Member Info for Mirasol

Ahhhhhh - a blast from the past.... what a character! One of the guys who made AIM investment what it is today.......................

Assuming that you believe the CPR then "The current share price of 0.80p offers, therefore, a discount of 83.2% to that figure"

I would suggest that sums up the market view of ANGS chances of commercial success - 17% or 6:1 against

That would be a pity - firstly that means 4 or more sets of fees for the slugs in the City and secondly you get conflicting interests and agreements

I think he sounded very cautious on how long this was going to take to nail down

"Another way of putting it: buy ANGS today for £5.72m and get back £6.12m over a period of, say, 3 years and 3 months, less interest but with the subsequent cash flow from Saltfleetby and everything else thrown in for free. Not sure, financially, that makes much sense."

That's a fair summary - you COULD buy the company and make a medium term profit - but it depends on delivering the project on time and cost, getting the production right and the gas price. If you bought the company you'd sure as hell get rid of the motley crew in place right now so you might remove risk 1 but the other 2 are still lurking........

It'll be very interesting to see what conditions any lender places on the company if they lend them £ 12 mm........

Almost all reservoirs produce water eventually and it was always a matter of some technical discussion as to why HH produced so LITTLE water during the very extended test. AFAIK they have never reported water from the Kimm - which is really weird - and the Portland volumes to date are OK - but it would be a lot better if the company gave us some forecast s of what they are expecting so we can see if they are under or over preforming.

The water injection well had two roles - water disposal and reservoir pressure maintenance - it seemed from discussion at the time that they expected the two to balance

"When did the Twitterati spread the rumour of the well being a dead duck? "

When SS stopped reporting it's "potential" in glowing terms

"It’s in the rns’s They lowered the pump. I believe it has reduced the percentage of gas to oil produced"
may 183 bopd gas 0.02 mmscfd
june 158 bopd gas 0.03 mmscfd

Oil down gas up I'm afraid

"We would hope to have soft commitments or so-called strong indications for the larger part of the facility during October, however we can’t guarantee third party timetables. "

So let's say Christmas? Whoever is lending will have a technical team crawling all over the numbers - especially after the enormous screw-up on costs estimates. They wouldn't believe ANGS if they told them the sun rises in the East without checking.......

Ocelot it's all in the SFB CPR page 54 - in the first 4 years of production SFB will generate net ANGS, post tax around £ 21mm total - out of that they have to pay back the £ 12 mm loan + Interest.

This will be around £ 15 -£ 17 mm so they have to run the rest of the company on less than £ 1mm a year - or dilute further. It's very close

Rastuss question "If the big banks don’t lend less than $20mm, which is about £15mm, why not just take the extra £3mm?" is simple - any bank (and these won't be BIG banks) - will only lend against security - and it looks like £12 mm is the max that ANGS can offer. In most cases the number is done by taking the Proven reserves (as determined by the Bank 's people not ANGS) and applying a multiple to account for risk - say 65%

Not good - water cut 23% , total number of barrels of fluid (oil plus water) at 207 cp 201 in May
Oil production only 65% of April's number

" I will bring debate, and that when I see rubbish responses from folks that would prefer to brag about their investing mastermind trading results, or rubbish responses from known haters,"

So says Cinderland - a new poster with a total of 20 posts - in fact its clearly Troll Hunter/Troll basher/Troll hater again

Panther - I take a look a couple of times a week - its very biased but at least you get all the news in one place and in some detail

As for shale gas I reckon the market gave up on that in the UK after the problems Cuadrilla had at Balcombe back in 2013/14 - anything that generated all that trouble was never going to work as routine in the UK

"With Dave's very clever building of the company, if he has the money, why would he not take a slice of this pie ?

because it's run by your old "uncle" Heid - and their estimates no longer inspire confidence

You're probably right Panther - I didn't have the data in front of me when I wrote. PMO certainly came on their holdings in EDR in an unusual manner. Inertia is a good word to describe PMO - it's unbelievable that they are just about the only one of the small UK companies set up in the 80's who still exist!!!

EDr is such a small asset it must be missing off the corporate spreadsheet...............

"I'm not sure why PMO and Yates got into this in the first place. I presume it was for exposure the tight gas "fracking" play ?"

Yates have been associated in various JV's with EDR going back at least 20 years - I seem to remember they (Yates) may have been active onshore UK about 30 years ago so maybe they just like working with Egdon.

I think PMO are in as they bought Alkane who had swapped their unconventional acreage for EDR stock - that gives them exposure to UK fraccing developments at very low cost - plus a couple of days out of London every year. Total were involved in a similar arrangement (without buying the stock) IIRC a few years back

Someone advised Lucan that they could use (cheap) N american kit to restart SFB and someone was horribly wrong.

It can't be Lucan - he knows nothing about such kit - so who was it? Who has previous on cutting corners and trying to get away with things...................

Now who could that be?????

Toe if "Ukogs true value is at least 2.5p" why does the market think its only worth 7% of that number?

Surely SOMEONE would wade in to capture that enormous value?? Or is it just that it's actually correctly priced (which is what markets do in the long term) and it's a dog

UKOG price prediction 31/12/2019 (23.59pm)Today 09:52 Entry Now Closed Good Luck On Your Predictions Entries !!!)

Lonely_Shooter: 33p
TrollHunter2: 20.7p
Legalease: 20p
DavidWK: 13p
Free-Money: 11.73p
Vaghellis: 9.6p
SandyBugler: 8.86p
johnnybbad: 8.09p
Ontheotherhand: 8.04p
Tymers: 8p

Panther - I'd agree - I suspect the 2 large LTH's are also quite happy with the situation for whatever reason and aren't pushing for change

"Salary paid to CEO 2009-2019 before bonuses and pension etc £1.65mm"

I don't think you'll find many other small oilers were the CEo pays himself so little over such a long time - look at UKOG last year - Steve Sanderson paid himself a bonus of £ 310,000 on top of a salary of £ 314,000 plus £142,000 in shares in a year when he'd drilled a very expensive dry hole and cratered the stock price.