Member Info for Mirasol

'Joint ventures should not be necessary for a operating company like UKOG.

Actually all most all successful oil companies use JV's - it spreads your money and the risks (political, financial, operational, geological) - far better to have 30% of something than 100% of nothing

I think that when the history of UKOG is written Steve Sandersons apparent dislike of partnerships and JV's will loom large

It'll be at least 6 weeks after they start drilling before they get anywhere interesting - a problem before that (remember when the rig motor caught fire at HH) can always happen but until they get close to the top reservoir its all smoke and mirrors

Expect the rampers to ramp and the derampers to deramp like hell over the next 6 weeks - but late November is when then any information will leak - and given the past record here it WILL leak.............

"he answers the easy questions, "

Which "he" - since SS never answers any questions I guess you mean Lucan?

"The placing should mean Turkey can now accelerate: they need to get a move on, if they are not to be caught out by Winter conditions."

I wouldn't be too worried Ocelet - the Turks work all the time in those conditions (like the Canadians, the Russians and the N USA. One of the Aladdin videos showed them drilling in a seriously snow covered landscape

" Perhaps you could name these so called wells that didn't get a permit first time round."

Much easier if you list the ones that did - but lets see in the last few years........ Horse Hill, Balcombe, Wressle, Preston New Road, Ellesmere Port, Altcar, Roseacre Wood, Woodsetts, Holmwood, Markwells wood 2, KM8, Kirkleatham, ..............................

well for a start Lucan actually answers investors questions - UKOG just keeps totally quiet and continues the dilution month in month out

There was always a significant risk that they would turn it down - its hard to remember a single case where an exploration oil well was granted a permit first time round in S England. Anyone who'd done any research knew that - it was the irresponsible pump crew that helped drive the price up for a few days.

And you can't sue the Council unless you can prove corruption

he's probably looking at blue v red - which we all know is an artefact of the system

If Buys exceed sells the price goes up - if he price doesn't move or worse declines it tells you you've got it wrong

seems to have gone missing - no mention of the A24 prospect in a long time

As has been said no mention of a CPR indicates they're going to continue a policy of no hard information on HH

"Mirasol struggles with Arithmatic"

as you do with basic English my boy

"It's 1.375bn new shares not 1.7bn."

Wow thanks for the correction - do you think it makes a difference ocelot? I always thought UKOG was better run than ANGS - but even tho ANGS are still serially incompetent the dilution and total lack of shareholder engagement here is beyond belief

" You have to look beyond cost. Not one successful business has developed on thin air. SS has a clear vision "

You always cheer me up 10 p - after 5 years of constant spending, constant dilution, monster bonuses, no investment by the CEO, another £ 2++ mm to be raised and now a 1.7 Bn share overhang you still can see the light

We're a tiny oiler struggling to produce 200+ bopd but it's all right lads - it'll all come good - trust old 10p - he only forecast 3000 bopd from HH1 & hh2z..........

Tony13579 Posts: 4,547 Price: 0.20 No Opinion 17/09/20
RE: Tanker AhoyToday 10:53
The first production figures represented 33 tankers per month...
I am confident there are 2 tankers per day and I would expect September’s figures to be in the region of 48 tankers.

Hollybean Posts: 621 Price: 0.19 No Opinion 22/09/20
RE: End of Oct SP.. ?Today 11:54
Invinv with planning and no restrictions,a clear go get passage I'm thinking 3to5p onward and upward too infinity best of luck.

justice4us Posts: 149 Price: 0.19 Strong Buy 22/09/20

RE: End of Oct SP.. ?Today 11:49
concur - 3-4 weeks - multi bag here

InvesterInvester Posts: 1,154 Price: 0.19 Strong Buy 22/09/20

End of Oct SP.. ?Today 11:33
... 1p VERY possible iom... concur - 3-4 weeks - multi bag here

Of course its a STRONG BUY - how else will they shift the latest bunch of 1.7 BILLION shares?

It beggars belief........ and as some posters have pointed out they'll need more later - Turkey is going to cost them another £ 2.8 million on top of the latest raise

"Another top up . Average down to 0.40 . we could hit that in a blink of an eye."

only after the guys in the City dump the 1.7 BILLION new shares issued for 0.2 p thus pocketing a 25% gain I'm afraid

"They’ve had to rely on data provided by Snake Oil. "

This is true but remember that ANGS haven't any data of their own - everything THEY have they got from WINGAS or the Onshore Geological library etc.

Any decent consultant will read all the old reports and any missing data would stand out like a sore thumb. It doesn't matter who hands the data over - even the Archangel Gabriel couldn't add anything extra as it's just never been collected. Of course a different set of experts might come to different conclusions and no doubt ANGS tried to steer things in a positive direction but that pretty much applies to whoever owns the field and whoever is the expert.

The CPR is a fairly honest snapshot and forecast (or guess) - and it would be similar whoever was involved. We need to look at the risks - which would be the same for anyone else and the things which are in ANGS control - such as sourcing the kit - which I'm afraid shows that a leopard has trouble changing their spots

"The CPR is full of exclusions. "

they always are - whatever the asset - the Experts don't want to be sued

Oilfield International , who did the CPR, are mainly Middle East specialists but they've done a wide range of work for decent outfits so I don't think they're too bad. The CPR , which i have read carefully, seems a fair take - issues are flagged and discussed in a coherent manner (which isn't always the case).

Yes there are problems with the 3D - but they're going to be the same for whoever takes over SFB - including the previous owners. Most UK onshore fields don't (eg Horse Hill) don't even have a 3D survey. The production forecast is based on the 17 years of prior production and this will be more accurate than an estimate made prior to production.

However the graph on page 34 shows how, by changing which points you use in the prediction , ultimate cumulative gross production varies from 80 Bcf to over 120 Bcf. (66 Bcf to date). The original recoverable estimate given in Tony Hodges paper in 2004 is around 80 Bcf. The CPR doesn't have a graphic of historic production with time (which is a bit odd) as there is one in an ANGS presentation in 2019 - this indicates 10 - 18 Bcf of further recoverable reserves at low rates.

My concern is that we're much more likely to get the P90 (low) production than the P50 or the P10

"Do you subscribe to those particular odds for SF (circa 6:1), or do you have a different view on the potential SP for a successful operation at SF? What is your average here?"

Croq - I see the main risks are execution (which we're now well aware of) and flow rates. In general few onshore UK fields reach the production levels forecast before development. SFB has the benefit of several years of historic production but it was never a major producer. My worry is that they will have issues that require more money to fix and that they only reach a percentage of forecast flows - I'd be really amazed if they didn't produce anything - it's the size and timing which worry me. Commerciality may be hard to achieve consistently

"it’s also a bit dodgy repeating what the CPR says. Large sections rely on unchecked data supplied by Angus."

Well who else can supply the data? You have to be fair - they guys doing the CPR will look at similar fields elsewhere and bring their experience t bear - but at the end of the day they can't invent data, however badly needed, if it doesn't exist. Hence it's an "opinion".

over the years the value of a CPR has declined - one from a major outfit - Gaffney Cline, or a Sproule etc is still gold standard - but a lot of smaller outfits have waded into a lucrative market. You should look carefully at the company who does the CPR - id its by a small outfit in the UK valuing some asset in S Australia you gave to ask what they bring to the party other than lower costs and being more willing to listen to their paymasters than one of the bigger outfits.

My hope is one decent lender with one set of fees and one aim. And that they will require certain fundamental changes to the ANGS management and insist that the company is run by people who know what they're doing

Then we stand a chance of recouping our investment