer it's not so good - there is a lot of evidence that the presence of a pre-emption deal lowers the price offered. No-one will expend a lot of effort if all they're doing is pricing the deal for Navitas to walk in and say "thanks" after maybe 6 months work.

In this case it looks like Navitas don't think RKH are likely to be around in the medium term.

We shouldn't look at single days production. They are probably doing maintenance - they often have a low day or two at the end of each month .

However.................................

Look at the forecasts made in 2020 and 2023 - we should be producing 8-9 mmscfd - that's what all the financing and the hedge were built on. ANGS have NEVER met those numbers on a monthly basis and are currently averaging around 30-40% of the forecast (s) at this stage of development.

They also drilled (badly) one of the most expensive oil wells ever drilled in the UK onshore and have installed a compressor - we don't know the cost but it wasn't free..

"Appears to be in the cheap buy zone ?!"

Who would buy UJO? Wressle production probably just about covers the abandonment liabilty and is declining slowly. No-one is going to invest in onshore UK while the current Govt pursues its net zero policies - no-one will invest in the UK OFFSHORE right now. The foreign ventures (Beacon & Reach) are an embarrassment.

"TC, that’s clear. They are discussing both funding plans "

I doubt it's a discussion - the ANGS guys will be standing on the carpet in front of a couple of very hard men who will be telling them exactly what they must do and when and what will happen to them if they don't get it done ASAP

and no Hob-Nobs or china tea cups either

Ground works on the mine and initial building were due to start in April 2017 whilst preparatory work was undertaken in February and March 2017.] In May 2017, Sirius minerals confirmed that construction work had officially started at the site with production of minerals starting in late 2021.

By 2023, the construction works were not complete and the owners issued a revised date of 2027 for the beginning of mineral extraction, together with an increased investment in the construction budget aiming to improve the long-term yield of the seam. In 2024 the projected completion date was extended to 2030.

Onetomany Premium Member

Posted in: ANGS

Posts: 477

Price: 0.30

No Opinion

RE: Recent production21 Jul 2024 21:08

Agreed. Ironically my target of £100m market cap almost exactly matches the indication from the chairman and will ultimately be reached once the fun and games are over.

£100m excluding any upside from acquisitions and increased proven reserves which has been discussed.

Yes, Transfigura are (maybe) allowing them to change to the loan terms - and you know what? They'll extract a price for it......................... and who will pay that OTM? You will...................

Put a comma after "solution" - they're claiming to work on both at the refinancing and the RTO at the same time - .... :((((((

I think I'll mosey on down to the ol' Saloon for a hand of poker and a whiskey now todays news is out - but I'll probably be dealt 2 black 8's and 2 black aces..............

Finance Update

Further to the announcement of 19 May 2025, Angus Energy confirms that while the Company continues to work with Trafigura on a resculpting solution and the potential transaction, Trafigura has granted the Company an extension of the first principal repayment until 31 May 2025.

A "resculpting solution" - new one on me but it probably means even more for Trafigura. One thing is for sure - they're keeping ANGS feet to the fire...... another 4 days only.......

Maybe the NOMADS, who have to approve the RNS, are still driving back from their cottages in the Cotswolds

Like a classic Western -

"Sure looks quiet out there"

just before he gets an arrow in the chest & the Apache arrive