Tim Watts, CFO at Shield Therapeutics #STX presenting at our Life Sciences Investor Briefing Watch Now
US say they'll open the taps on their Strategic reserves
A higher oil price - say +US$ 10 a barrel - is a small help to HHDL/UKOG - another $ 2000 a day - pay for a test engineer anyway..........
Long term implications? Strengthens the case for diversity of supply
Don't get too excited - the same Bloomberg report says that the cut back was precautionary and they expect to be back at 80% production within 48 hours
The BBC reckon the two plants handle 1% and 7% of world oil supplies
The US is currently is lowing down oil production and an ramp up pretty fast.....
"Personally, I’ve always been concerned by operators quoting ‘barrels of oil equivalent’, when reporting test rates, because a
barrel of oil is generally worth so much more than an oil equivalent barrel of gas - especially relevant when dealing with high GORs"
EOGL - the relative pricing is always a bit of a suck it and see. Traditionally the rule of thumb was always 6:1 - ie a barrel of oil was worth 6 times 1 Mcf (million cu ft) of gas. On the ground this obviously varied depending on tariffs, quality etc etc but it held for a long time.
there was an interesting discussion last month on the Gaffney Cline weekly update site about how this was becoming less and less so. http://gaffney-cline-focus.com/august-16-2019
They can't simply ramp up production overnight
Firstly they probably need a bigger pump , then they need more storage and this is still legally a TEST
Road tankers are easy - probably a couple of days notice is all that's needed - plus they need to tell the refinery of course
The OGA haven't (yet) signed off production and I understand that "officially" you are not supposed to profit from a well test - its purely for scientific information........ don't ask me why.................
"The numbers being quoted back in 2016 for the same well far exceeded those being stated today albeit for much shorter periods. " - which is why you carry out A LONGTERM TEST - you could do an Angus and produce at a rate of 3500/1500/ whatever (check with DHC) over say over 10 minutes - the critical thing is to ensure it will keep chugging away - most people seem to have missed the bit in the RNS that indicates they still aren't seeing any water - which is very very interesting from a naturally fractured reservoir.
I'd guess they were keeping the rate down to ensure they don't pull water in and to minimise the number of daily tankers ahead of the Planning Approval.
Stockraiser "personally believe that SS was intentionally vague re: rig arrival so as not to alert the swampies. It could even be a night move over this weekend"
You are right about SS - he isn't going to publish an arrival time and date
But it won't be at night or on a weekend - they can't move anything on at night, Sat p/m, Sunday or any Bank Holiday. Having spent 4 years, God knows how much cash and sweat getting on the right side of the Council they won't blow it in 7 days. I expect it might be very early morning (when the Swampies sleepeth deep) or even late evening(when they're in the pub)
I think the rig left Broadford Bridge early dawn.......
Ah yes - UKOG only have planning permission , a rig turning up, probable Production authority by year end, a record of producing 200 barrels a day for well over a year , prospects on the Isle of Wight and elsewhere in the Weald...
Angus have Lidsey and JTP, a well at balcombe that their partner is trying to get out of and they clearly don't understand, and the promise of possible gas from saltfleetby in 2 years time
i can see why you invest in Angus......................
"Apologies for being pedantic, but I think its better to use imperial gallons (35 to a barrel) rather than US gallons (42). GLA"
EOGL - the problem is the oil boys all work in US = barrels instead of gallons generally
Shell & BP and the continentals work (mainly) in metric and most N Sea/UK operations are in a bastardised mixture
the one to watch is anything to with gas - the conversion from imperial/US to metric and vv depends on the "standard" temperature & pressure . I believe the Dutch use a different "standard" than the UK that makes about a 10% difference in the conversion numbers..........
"Surely now SS can give us a cpr update as nothing to worry about"
Rich - he said in today's RNS "It is planned to commission a new Competent Persons Report to establish the Company's net Reserves following completion of HH-2z production testing in the Autumn."
So 4 months at least - 2 months to get the results of HH-2z and 2 months to run the numbers - they cost around £100k I believe so he's been holding off until he knew they had both PP and Tellurian in the bag before wasting money....................
DHCrook"how do you see UKOG funding another 4 wells or any hiccups?"
With Planning permission they go to the OGA for Field Development Approval - with that the resources become Proven Reserves - banks will lend on that no problem...............
Taking roughly 3 weeks would be the pumping out of the remaining fluid/water to
hopefully see oil behind. This represents c. 160 barrels (42 gallons per barrel) of losses
that were not reported before due to inaccurate records (Angus noted that
unreported losses were extremely common in the drilling of all wells both oil and
water). After this time then either:
a) They may see actual formation water (confirmed via salinity testing) and will
b) They may see oil and would move onto Stage 2 "
use of words like "hopefully", "may" etc don't fill me with a great deal of confidence I'm afraid
it's clear they still haven't a clue what is there.......................
People forget that SCDM (Bouygues) had a Weald connection - they were in with Celtique in various joint ventures - that didn't go anywhere
Celtique sold Broadford Bridge to UKOG and it looks like SCDM fancied part of the action - but they didn't /couldn't cut a deal with UKOG so bailed out
Companies like that have long memories and don't like being ignored by small fry.................