Member Info for Mirasol

"Never know they maybe not allowing it to be scheduled for legal reasons "

Sting - if they add Loxley to any meeting without giving the legally required notice period they will be sued from here to kingdom come. They will also be booted off the council.

I know everyone ON HERE wants the planning reheard as soon as possible but the Councillors clearly don't - they're dragging it out as long as possible. UKOG could go the legal route but that doesn't make any friends with the council - and TBH I'm not sure that UKOG are too upset at letting Loxley drift down the road a bit - gives them more time to build up Turkey and work on Arreton - both of which have a lot more potential

The Agenda for the 29th is at
https://mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk/mgListPlanItems.aspx?PlanId=228&RP=120
Cabinet - 29 September 2020

Covid 19 Update

(Phase 2) Special Educational Needs and Disability (SEND) capital development programme for expansion of provision(s) in Surrey for academic year 2021/2022 New

Surrey Safeguarding Adults Board Annual Report 2019/2020 this item

A31 Blackwater Valley Relief Road (BVR) Balancing Pond Restoration Procurement

Accelerating the Introduction of Ultra Low / Zero Emissions Buses and Community Transport Vehicles into Surrey

Procurement of Highways Contracts

Housing Infrastructure Fund Forward Funding - Funding Allocation of £41.8 Million to the A320 North of Woking

Community Project Fund Initiation New

Surrey County Council Covid- 19 Strategic Reset

Hyperconverged System Procurement New

Property Transactions

Sorry - wrong committee - the Extraordinary Meeting on the 29th September is the Council Cabinet not the Planning Committee

The Cabinet has responsibility for

"The Cabinet leads the preparation of the Council's policies and budget and makes recommendations to the County Council on the major policy plans and the budget and Council Tax. The Cabinet and Cabinet Members take decisions within this framework of plans and procedural rules approved by the Council, including key decisions. It is held to account by the Council for its performance"

Nothing to do with Planning I'm afraid

I think that's a good point Panther - the Egdon model is to get the acreage work it up then farm. Right now its hard to see who would come in - UKOG and ANGS are busy elsewhere and have no money, IGAS move so slowly you can't bear to watch. UJO might come in on the back of a success at W Newton.

N American 's are all near bust and TBH the Onshore UK isn't very attractive for new investors.

I'd say the COS for FINDING some hydrocarbons is quite high - maybe 30-40% - there is oil in some of the nearer wells

The issue here is probably the size and the ECONOMIC COS - volumes appear to be low possibly due to reservoir being breached in the active tectonics of the area

IIRC UKOG commissioned a new state -of- the- art stack a couple of years back which reduces emissions , noise and light especially set up to meet UK EA restrictions

President are working in places with less restrictive rules & regs and are almost certainly using a standard US style burner (offshore known as a "Seagull scorcher").

Thanks Ocelot - my mistake - less said about Brockham the better given the past history there...

I remain convinced they have decent chance of making money at SFB - not hundreds of millions but enough to self fund. Then I expect they'll do a UKOG and start looking overseas - that's where Lucan has the contacts , that's where you have a chance of doing things quickly - when you think that Balcombe was drilled 7 years ago......... and still not properly tested....... A24 prospect - over 10 years old......

"we should get the lidsey update. EA may bring a pleasant surprise approval on brockham as well."

Lidsey is a true dog - it's tiny and quite why ol' Lenigas was bought out has never been explained.

The EA & the planners aren't in the habit of changing their minds about "the Balcombe test would compromise the protected landscape of the High Weald area of outstanding natural beauty and establish a continued presence of industry which was ”not appropriate to the area. ........ the application was not in the public interest and would be of minimal benefit to the local economy”. These aren't issues like noise, light, traffic, water, bats etc that you can change - they're fundamental view of the location.

What is really bad about the Sefton/Stryker villainy in 2015 is that the NOMAD, Allenby Capital, is still trading away merrily......

"Miirasol , the broker is not named and does not exist. The text refers to ANGS own analyst."

Thanks - we know how much credence to give that opinion then.......................

10p - when do you think we'll get an RNS explaining the results of HH2z, the timing of a new CPR and production guidance for th remainder of 2020?

Who was the broker who issued a BUY recommendation? LSE don't list anyone...............

"I think it would be nice if somebody did be interesting to see if there is a consensus of opinion of what the pps would be reasonable ?"

I t wouldn't be nice - it would be a bloody miracle.

I can't see it - no-one was interested when they thought they could be a billion barrel in place prize. Now you're looking at a 200 bopd minnow. The last CPR had 2P resources of 1.498mm bbl - at $10 a barrel that would be $ 15 mm or £ 11.8 mm but the results of HH2z show that those numbers are incorrect - and probably too high. There's also the issue of having to restore HH, and BBr, sites. People don't py for exploration acreage such as Turkey.

" I have seen pads where 4 wells have been drilled and the TD's are only 400 feet apart"

Could I ask where? that sounds like shallow stripper wells in the USA....................

Actually it doesn't matter - they clearly aren't progressing any work on HH2 or HH2z (or the Kimm) and they're off to Turkey as a distraction - it had better work

" I find them far less convincing than Trice. "

There's the problem - Trice WAS very convincing - he was true believer in his geological ideas and his model of the field. I think those who trash him as crook or con-man are totally wrong.

He convinced himself with a passion that he had found the Elixir of Life and anyone who disagreed was mad or bad. You could see how he removed other BoD members and senior staff - it became a mania TBH. Any evidence that went against the perceived wisdom was ignored or only the best possible explanation put on it. Perhaps that 's what was needed to drive the project forward when the oil business was in general free-fall.

Once the evidence and the facts started to prove him wrong there was no way to turn - the number of options is severely limited for the current BoD. I suspect its not as bad as you'd think - they're taking a big hit now and maybe will be able to rescue more value - 14k bopd only needs a small increase in the price of oil to make a big difference here.

"a year ago we were at 1.3p, with nothing due at Brockham,Balcombe, SFB.today we have all 3 in sight"

yeah from a vantage point of 0.975 p - we're still looking UP at the price a year ago.............

Yes - almost all wells will be vertical for the first 500 - 1000 ft then normally people try and keep pilot holes (HH2) at less than 30 degrees to save on logging costs and to make them easy to drill - some basic maths suggests that this would put HH2 around 125m -175m east of the well site at top Portland (around 2000 ft vertical depth)

Still very close in production terms

As for the sweet spot since they aren't producing the well we can take it that they missed it - so they also require a new reservoir model - that may , or may not, give them an idea of where to drill next. Either a new well or another HH2 sidetrack (HH2y) won't come cheap.

"Why don't they cap the horizontal part of the HH2Z well with its water issue's and flow it like HH1 as vertical well. "

Technically this can be done - tho at some cost - cement in the horizontal section and hope the cement holds (quite often it lives micro channels that might still allow some water). The drill out the casing into the original , more vertical HH2 well bore and complete.

The big problem is that this is quite close to the HH1 bore hole - remember the HH2z well is horizontal for a kilometre or so away from the HH2 well bore. If you pump that at 200 bopd as well you don't get 2 x 200 bopd as essentially you are sucking on 2 straws very close to each other - you'll get more but only for a short time. The danger is that you over-pull the reservoir, drop the pressure too quickly and hasten movement of water into the both wells.

I'd be surprised if they haven't looked at it but the benefits are probably out-weighed by the costs & the danger - which is they have no production at all in a few months. I doubt even this BoD could survive that

Come on then Ian - how much are they producing on average?

I say over a month it's 200 - 220 bopd daily average - what do you say?

You know they're scraping the bottom of the barrel when we get onto the "lost of unseen tankers a day" shtick. The only more desperate ploys are "they're storing it all on site waiting for the oil price to ZOOM up" and 2 there's a secret pipeline they're using to export thousands of barrels a day"

Does any think that if they were making 500 bopd on average that the company wouldn't be issuing all sorts of statements and having SS on TV?